ChinaATP ShanghaiFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Roman Safiullin #79Russia2Shintaro Mochizuki #123Japan0

Sets 6-2 · 6-3Tue 6 Oct 2026, 04:07 Predictions gradedQ3Hard

Predictions8–373%

Edges3–538%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageRoman Safiullin · 44 places

Roman Safiullin

Russia

Reached a career-high No. 36 in January 2024. His 2025 season ended after the US Open because of injury; he returned from qualifying to reach the Wimbledon fourth round in July 2026.

Current ranking: #79
Peak ranking: #36 · 2024
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Shintaro Mochizuki

Japan

Reached a career-high No. 92 on November 10, 2025 after moving into the Top 100 that autumn. Former world No. 1 junior.

Current ranking: #123
Peak ranking: #92 · 2025
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Grass
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Oct 2026, 02:04 · Europe/Bucharest

Safiullin's more reliable serve against Mochizuki's return game is the tension in this Shanghai qualifier, and Safiullin's stronger recent wins make him the likely winner.

Safiullin at 1.2 is too short; Mochizuki +4.5 games at 2.1 is the strongest of the prices that hold up, alongside over 9.5 first-set games and over 21.5 match games at 2.1, Mochizuki at 3.5 for the opening set and 4.5 for the match.

Context

The qualifying openers took place, with Safiullin playing two sets and Mochizuki playing three. That creates a difference in immediate match load before this fixture. Match-duration data is not available, so the recovery gap cannot be measured precisely.
- Safiullin completed his opener in two sets; Mochizuki needed three sets after dropping the first.
ConfirmedSources checked 6 Oct 2026, 02:02 · Europe/BucharestShanghai Masters resultsen.rolexshanghaimasters.com · 5 Oct 2026
Safiullin arrives in Shanghai having won seven of his 11 tracked hard-court matches in this stretch.
Six of those seven wins came without dropping a set, and the sample averaged 21.2 games a match, so his matches have tended to be settled by a break rather than a long grind. That pattern has not been absolute, though: two of his four defeats in the same sample were straight sets, and four of the 11 matches went past two sets.
- 11 tracked completed best-of-3 hard-court matches, 18 August to 5 October 2026; scorelines 2-0 (six), 2-1 (one), 0-2 (two), 1-2 (two).
- The same sample averaged 21.2 total games and 2.27 sets per match; retirements excluded: 0.
Mochizuki's return game is the stronger half of his profile, and it is what keeps him in rallies against better servers.
A 48% first-serve rate with five double faults a match hands opponents a steady supply of looks on his delivery, which matters against a server as steady as Safiullin. His 40% return-point rate is the best number in his record, so his route into this match runs through prolonged rallies rather than cheap points.
- 15 tracked matches: first serves in 528 of 1099 (48.0%).
- Second-serve points won 247 of 571 (43.3%); 75 double faults across 15 matches (5.0 per match).
- Return points won 434 of 1084 (40.0%).
This is Mochizuki's deepest qualifying progress in four Shanghai appearances, following first-round qualifying exits in his first three visits. It gives this match a tournament-specific milestone beyond the result itself. The prior exits do not describe the conditions or opponents in this edition.
- The Daniel win was Mochizuki's first passage beyond the opening qualifying round in Shanghai.
ReportedSources checked 6 Oct 2026, 02:02 · Europe/BucharestShanghai 2026 match pageen.tennistemple.com · 5 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Safiullin serves and returns better on hard courts than Mochizuki and his recent wins came against stronger opponents.
- Hard-court last-15 record: Safiullin 7-5, Mochizuki 6-9
- On hard, Safiullin lands 63.9% of first serves and wins 73.2% of those points; Mochizuki lands 48% and wins 68.8%
- Mochizuki wins only 43.3% of second-serve points on hard and double-faults 5.0 times per match
- Safiullin's Shanghai wins were 6-3 6-0 over Galarneau and 6-3 6-2 over No. 7 seed Cobolli; Mochizuki lost recently to No. 60 Faria and No. 104 Damm
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonRoman SafiullinEstimated chance75%

Games2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Safiullin's wins in this stretch all came by at least three games, and he takes a larger share of games on this surface.
- Safiullin's game margins in his last six hard matches: +9, -3, +7, -4, +6, +3
- Four of those six finished with a Safiullin margin above 2.5 games
- Safiullin wins 54.8% of hard-court games, Mochizuki 45.3%
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonRoman Safiullin -2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Safiullin has been winning second sets by roughly two games, which usually keeps the total below the line.
- Safiullin's second-set games on hard average 5.55 won to 3.18 lost, a total of 8.7
- Mochizuki's second sets average 9.1 total games
- Neither player's second sets have been tiebreak-heavy on this surface
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Safiullin's typical winning margin sits under five games, so the spread is often survivable for Mochizuki.
- Safiullin's margins in his last six hard matches averaged about +3 games
- Mochizuki's wins in that stretch came by +5, +4 and +2 games
- Safiullin has won 6 of 11 tracked hard-court matches without conceding a set, mostly by four to six games
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostShintaro Mochizuki +4.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Both players' opening sets have averaged just under ten games, so the line sits close to the middle.
- Safiullin's first sets on hard average 9.8 total games; Mochizuki's 9.9
- Safiullin's first-set record is 6 wins and 5 losses with one tiebreak
- Mochizuki's first-set record is 4 wins and 10 losses with two tiebreaks
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Both players' recent matches sit right around the line, with Mochizuki's three-set contests pushing totals upward.
- Safiullin's tracked hard matches average 21.2 total games; Mochizuki's 22.4
- Safiullin's last six totals were 15, 27, 17, 22, 18 and 31 games
- Mochizuki's last six totals were 24, 18, 17, 21, 34 and 20 games
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance52%

Sets4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Safiullin's second-set record on hard is the strongest part of his recent form, while Mochizuki has only broken even.
- Safiullin has won the second set in 9 of 11 tracked hard-court matches
- Safiullin's second-set games on hard average 5.55 won to 3.18 lost
- Mochizuki is 7-7 in second sets across 14 tracked hard-court matches
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonRoman SafiullinEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Mochizuki has started poorly on hard courts far more often than not, while Safiullin has begun his Shanghai matches with a break up.
- Safiullin has won the opening set in 6 of 11 tracked hard-court matches; Mochizuki in 4 of 14
- Mochizuki has lost the first set in 10 of 14 tracked hard-court matches
- Safiullin opened both Shanghai wins with a 6-3 first set
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonRoman SafiullinEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Straight-set outcomes dominate both players' recent hard-court records, and Safiullin has been finishing quickly.
- Safiullin's tracked hard-court scorelines: six 2-0 wins against one 2-1 win
- Mochizuki has been beaten 2-0 six times in 14 tracked hard matches
- Safiullin's two Shanghai wins were 6-3 6-0 and 6-3 6-2
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Straight-set wins are Safiullin's most common recent result and Mochizuki's serve gives him few free points.
- Safiullin's tracked hard-court scorelines: six 2-0 wins, one 2-1 win, two 0-2 and two 1-2 losses
- Mochizuki has been beaten 2-0 in 6 of 14 tracked hard-court matches
- Safiullin's two Shanghai wins were 6-3 6-0 and 6-3 6-2
BetBugs · Set BettingwonRoman Safiullin 2-0Estimated chance54%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent hard-court matches have usually been settled by breaks rather than reaching 6-6.
- 4 tiebreaks in 25 combined tracked hard-court matches
- Safiullin has one tiebreak in 11 tracked hard-court matches
- Mochizuki has three tiebreaks in 14 tracked hard-court matches
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined rates add up to slightly below the line, with Safiullin serving cleanly.
- Combined hard-court double-fault rate: about 7.3 per match
- Safiullin averages 2.3 double faults on hard, the lower half of the total
- Mochizuki's 5.0 per match comes with a 48% first-serve rate
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 7.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined ace rates add up to just under ten, with Mochizuki contributing very few.
- Safiullin's 6.8 aces per hard match plus Mochizuki's 2.5 gives about 9.3 combined
- Mochizuki has 37 aces in 15 tracked hard-court matches
- Safiullin has 82 aces in 12 tracked hard-court matches
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The 1.2 price requires 83.3%, above our 75.0% estimate.

Prediction history

Roman Safiullin: 13/15 recent winner projections matched

13 of 15 comparable winner projections favouring Roman Safiullin matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Roman Safiullin15 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

1 Jul·ATP Wimbledon

#132Roman Safiullin3-2#54Botic Van De Zandschulp

BetBugsRoman Safiullin to win·55%

Matched

1 Jul 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#132Roman Safiullin3-2#54Botic Van De Zandschulp

Roman Safiullin to win

55%probability

Roman Safiullin won

Matched

25 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#127Roman Safiullin3-2#197Jerome Kym

BetBugsRoman Safiullin to win·62%

Matched

25 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#127Roman Safiullin3-2#197Jerome Kym

Roman Safiullin to win

62%probability

Roman Safiullin won

Matched

24 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#127Roman Safiullin2-0#222Kimmer Coppejans

BetBugsRoman Safiullin to win·78%

Matched

24 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#127Roman Safiullin2-0#222Kimmer Coppejans

Roman Safiullin to win

78%probability

Roman Safiullin won

Matched

22 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#131Roman Safiullin2-0#205James Mccabe

BetBugsRoman Safiullin to win·65%

Matched

22 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#131Roman Safiullin2-0#205James Mccabe

Roman Safiullin to win

65%probability

Roman Safiullin won

Matched

16 Jun·Nottingham - Great Britain

#131Roman Safiullin2-0#143August Holmgren

BetBugsRoman Safiullin to win·65%

Matched

16 Jun 2026

Nottingham - Great Britain

#131Roman Safiullin2-0#143August Holmgren

Roman Safiullin to win

65%probability

Roman Safiullin won

Matched

Previous match context available

Roman Safiullin

9W 6L

6-3 6-0#184Alexis Galarneau 6-2 3-6 6-4#23Andrey Rublev

6-3 6-2#7Flavio Cobolli

7-5 6-4#5Daniil Medvedev

6-3 6-3#93Bu Yunchaokete

5-7 6-3 6-4#48Quentin Halys

6-2 6-0#303Fajing Sun

6-4 6-4 6-4#3Carlos Alcaraz

7-6(6) 4-6 6-3#269Hugo Grenier

6-4 6-3#34Hubert Hurkacz

6-3 6-4#142Stan Wawrinka

6-3 6-4#120Sebastian Ofner

7-6(6) 6-3 3-6 6-3#11Novak Djokovic

6-3 6-3 6-3#29Joao Fonseca

6-0 4-6 6-3 3-6 7-6(5)#41Botic Van De Zandschulp

Shintaro Mochizuki

6W 9L

2-6 6-2 6-2#177Taro Daniel

6-2 6-4#60Jaime Faria

6-1 6-4#104Martin Damm

7-5 6-3#187Pavel Kotov

7-5 4-6 7-5#817Linang Xiao

7-6(4) 6-1#187Pavel Kotov

6-1 6-4 7-5#15Jakub Mensik

6-4 6-2#229Francesco Passaro

6-4 6-1#211Braden Shick

7-6(5) 6-4#315Daniel Milavsky

7-5 4-6 6-3#161Soon-Woo Kwon

6-2 2-6 6-3#223Jeff Wolf

6-4 6-3#63Fabian Marozsan

1-6 7-6(5) 6-3#112Dane Sweeny

6-3 6-2#247Hayato Matsuoka

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

RSRoman SafiullinSafiullin

Last 15

7–2

9 core stats · 0 even

Shintaro MochizukiMochizukiSM

Roman Safiullin carries the stronger recent form — Shintaro Mochizuki's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 5–0

1st Serve In65.2%+17.2pp48.0%

1st Serve Won72.5%+3.7pp68.8%

2nd Serve Won55.2%+11.9pp43.3%

Aces / Match6.6+4.12.5

Double Faults / Match2.42.6 fewer5.0

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won38.2%+1.8pp40.0%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted37.4%+11.5pp48.9%

Break Pts Saved70.0%+14.5pp55.5%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won52.3%+4.5pp47.8%

Serve · 5–0

65.2%1st Serve In+17.2pp48.0%

72.5%1st Serve Won+3.7pp68.8%

55.2%2nd Serve Won+11.9pp43.3%

6.6Aces / Match+4.12.5

2.4Double Faults / Match2.6 fewer5.0

Return · 0–1

38.2%Return Pts Won+1.8pp40.0%

Pressure · 1–1

37.4%Break Pts Converted+11.5pp48.9%

70.0%Break Pts Saved+14.5pp55.5%

Points · 1–0

52.3%Total Pts Won+4.5pp47.8%

Roman Safiullin

Shintaro Mochizuki

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Shintaro Mochizuki +4.5

Over 9.5

Over 21.5

Shintaro Mochizuki

Shintaro Mochizuki

Roman Safiullin

Under 2.5

Roman Safiullin 2-0

Result1 of 1 landed

Games2 of 5 landed

Sets4 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Roman Safiullin

Roman Safiullin

Shintaro Mochizuki

Stat Battle