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Predictions graded

Oriol Roca Batalla #342Spain0Francesco Passaro #219Italy2

Sets 1-6 · 6-7Tue 6 Oct 2026, 18:54 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions3–633%

Edges0–40%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageFrancesco Passaro · 123 places

Oriol Roca Batalla

Spain

Spanish clay-court specialist with a career-high singles ranking of No. 150 in August 2024. His 2026 recorded match volume has been entirely on clay.

Current ranking: #342
Peak ranking: #150 · 2024
Current age: 33
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Francesco Passaro

Italy

Italian right-hander from Perugia whose career-high singles ranking is No. 89, reached in February 2025. Official ITF profile data lists clay as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #219
Peak ranking: #89 · 2025
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Oct 2026, 16:50 · Europe/Bucharest

Ranking says Passaro (225) over Roca (308); clay says the opposite, with Roca 8-7 and 54.3% of sets won against Passaro's 4-7 and 39.3%.

Roca is the likelier winner, probably in straight sets. The 2.25 on him for the match, 3.3 for a 2-0 win and 2.1 in each of the first two sets all sit below what that clay record supports, while Passaro's 1.65 in the match and both opening sets asks too much.

Context

His clay split is lopsided: 5-6 in first sets, 3-8 in second sets across the same 11 matches.
A player winning fewer than half his clay second sets hands a favourite a route to closing the match in two. Roca, 8-7 in clay second sets over his own 15-match window, is the side that stands to gain if the pattern repeats, though three of Passaro's four clay wins came in three sets, so he is not unable to turn a second set around.
- Clay second sets: 3 wins, 8 losses across 11 matches (8 Jul-22 Sep 2026)
- Second-set games: 3.73 won, 5.27 lost on average
- First sets on the same sample: 5 wins, 6 losses
- Clay scorelines: 2-1 three, 2-0 one, 1-2 three, 0-2 four
His 15 clay matches break down as six 2-0 wins, two 2-1 wins, three 1-2 defeats and four 0-2 defeats.
That shape favours a two-set finish against an opponent who has lost four of seven clay matches 0-2, and it underpins the two-set lean on this first-round match. It is a small sample, and five of the 15 matches still ran the full distance, so a longer contest is not remote.
- 15 clay matches, 3 Aug-23 Sep 2026: six 2-0 wins, two 2-1 wins, three 1-2 losses, four 0-2 losses
- Eight clay wins, of which six in straight sets
- Average sets per clay match: 2.33
- Five of the 15 matches went to a deciding set
It was his most recent completed clay match before this first round.
It is a reminder that his form line is volatile even against much lower-ranked opponents, and it sits alongside a 4-7 clay record over the window from 8 July to 22 September. Roca has his own recent wobble, losing on 23 September, so neither player arrives on a clean run.
- 22 Sep 2026: lost 6-0, 6-7, 1-6 to Alejandro Juan Mano (rank 584) on clay
- Games in the match: 13 won, 13 lost
He went into that match with wins in three of his previous four clay outings, including a 6-3, 6-2 win over Diego Dedura, ranked 186.
The defeat is the most recent data point and shows his level can drop sharply inside a match, but the 8-7 clay record across the wider 15-match window still reads better than Passaro's 4-7. It is one match, so it should not be treated as a trend on its own.
- 23 Sep 2026: lost 6-3, 4-6, 1-6 to Calvin Hemery (rank 304) on clay
- Games in the match: 11 won, 15 lost

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.25
The read
Roca has a better clay record and wins more sets and games than Passaro on this surface.
- Clay record: Roca 8-7, Passaro 4-7
- Clay sets won: Roca 54.3%, Passaro 39.3%
- Clay games won: Roca 53.3%, Passaro 47%
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostOriol Roca BatallaEstimated chance64%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combined second-set game average is below the 9.5 line.
- Roca's set2 total games average: 9.2
- Passaro's set2 total games average: 9.0
- Combined set2 average: 9.1
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Roca is favored and his matches tend to be shorter, keeping total games under the line.
- Roca's clay average total games: 22
- Roca's straight-set win rate: 6 of 8 clay wins in straight sets
- Combined expected games: ~23
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 23.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Slightly more first sets fall under 9.5 based on the averages and recent scorelines.
- Roca's set1 total games average: 10
- Passaro's set1 total games average: 9.82
- Recent first sets include 6-3 and 6-2
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Roca has a much better second-set record and Passaro often struggles in second sets on clay.
- Roca's clay set2 record: 8-7
- Passaro's clay set2 record: 3-8
- Passaro's set2 games won average: 3.73
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostOriol Roca BatallaEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Roca has won more first sets and has a positive game differential in set1 on clay.
- Roca's clay set1 record: 9-6
- Passaro's clay set1 record: 5-6
- Roca's set1 games average: 5.47 vs 4.53
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostOriol Roca BatallaEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Roca's tendency to win in straight sets and Passaro's frequent straight-set losses point to a two-set match.
- Roca's clay average sets: 2.33
- Roca's straight-set wins: 6 of 8
- Passaro's straight-set losses: 4 of 7
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance57%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most of their clay matches do not feature a tiebreak.
- Roca's clay matches without tiebreak: 11 of 15
- Passaro's clay matches without tiebreak: 9 of 11
- Combined no-tiebreak rate: ~77%
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average fewer than 4 aces per match on clay, keeping the total under 7.5.
- Roca's clay aces per match: 2.7
- Passaro's clay aces per match: 3.5
- Combined average: 6.2
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 7.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined average is below 4.5, and Roca's low double-fault rate helps keep it under.
- Roca's clay double faults per match: 1.3
- Passaro's clay double faults per match: 2.8
- Combined average: 4.1
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 4.5Estimated chance55%

Prediction history

Oriol Roca Batalla: 2/5 recent winner projections matched

2 of 5 comparable winner projections favouring Oriol Roca Batalla matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Oriol Roca Batalla5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

30 Jun·Milan - Italy

#319Oriol Roca Batalla1-2#839Pierluigi Basile

BetBugsOriol Roca Batalla to win·78%

Missed

30 Jun 2026

Milan - Italy

#319Oriol Roca Batalla1-2#839Pierluigi Basile

Oriol Roca Batalla to win

78%probability

Pierluigi Basile won

Missed

29 Jun·Milan - Italy

#316Oriol Roca Batalla2-0#380Daniel Masur

BetBugsOriol Roca Batalla to win·72%

Matched

29 Jun 2026

Milan - Italy

#316Oriol Roca Batalla2-0#380Daniel Masur

Oriol Roca Batalla to win

72%probability

Oriol Roca Batalla won

Matched

23 Jun·Targu Mures - Romania

#316Oriol Roca Batalla0-2#190Francesco Passaro

BetBugsOriol Roca Batalla to win·65%

Missed

23 Jun 2026

Targu Mures - Romania

#316Oriol Roca Batalla0-2#190Francesco Passaro

Oriol Roca Batalla to win

65%probability

Francesco Passaro won

Missed

17 Jun·Parma - Italy

#234Chun Hsin Tseng2-0#320Oriol Roca Batalla

BetBugsOriol Roca Batalla to win·58%

Missed

17 Jun 2026

Parma - Italy

#234Chun Hsin Tseng2-0#320Oriol Roca Batalla

Oriol Roca Batalla to win

58%probability

Chun Hsin Tseng won

Missed

1 Jun·Perugia - Italy

#377Oriol Roca Batalla2-1#502Pietro Orlando Fellin

BetBugsOriol Roca Batalla to win·78%

Matched

1 Jun 2026

Perugia - Italy

#377Oriol Roca Batalla2-1#502Pietro Orlando Fellin

Oriol Roca Batalla to win

78%probability

Oriol Roca Batalla won

Matched

Oriol Roca Batalla

8W 7L

3-6 6-4 6-1#304Calvin Hemery

6-3 6-2#186Diego Dedura

7-6(4) 6-4#230Alejandro Moro Canas

2-6 6-3 6-4#279Stefano Napolitano

6-2 6-2#370Alejo Sanchez Quilez

4-6 6-4 6-1#64Jaume Antoni Munar Clar

6-3 6-0#497Alex Marti Pujolras

6-7(5) 7-6(5) 6-0#568Iliyan Radulov

6-4 6-4#190Facundo Mena

7-6(2) 6-2#320Enrico Dalla Valle

6-1 6-1#189Zdenek Kolar

6-7(4) 7-5 7-5#319Radu Mihai Papoe

6-4 6-1#225Francesco Passaro

6-2 6-4#506Nikita Mashtakov

6-4 6-4#611Yanaki Milev

Francesco Passaro

7W 8L

0-6 7-6(4) 6-1#584Alejandro Juan Mano

7-5 6-1#193Juan Pablo Varillas

3-6 6-4 6-4#83Lorenzo Sonego

2-6 6-2 4-6 6-3 6-2#93Jesper De Jong

6-4 6-2#120Shintaro Mochizuki

7-6(4) 6-4#162Tom Gentzsch

7-6(3) 6-2#217Felix Gill

6-4 6-1#345Nicolas Kicker

6-4 6-1#308Oriol Roca Batalla

4-6 6-4 6-4#314Carlo Alberto Caniato

6-3 6-4#89Jan Choinski

6-7(5) 6-1 7-6(4)#264Dominic Stricker

6-4 6-3#254Martin Krumich

6-1 3-6 6-3#234Maks Kasnikowski

5-7 6-4 7-5#242Henri Squire

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

OBOriol Roca BatallaBatalla

Last 15

5–4

9 core stats · 0 even

Francesco PassaroPassaroFP

Oriol Roca Batalla carries the stronger recent form — Francesco Passaro's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In67.1%+5.3pp61.8%

1st Serve Won66.3%+3.9pp70.2%

2nd Serve Won50.3%+1.6pp51.9%

Aces / Match2.7+1.74.4

Double Faults / Match1.32.0 fewer3.3

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won41.5%+5.7pp35.8%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted52.6%+1.2pp51.4%

Break Pts Saved61.3%+3.3pp64.6%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won51.6%+1.9pp49.7%

Serve · 2–3

67.1%1st Serve In+5.3pp61.8%

66.3%1st Serve Won+3.9pp70.2%

50.3%2nd Serve Won+1.6pp51.9%

2.7Aces / Match+1.74.4

1.3Double Faults / Match2.0 fewer3.3

Return · 1–0

41.5%Return Pts Won+5.7pp35.8%

Pressure · 1–1

52.6%Break Pts Converted+1.2pp51.4%

61.3%Break Pts Saved+3.3pp64.6%

Points · 1–0

51.6%Total Pts Won+1.9pp49.7%

Oriol Roca Batalla

Francesco Passaro

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Oriol Roca Batalla

Oriol Roca Batalla

Oriol Roca Batalla

Oriol Roca Batalla 2-0

Result0 of 1 landed

Games2 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Oriol Roca Batalla

Francesco Passaro

Stat Battle