ChinaWTA SuzhouFinished

Predictions graded

Daria Khomutsianskaya #291Belarus2Tyra Caterina Grant #156Italy1

Sets 6-2 · 5-7 · 7-5Tue 6 Oct 2026, 05:52 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions7–558%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMika Brunold · 135 places

Daria Khomutsianskaya

Belarus

Khomutsianskaya represents Belarus and is ranked No. 291. Almost all of her recent matches have come on hard courts in China, where she reached the Guiyang semifinals.

Current ranking: #291
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: —
Height: —

Mika Brunold

Italy

Swiss player born 2 October 2004. ITF lists clay as his preferred surface; his career-high ATP singles ranking was No. 289 in August 2025.

Current ranking: #156
Peak ranking: #289 · 2025
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Oct 2026, 01:44 · Europe/Bucharest

A qualifier on a 9-5 hard-court run meets a higher-ranked opponent who has lost three of four on the surface.

Khomutsianskaya's form makes her the likelier winner, though Grant's ranking and a week without a match keep it from being one-sided. The price that holds up is Khomutsianskaya +5.5 games at 1.36; Grant -5.5 at 2.9 needs a margin her recent record has not shown.

Context

Khomutsianskaya's 9-5 hard-court run is built on closing matches out in two sets rather than grinding through deciders.
Eleven of those 14 matches needed only two sets, and eight of her nine wins were straight-set victories. Second sets were her strongest stretch: 10 wins from 14 with an average of 5.29 games to 3.64. For this first round that points to sets decided by a small margin if she gets ahead, though the same record shows only three of the 14 matches reaching a third set.
- 14 completed hard-court matches from 2 September to 5 October 2026, one retirement excluded
- Record of 9 wins and 5 losses; eight of the nine wins came in straight sets
- 11 of 14 matches finished in two sets; 10 of 14 second sets won, averaging 5.29 games to 3.64
Grant's hard-court results in this window are the weakest part of her recent record, with the ranking advantage sitting opposite a negative game margin.
She took three of the nine sets she played in those matches and won only one of four second sets. Her break-point conversion on the surface was 23.6%, 13 of 55, which limits how far she can pull clear inside a set. Against a qualifier arriving with more recent match wins, that ranking advantage has to be earned rather than assumed.
- Four completed hard-court matches, 24 August to 29 September 2026
- 1 win and 3 losses, with 36 games won and 47 lost
- 3 of 9 sets won; 13 of 55 break points converted (23.6%)
Both players open the main draw at a WTA 125 hard-court event, so neither has a completed match at this year's tournament to draw on before this round. Khomutsianskaya reaches it from qualifying on the same hard courts, while Grant's first competitive match of the week is this one. The event occupies -11 at the Sungent International Tennis Center, setting a seven-day window for a deep run without any altitude or surface-adaptation condition attached to the venue. Structured data lists clay as Khomutsianskaya's preferred surface and indoor hard for Grant, so the outdoor hard court here is not an obvious match for either player's stated preference.
- Round 1 match listed for October 6, 2026 on Court 3 at the WTA 125 Suzhou Open
- Suzhou Open runs -11, 2026 and is staged at the Sungent International Tennis Center in Suzhou Industrial Park
ConfirmedSources checked 6 Oct 2026, 01:42 · Europe/BucharestWTASchedulewww.wtaschedule.com · 5 Oct 2026
Two qualifying wins put Khomutsianskaya into the main draw but also added competitive mileage on the same hard courts immediately before this round. Grant has not played since a first-round loss at Jingshan on September 29, so the two arrive with opposite recent workloads. The open question is whether the extra qualifying matches leave Khomutsianskaya better adjusted to the courts or heavier in the opening round, since wins over lower-ranked opposition are a weaker test than a match at Grant's ranking level. Qualifying also handed Khomutsianskaya two match wins on the venue's courts, which is a modest counterweight rather than a decisive factor.
- Entered the Suzhou main draw with a qualifier designation
- Won qualifying matches against Yujia Huang and Katarina Zavatska before the first round
ConfirmedSources checked 6 Oct 2026, 01:42 · Europe/BucharestFlashscorewww.flashscore.com · 4 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Khomutsianskaya has the longer and better run of hard-court results and arrives off a straight-sets win, while Grant has lost three of four on this surface.
- 9-5 on hard in her last 14 matches, with 8 of her 9 wins in straight sets
- Grant has won 1 of 4 hard-court matches in this window, taking 43.4% of games
- Came through two qualifying rounds, beating Zavatska 6-4 6-1 most recently
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDaria KhomutsianskayaEstimated chance52%

Games4 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.36
The read
Only a heavy Grant victory clears this line, and her hard-court results show a negative game margin in three of four matches.
- Grant has been outscored by 11 games across her four hard matches this window
- Grant's break-point conversion on hard is 23.6%, limiting runaway sets
- Five of Khomutsianskaya's last six hard matches ended with a margin of two games or better
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonDaria Khomutsianskaya +5.5Estimated chance88%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Clearing this line needs a clear Grant win, and only one of her four hard matches this window produced a positive game margin.
- Grant's hard-court margin this window is -2.75 games per match
- Khomutsianskaya's listed hard matches average roughly +2.3 games per match
- Only one of Grant's four hard matches ended with her ahead on games
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonDaria Khomutsianskaya +3.5Estimated chance67%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Khomutsianskaya has kept a positive game margin across her hard-court run while Grant has been outscored by roughly three games a match on this surface.
- Khomutsianskaya's six listed hard matches give a game margin of +14, about +2.3 per match
- Grant's four hard matches this window: 36 games won, 47 lost
- Grant converted 23.6% of her hard-court break points
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonDaria Khomutsianskaya +1.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets for both players average under nine games, with comfortable margins inside Khomutsianskaya's set wins.
- Khomutsianskaya's second sets average 8.93 games on hard
- Grant's second sets average 8.75 games
- Khomutsianskaya's second sets are decided 5.29 to 3.64 on average
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Khomutsianskaya's opening sets commonly finish at nine games or fewer, and neither player has taken a first set to a tiebreak.
- Khomutsianskaya's first sets average 8.79 games across 14 hard matches
- Grant's first sets average 9.75 games across four hard matches
- No first-set tiebreaks recorded for either player on hard
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set finishes dominate both players' recent records, keeping most of their matches close to or below this total.
- Khomutsianskaya's hard-court matches average 20.4 total games over 14 matches
- Grant's four hard matches average 20.75 games
- Straight-set finishes are the norm for both: 14 of their 18 combined samples
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 20.5Estimated chance53%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players close out matches quickly when they are on top, and the large majority of their recent hard-court results needed only two sets.
- Khomutsianskaya has 11 straight-set results in 14 hard matches
- Grant has three straight-set results in four hard matches
- Of Khomutsianskaya's nine wins on hard, eight came in straight sets
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Khomutsianskaya's second-set record on hard is the strongest part of her sample, and Grant has lost three of four second sets.
- Khomutsianskaya has won the second set in 10 of 14 hard matches
- Grant has won 1 of 4 second sets on hard
- Khomutsianskaya's second sets average 5.29 games won to 3.64 lost
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostDaria KhomutsianskayaEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Khomutsianskaya has won more than half her first sets this window while Grant has split hers, giving the home player a slim opening-set lean.
- Khomutsianskaya has won the first set in 9 of her 14 hard matches
- Grant is 2-2 in first sets across four hard matches
- Khomutsianskaya's first sets average 4.93 games won to 3.86 lost
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonDaria KhomutsianskayaEstimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Neither player's hard-court matches reach 6-6 often, and set totals average below the tiebreak threshold.
- Only 3 of Khomutsianskaya's 14 hard matches included a tiebreak
- Grant has no tiebreaks in four hard matches this window
- Combined hard-court sets average under nine games for Khomutsianskaya
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance76%

Previous match context available

Daria Khomutsianskaya

10W 5L

6-4 6-1#266Katarina Zavatska

4-6 6-4 7-6(4)#437Unknown Player

3-6 6-4 7-5#168Alevtina Ibragimova

6-2 6-0#744Yuhan Wang

6-4 6-2#579Ruien Zhang

6-1 6-0#773Darja Suvirdjonkova

6-1 6-1—Marianna Shikhanova

6-3 6-4#437Unknown Player

6-4 6-2#583Junhan Zhang

6-1 7-6(4)#442Chengyiyi Yuan

6-3 4-6 7-6(8)#295Yufei Ren

5-2 ret.#187Darya Astakhova

6-4 6-2#421Sijia Wei

6-2 7-5#303Kyoka Okamura

6-3 6-4#143Joanna Garland

Tyra Caterina Grant

9W 6L

6-4 6-1#220Aliona Falei

6-3 6-4#50Anhelina Kalinina

5-7 6-2 6-3#120Himeno Sakatsume

6-2 6-4#302Savannah Broadus

6-0 6-3#307Martina Trevisan

7-5 6-3#27Marie Bouzkova

6-4 6-2#56Katie Boulter

6-4 7-6(5)#230Harmony Tan

6-4 6-4#143Joanna Garland

6-1 2-6 6-4#91Taylah Preston

7-5 0-6 6-2#146Leyre Romero Gormaz

6-2 6-3#187Darya Astakhova

6-4 6-1#479Tatiana Pieri

7-6(3) 2-6 6-2#189Varvara Lepchenko

3-6 6-3 6-3#298Lisa Zaar

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

DKDaria KhomutsianskayaKhomutsianskaya

Last 15

7–1

9 core stats · 1 even

Tyra Caterina GrantGrantTG

Daria Khomutsianskaya carries the stronger recent form — Tyra Caterina Grant's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1567.4%+8.5pp58.9%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1565.1%—65.6%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1546.7%+1.4pp45.3%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/152.5+0.63.1

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/152.52.8 fewer5.3

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1546.7%+1.8pp44.9%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1544.9%+3.8pp41.1%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1555.6%+3.3pp52.3%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1552.7%+1.8pp50.9%

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

67.4%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+8.5pp58.9%

65.1%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15—65.6%

46.7%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+1.4pp45.3%

2.5Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+0.63.1

2.5Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/152.8 fewer5.3

Return · 1–0

46.7%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+1.8pp44.9%

Pressure · 2–0

44.9%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+3.8pp41.1%

55.6%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+3.3pp52.3%

Points · 1–0

52.7%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+1.8pp50.9%

Daria Khomutsianskaya

Mika Brunold

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Daria Khomutsianskaya +5.5

Result1 of 1 landed

Games4 of 6 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Daria Khomutsianskaya

Tyra Caterina Grant

Stat Battle