TürkiyeWTA SamsunFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Fiona Crawley #234United States2Oksana Selekhmeteva #101Spain1

Sets 4-6 · 6-4 · 6-4Wed 7 Oct 2026, 10:00 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions5–645%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageOksana Selekhmeteva · 133 places

Fiona Crawley

United States

American player, born 7 February 2002. Her WTA profile listed her at No. 253 in singles, while Tennis Abstract records a career-high No. 182 on 2 March 2026.

Current ranking: #234
Peak ranking: #182 · 2026
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: —
Height: —

Oksana Selekhmeteva

Spain

Reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 71 in 2026. A left-shoulder injury caused a seven-month absence in 2023; no current source found indicating it remains active.

Current ranking: #101
Peak ranking: #71
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 172 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Oct 2026, 02:16 · Europe/Bucharest

The fifth seed meets a lower-ranked opponent in good form in the Samsun second round: Oksana Selekhmeteva, No. 101, against Fiona Crawley, No. 234, both straight-sets winners in their openers.

Selekhmeteva's higher level and recent winning make her the likely winner, though her 9.3 double faults a match and a 2-of-9 first-set record on hard keep it open. At 1.85 she is the one quoted price that offers value; Crawley at 1.95 is one to leave.

Context

The split shows her hard-court matches have tended to start badly and recover, so a fast start from Fiona Crawley would not by itself settle this one. Four of those nine matches featured a second-set tiebreak and her second sets averaged 11.0 total games, which points to longer, tighter closing sets. Nine matches is a small sample, so this is a pattern to watch rather than a settled habit, and her opening win over Lola Radivojevic did come in straight sets.
- Selekhmeteva won 2 of 9 first sets and 7 of 9 second sets on hard courts between 1 August and 6 October 2026
- Her first sets averaged 3.6 games won against 5.6 lost; her second sets averaged 5.8 won against 5.2 lost
- Four of her nine hard-court matches included a second-set tiebreak
That straight-sets habit matters against an opponent whose own hard-court results have often stretched to three sets, because it suggests Crawley's wins arrive without the extra set. She has also won 10 of her 14 second sets, so the later stages of a match have been productive for her. The limitation is the level of opposition: much of this sample came outside the top 100, and her first-round win over Bronzetti is the strongest recent result in it.
- Crawley is 9-5 in 14 hard-court matches tracked between 7 August and 5 October 2026
- Seven of those 14 matches finished 2-0 and four went to a deciding set
- She has won 10 of 14 second sets and 8 of 14 first sets
That volume of free points gives Fiona Crawley repeated openings in Selekhmeteva's service games, which is the clearest route to the breaks she would need. Selekhmeteva's first serve has held up when it lands, with 62.7% of first-serve points won, so the pressure sits specifically on the second delivery. She has still won eight of 15 matches in this window, so the serve trouble has been costly without being decisive.
- Selekhmeteva has averaged 9.3 double faults a match across 15 matches, 139 in total
- She has won 40.4% of second-serve points in that window, 201 of 498
- Her first-serve points won stand at 62.7%, 468 of 747
Bronzetti was ranked 132 and has been a WTA main-tour regular through 2026, so beating her in straight sets is a step up in opposition for a player sitting at No. 234. Crawley needed only two sets in her opening match of the week, which keeps her workload light before this round of 16. The limitation is scope: it is one opening-round win, and her other recent run in Turkey, the Adana quarter-final, ended in a three-set loss after she led the deciding set by a break twice.
- Crawley beat Lucia Bronzetti 6-2 6-4 at the WTA Samsun Open
- Bronzetti was ranked 132 and Crawley 234 for that match
- Crawley came into Samsun off the Adana WTA 125, where she qualified and reached the quarter-finals
ConfirmedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 02:14 · Europe/BucharestTennis Majorswww.tennismajors.com · 5 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Selekhmeteva is the higher-ranked, seeded player who has been winning matches at this level and opened her week with a straight-sets win.
- Selekhmeteva is ranked 101 and seeded fifth; Crawley is ranked 234
- Selekhmeteva is 5-4 on hard courts in this tracked window (9 matches)
- She beat Lola Radivojevic 7-5 7-6(0) in the first round
- She reached a WTA 125 semi-final in Tolentino in the last week of September
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostOksana SelekhmetevaEstimated chance60%

Games4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Selekhmeteva has rarely won by a wide margin on this surface, so Crawley staying within three games is the more likely outcome.
- Selekhmeteva's hard-court game differential is -6 across 9 matches
- Her 15-match game differential is -13
- Three of her five hard-court wins needed a deciding set
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonFiona Crawley +2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Selekhmeteva's second sets regularly run long, with nearly half of them reaching a tiebreak.
- Selekhmeteva's second sets on hard average 11.0 total games
- Crawley's second sets average 8.9 total games
- Four of Selekhmeteva's nine hard-court matches had a second-set tiebreak
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Selekhmeteva loses opening sets by wide margins often enough to keep first-set totals short.
- Selekhmeteva's first sets average 9.1 total games on hard
- She averages 3.6 games won and 5.6 lost in first sets
- Crawley's first sets average 9.8 total games
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Even in a match Selekhmeteva is favoured to win, her own hard-court game record is slightly negative, so a two-game cushion is a reasonable side.
- Selekhmeteva has won 110 and lost 116 games in 9 hard-court matches this window, a margin of -6
- Across 15 matches overall her game margin is -13 (176 won, 189 lost)
- Crawley's hard-court matches average 21.8 total games
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonFiona Crawley +1.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Selekhmeteva's serve troubles and long sets push the expected match length to around the line, with a slight lean above.
- Crawley's hard-court matches average 21.8 games over 14 matches
- Selekhmeteva's hard-court matches average 25.1 games over 9 matches
- Selekhmeteva averages 9.3 double faults per match, creating extra breaks
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 23.5Estimated chance52%

Sets0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Selekhmeteva's second sets have gone her way far more often than not, with her setbacks tending to come in the opening set.
- Selekhmeteva has won 7 of 9 second sets on hard
- Crawley has won 10 of 14 second sets on hard
- Four of Selekhmeteva's nine hard-court matches had a second-set tiebreak
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostOksana SelekhmetevaEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Crawley closes matches in two sets far more often than not, which keeps the straight-sets outcome the slight favourite.
- Crawley's 14 hard-court matches averaged 2.29 sets, with 4 going to a decider
- Selekhmeteva's 9 hard-court matches averaged 2.56 sets, with 5 going to a decider
- Selekhmeteva's hard scorelines: 2-0 twice, 2-1 three times, 0-2 twice, 1-2 twice
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Selekhmeteva has started slowly across this hard-court window while Crawley has taken most of her opening sets.
- Crawley has won 8 of 14 first sets on hard
- Selekhmeteva has won only 2 of 9 first sets on hard
- Selekhmeteva averages 3.6 games won against 5.6 lost in first sets
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostFiona CrawleyEstimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Crawley's clean, two-set wins are the more common shape of her matches and usually finish without a tiebreak.
- Crawley's 14 hard-court matches produced 3 tiebreaks
- Selekhmeteva's 9 hard-court matches produced 5 tiebreaks
- Crawley has finished 7 of 14 hard-court matches 2-0
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance58%

Previous match context available

Fiona Crawley

10W 5L

6-2 6-4#132Lucia Bronzetti

7-5 2-6 6-4#196Elena Pridankina

6-3 6-1#130Noma Akugue Noha

2-6 6-3 7-5#274Lois Boisson

4-6 6-3 6-3#812Adelina Lachinova

6-1 7-6(4)#202Carole Monnet

4-6 6-2 7-6(3)#170Anna Siskova

6-3 2-0 ret.#328Manon Leonard

6-4 6-1#195Julia Avdeeva

7-6(4) 6-3#347Naiktha Bains

6-2 6-1#354Sahaja Yamalapalli

6-4 6-3#99Julia Grabher

6-4 6-3#564Ekaterina Ovcharenko

7-5 6-3#98Simona Waltert

6-4 6-4#110Anastasia Zakharova

Oksana Selekhmeteva

8W 7L

7-5 7-6(0)#178Lola Radivojevic

7-6(5) 6-1#99Julia Grabher

6-1 2-6 6-2#151Ekaterine Gorgodze

5-7 6-1 6-2#190Samira De Stefano

7-5 0-6 7-5#267Federica Urgesi

7-5 6-4#301Nastasja Mariana Schunk

6-3 6-0#76Kamilla Rakhimova

6-2 6-4#361Aoi Ito

6-3 7-6(6)#74Katie Volynets

4-6 7-6(4) 6-3#725Capucine Jauffret

3-6 6-3 6-1#91Taylah Preston

6-0 5-7 6-4#115Mary Stoiana

6-7(6) 6-4 6-3#174Elizabeth Mandlik

6-0 6-7(8) 6-4#361Aoi Ito

6-3 6-2#149Elizara Yaneva

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

FCFiona CrawleyCrawley

Last 15

4–3

9 core stats · 2 even

Oksana SelekhmetevaSelekhmetevaOS

Fiona Crawley carries the stronger recent form — Oksana Selekhmeteva's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In55.7%+4.3pp60.0%

1st Serve Won61.3%+1.4pp62.7%

2nd Serve Won45.9%+5.5pp40.4%

Aces / Match0.9—0.8

Double Faults / Match3.16.2 fewer9.3

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won51.3%+6.2pp45.1%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted46.9%—46.4%

Break Pts Saved53.0%+2.3pp55.3%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won52.8%+3.3pp49.5%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

55.7%1st Serve In+4.3pp60.0%

61.3%1st Serve Won+1.4pp62.7%

45.9%2nd Serve Won+5.5pp40.4%

0.9Aces / Match—0.8

3.1Double Faults / Match6.2 fewer9.3

Return · 1–0

51.3%Return Pts Won+6.2pp45.1%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

46.9%Break Pts Converted—46.4%

53.0%Break Pts Saved+2.3pp55.3%

Points · 1–0

52.8%Total Pts Won+3.3pp49.5%