ChinaWuning - ChinaFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Kasidit Samrej #389Thailand2Enzo Aguiard #438Australia0

Sets 6-1 · 6-3Tue 6 Oct 2026, 10:57 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions8–189%

Edges3–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageKasidit Samrej · 49 places

Kasidit Samrej

Thailand

Reliable public profile detail beyond the supplied match data was limited. Structured data identifies him as a 191 cm right-hander ranked No. 406.

Current ranking: #389
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Enzo Aguiard

Australia

Career-high No. 483 in July 2026. His public profile lists hard as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #438
Peak ranking: #483 · 2026
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Oct 2026, 02:48 · Europe/Bucharest

Two players 49 ranking places apart, both 9-6 in their last 15 hard-court matches, but Samrej won their only meeting 6-4 7-6(4) on 4 September and saves break points far better.

Samrej is the pick to win, most likely in straight sets. Three quoted prices carry some appeal: Samrej to win at 1.95, Samrej to take the first set at 1.90 and Samrej 2-0 at 3.0, while Aguiard's 1.85 match price asks too much of him.

Context

Aguiard's serve has been the tidier of the two across the tracked hard-court sample.
Aguiard is 9-6 in those 15 matches, and the serve has rarely gifted points: 20 double faults against Samrej's 87, a rate of 1.3 per match to 5.8. He also wins 53.4% of second-serve points (204/382) to Samrej's 43.7% (194/444) and saves 61.3% of break points (49/80). His first-serve points won, 74.0% (423/572), is level with Samrej's 73.2% (512/699), so most of the difference sits on the second ball rather than the first.
- Aguiard: 1.3 double faults per match across 15 tracked hard-court matches (20 in total).
- Aguiard: 53.4% second-serve points won (204/382); 61.3% break points saved (49/80); 74.0% first-serve points won (423/572).
- For comparison, Samrej in the same tracked window: 5.8 double faults per match (87 in 15); 43.7% second-serve points won (194/444); 73.2% first-serve points won (512/699).
Samrej has been the harder of the two to break in the tracked sample.
Samrej faced 120 break points in his 15 tracked matches and saved 86; Aguiard saved 49 of 80. That is the widest single gap between two players who are 9-6 over the same number of matches on the same surface. The caveat sits on Samrej's own serve, where he averages 5.8 double faults a match (87 in 15) and converts only 36 of 88 break points (40.9%), so he creates pressure as well as absorbing it.
- Samrej saved 86 of 120 break points (71.7%) across 15 tracked hard-court matches.
- Aguiard saved 49 of 80 break points (61.3%) across 15 tracked hard-court matches.
- Samrej converted 36 of 88 break points (40.9%) and averaged 5.8 double faults per match (87 in 15).
Samrej's 15 matches averaged 2.27 sets, splitting into seven 2-0 wins, four 0-2 losses and only two 2-1 wins. His opening sets have been tight but rarely extended: 9.13 games on average, 4.73 won to 4.40 lost, with no first-set tiebreaks at all in the sample. The counterweight is that four matches went the distance and six featured a tiebreak somewhere, so the straight-set pattern is a tendency rather than a rule.
- Across 15 hard-court matches from 4 August to 9 September 2026, Samrej's scorelines were 7x2-0, 4x0-2, 2x2-1 and 2x1-2.
- His matches averaged 2.27 sets and 21.8 games; six of the 15 featured a tiebreak.
- Set one averaged 9.13 games with 4.73 won and 4.40 lost, and no first-set tiebreaks.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.95
The read
Two closely ranked players with near-identical win rates, but Samrej holds the head-to-head win and the better break-point defence.
- Both players are 9-6 in the last 15 hard-court matches tracked
- Samrej won their only meeting 6-4 7-6(4) in Zhangjiagang on 4 September 2026
- Samrej saves 71.7% of break points (86/120) against Aguiard's 61.3% (49/80)
- Samrej's recent wins include Bernard Tomic (184) and Chun Hsin Tseng (221), while Aguiard lost to Terence Atmane (99) and Matthew Dellavedova (278)
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonKasidit SamrejEstimated chance57%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Samrej's second sets in particular run long, with tiebreaks common.
- Samrej's second sets average 10.4 total games with six tiebreaks
- Aguiard's second sets average 9.53 total games with two tiebreaks
- Samrej's second sets average 5.4 games won to 5.0 lost
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Opening sets for both players rarely reach a tiebreak and generally land under the line.
- Samrej's opening sets average 9.13 total games
- Aguiard's opening sets average 9.40 total games
- Zero first-set tiebreaks in Samrej's 15 matches, two in Aguiard's
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Straight-set outcomes dominate both players' recent records, and that pattern tends to keep the game count under the line.
- Samrej's hard matches average 21.8 games; Aguiard's average 20.7
- Straight sets decided 11 of Samrej's 15 and 13 of Aguiard's 15 recent matches
- Both players serve at around 60% first serves in, a moderate rate
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 21.5Estimated chance51%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set finishes are the clear pattern for both players in the tracked window.
- 11 of Samrej's 15 and 13 of Aguiard's 15 recent hard matches ended in straight sets
- Aguiard's total sets average is 2.13, Samrej's 2.27
- Aguiard has six 0-2 losses and seven 2-0 wins in the sample
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance71%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.90
The read
Samrej starts matches better than Aguiard in the tracked hard-court sample.
- Samrej has won 9 of 15 opening sets on hard
- Aguiard has won only 7 of 15 opening sets on hard
- Samrej's set-one games average is 4.73 won against 4.40 lost
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonKasidit SamrejEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players are strong in set two, so the match-winner edge carries Samrej only narrowly here.
- Samrej has won 9 of 15 second sets on hard
- Aguiard has won 9 of 15 second sets on hard
- Samrej's second sets average 5.4 games won to 5.0 lost
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonKasidit SamrejEstimated chance54%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Aguiard's serve is exceptionally clean, which offsets Samrej's high double-fault rate.
- Aguiard averages only 1.3 double faults per match (20 in 15 matches)
- Samrej averages 5.8 per match (87 in 15 matches)
- Combined recent double faults work out at roughly 7.1 per match
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 7.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set finishes with early breaks are the more common pattern in the tracked sample.
- Samrej had tiebreaks in 6 of 15 matches, Aguiard in 5 of 15
- 11 of Samrej's 15 and 13 of Aguiard's 15 recent matches ended in straight sets
- Aguiard's matches average only 104.8 minutes
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both men serve with genuine pace, and their combined ace rate sits right on the line.
- Samrej averages 6.1 aces per match on hard
- Aguiard averages 6.5 aces per match on hard
- Combined that is about 0.59 aces per game across their tracked matches
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 12.5Estimated chance52%

Kasidit Samrej

9W 6L

6-4 6-4#395Yuta Shimizu

6-2 6-7(6) 6-2#658Sidharth Rawat

6-3 6-1#152Ilia Simakin

6-3 7-6(1)#221Chun Hsin Tseng

6-4 7-6(4)#438Enzo Aguiard

7-5 7-6(3)#184Bernard Tomic

6-1 7-6(2)#500Hiroki Moriya

6-1 6-2#278Matthew Dellavedova

6-4 6-2—Yan Cheng Chen

6-3 6-2—Kai-I Wang

6-4 7-6(5)#797Yuki Mochizuki

6-2 3-6 6-1#556Hyeon Chung

6-1 6-4#289Sergey Fomin

5-7 6-0 6-4#649Kokoro Isomura

3-6 7-5 6-3#856Egor Pleshivtsev

Enzo Aguiard

9W 6L

6-4 6-4#99Terence Atmane

6-0 6-0—Chuan Ding

6-4 6-2#674Filip Peliwo

6-4 6-3—Shanghui Li

6-3 6-1#278Matthew Dellavedova

6-3 6-2#408Masamichi Imamura

6-2 6-0#152Ilia Simakin

2-6 6-3 7-6(4)#439Khumoun Sultanov

6-4 7-6(4)#389Kasidit Samrej

7-6(1) 6-4#439Khumoun Sultanov

6-3 6-4#243Hayato Matsuoka

6-3 7-6(1)#898Jesse Delaney

6-7(9) 7-5 7-6(4)#649Kokoro Isomura

6-2 6-4#798Tianhui Zhang

6-3 7-5#723Yusuke Takahashi

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

KSKasidit SamrejSamrej

Last 15

3–5

9 core stats · 1 even

Enzo AguiardAguiardEA

Enzo Aguiard carries the stronger recent form — Kasidit Samrej's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In61.2%+1.2pp60.0%

1st Serve Won73.2%+0.8pp74.0%

2nd Serve Won43.7%+9.7pp53.4%

Aces / Match6.1+0.46.5

Double Faults / Match5.84.5 fewer1.3

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won36.8%—36.7%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted40.9%+1.4pp39.5%

Break Pts Saved71.7%+10.4pp61.3%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won50.2%+1.1pp51.3%

Serve · 1–4

61.2%1st Serve In+1.2pp60.0%

73.2%1st Serve Won+0.8pp74.0%

43.7%2nd Serve Won+9.7pp53.4%

6.1Aces / Match+0.46.5

5.8Double Faults / Match4.5 fewer1.3

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

36.8%Return Pts Won—36.7%

Pressure · 2–0

40.9%Break Pts Converted+1.4pp39.5%

71.7%Break Pts Saved+10.4pp61.3%

Points · 0–1

50.2%Total Pts Won+1.1pp51.3%

Kasidit Samrej

Enzo Aguiard

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Kasidit Samrej

Kasidit Samrej

Kasidit Samrej 2-0

Result1 of 1 landed

Games2 of 3 landed

Sets3 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Kasidit Samrej

Enzo Aguiard

Stat Battle