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Predictions graded

Carles Hernandez #784Spain0Petr Nesterov #2982

Sets 3-6 · 6-7Tue 6 Oct 2026, 15:36 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions3–633%

Edges2–250%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantagePetr Nesterov · 486 places

Carles Hernandez

Spain

Hernandez is a 175 cm right-hander with a two-handed backhand. Hard is listed as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #784
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Petr Nesterov

Born 7 March 2003 and right-handed with a two-handed backhand. Public profile results identify a recent career-best singles ranking of No. 365; no reliable preferred-surface or current injury-trajectory detail was found.

Current ranking: #298
Peak ranking: #365
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Oct 2026, 02:54 · Europe/Bucharest

Nesterov is ranked 298 to Hernandez's 784, but he arrives from two three-set qualifying matches while Hernandez has not played since 2 October and has won the first set in four of five hard-court matches.

Nesterov should still win, probably over three sets. Nesterov at 1.18 to win, 1.29 for the first set and 1.25 for the second offer nothing at those prices; Nesterov 2-1 at 4.25 and Hernandez for the first set at 3.3 do offer something.

Context

Nesterov arrives through qualifying rather than directly in the main draw. His route included consecutive three-set matches on 4 and, creating a concrete workload difference before this fixture. The Barton win also establishes that he converted the immediate main-draw opportunity, although it is only one qualifying result.
- Nesterov defeated Barton 3-6, 6-4, 6-1 in Villena qualifying .
- He had also played a three-set qualifying match against Charles Chen the previous day.
ConfirmedSources checked 6 Oct 2026, 02:52 · Europe/BucharestPetr Nesterov player match recordwww.flashscore.com · 5 Oct 2026
Hernandez, ranked 784, has used fast starts to keep himself in front early against this level of field.
Four first sets from five completed hard-court matches, won by an average of 5.6 games to 3.2, is the clearest route Hernandez has against a higher-ranked opponent. It also carries an asterisk: one further hard-court match in that period was excluded from the sample because of a retirement, and the window covers only 22 September to 2 October.
- Hernandez won 4 of 5 first sets across five completed hard-court matches from 22 September to 2 October 2026, averaging 5.6 games won to 3.2 lost.
- His second-set record in the same five-match sample was 3-2, so the edge is concentrated in the opening set.
- One additional hard-court match in that period was excluded from the sample because of a retirement.
This fixture begins without a prior meeting to provide direct matchup context. It is relevant background for the Villena first round. It does not establish a tactical or form difference between the players.
- No prior head-to-head match is recorded for Hernandez and Nesterov.
ReportedSources checked 6 Oct 2026, 02:52 · Europe/BucharestCarles Hernandez v Petr Nesterov head-to-headmatchstat.com · 5 Oct 2026
Hernandez arrives at this first round having won the opening set in his most recent match and then lost the next two.
That 2 October defeat is the most recent evidence on Hernandez before this first round, and the 6-2 opening set fits the fast-start pattern. The 0-6 third set is one lopsided scoreline inside a five-match hard-court window, not evidence of an injury or of a continuing problem, and it came after four days without a match.
- Hernandez lost 1-2 to Lars Goran Verwerft on 2 October 2026, winning the first set 6-2 and then losing 4-6, 0-6.
- That was his most recent completed match before the 6 October kickoff; he had not played in the intervening four days.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Petr Nesterov

1.18fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 84.7%

−14.7ppshort

Nesterov is the higher-ranked player with better hard-court results and recent match wins, though he has played a lot of tennis.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.18
The read
Nesterov is the higher-ranked player with better hard-court results and recent match wins, though he has played a lot of tennis.
- Nesterov is ranked 298, while Hernandez is ranked 784.
- Nesterov is 4-1 on hard this period with a 57.0% game win rate.
- Nesterov has won 10 of 15 overall matches and 24 of 39 sets.
- Nesterov won two three-set qualifying matches on Oct 4 and Oct 5.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonPetr NesterovEstimated chance70%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Nesterov often plays long three-set matches, and any three-setter in this sample has gone past 22.5 games.
- Nesterov's five hard matches averaged 25.6 total games, with four going three sets.
- Hernandez's five hard matches averaged 19.0 total games, with three straight-set wins.
- All three-set matches in both players' recent hard samples exceeded 22.5 total games.
- Nesterov's hard matches averaged 2.8 sets, Hernandez's averaged 2.2 sets.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 22.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hernandez's quick first-set wins and Nesterov's 3-6 losses suggest short first sets are slightly more likely.
- Hernandez's hard first sets averaged 8.8 total games, with three of five under 9.5.
- Hernandez won first sets by scores like 6-2, 6-3, and 6-1.
- Nesterov's first-set losses were often 3-6, totaling 9 games.
- Nesterov's hard first sets averaged 10.0 total games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined second-set average is below 9.5, and Nesterov has several comfortable second-set wins.
- Hernandez's hard second sets averaged 9.0 total games.
- Nesterov's hard second sets averaged 8.8 total games.
- Nesterov won second sets by 6-1 and 6-2 in two of his last five hard matches.
- Nesterov's hard second sets totaled 9, 7, and 8 games in three of five matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Nesterov has been dominant in second sets on hard, winning four of five.
- Nesterov won the second set in 4 of 5 hard matches, averaging 5.6 games to 3.2.
- Nesterov's hard second-set record is 4-1.
- Hernandez won 3 of 5 hard second sets but lost the second set in his most recent match.
- Nesterov's hard sets won rate is 64.3%.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonPetr NesterovEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Nesterov frequently drops a set before winning, and his recent qualifying matches both went three sets.
- Nesterov's five hard matches averaged 2.8 sets, with four going the distance.
- Nesterov won 2-1 in three of his five hard matches.
- Hernandez's five hard matches averaged 2.2 sets, with two going three sets.
- Nesterov's two qualifying wins on Oct 4 and Oct 5 were both three-setters.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 3.30
The read
Hernandez has consistently started matches well on hard, while Nesterov has often begun slowly.
- Hernandez won the first set in 4 of 5 hard matches, averaging 5.6 games to 3.2.
- Nesterov lost the first set in 3 of 5 hard matches, averaging 4.6 games to 5.4.
- Hernandez's only first-set loss on hard was a 4-6 against Domingos.
- Nesterov lost first sets to Barton, Chen, and Marques.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostCarles HernandezEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 4.25
The read
Nesterov has frequently lost the first set but recovered to win in three sets on hard.
- Nesterov won 2-1 in three of five hard matches.
- Nesterov's hard scorelines include three 2-1 wins and one 1-2 loss.
- Nesterov came back from a set down in both qualifying wins on Oct 4 and Oct 5.
- Nesterov's hard matches averaged 2.8 sets.
BetBugs · Set BettinglostPetr Nesterov 2-1Estimated chance50%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Neither player has reached a tiebreak in their recent hard matches, so the match is more likely to finish without one.
- Nesterov's five hard matches had zero tiebreaks.
- Hernandez's five hard matches had zero tiebreaks.
- Nesterov's hard break points saved is 73.2%.
- Hernandez's hard matches had no tiebreaks in five attempts.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance70%

Previous match context available

Carles Hernandez

9W 6L

2-6 6-4 6-0—Lars Goran Verwerft

6-3 6-2#702Samir Hamza Reguig

6-4 6-4—Tanapatt Nirundorn

6-4 6-4—Daniel Domingos

6-1 6-1—Caspar Schuetze

7-6(8) 3-0 ret.—Enrique Carrascosa Diaz

1-6 6-3 6-4#878Iannis Miletich

6-4 5-7 6-4#446Sergi Perez Contri

6-4 5-7 7-6(1)#417Ryan Nijboer

6-2 7-6(3)—Oriol Font

6-4 3-6 6-1#668Imanol Lopez Morillo

3-6 6-4 6-4#653Yaroslav Demin

7-6(4) 4-6 6-4#638Carlos Lopez Montagud

6-1 6-0—Miguel Angel Machado

7-5 6-4—Mateo Luis Alvarez Sarmiento

Petr Nesterov

10W 5L

3-6 6-4 6-1#288Hynek Barton

3-6 6-3 6-2—Charles Chen

7-5 1-6 6-4#594Goncalo Marques

6-4 6-2#330Marko Topo

6-4 4-6 6-3#700Giorgio Tabacco

6-4 1-6 6-0#361Carlos Taberner

7-6(6) 3-6 6-4#619Yanaki Milev

6-7(3) 7-6(4) 6-3#559Dimitris Sakellaridis

6-1 7-6(5)#392Gabriele Piraino

7-5 6-3#326Radu Mihai Papoe

6-4 6-1#610Adrian Andreev

6-4 7-6(5)#381Sebastian Sorger

7-5 6-1#556Lorenzo Angelini

3-6 6-3 6-1#295Carl Emil Overbeck

6-3 1-6 6-4#445Eero Vasa

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

CHCarles HernandezHernandez

Last 15

3–5

9 core stats · 1 even

Petr NesterovNesterovPN

Petr Nesterov carries the stronger recent form — Carles Hernandez's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In65.5%+3.9pp61.6%

1st Serve Won64.3%+5.1pp69.4%

2nd Serve Won47.5%+2.1pp49.6%

Aces / Match2.1+1.43.5

Double Faults / Match2.9—2.7

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won44.4%+0.8pp43.6%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted47.7%+1.8pp45.9%

Break Pts Saved59.7%+2.1pp61.8%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won51.5%+1.1pp52.6%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

65.5%1st Serve In+3.9pp61.6%

64.3%1st Serve Won+5.1pp69.4%

47.5%2nd Serve Won+2.1pp49.6%

2.1Aces / Match+1.43.5

2.9Double Faults / Match—2.7

Return · 1–0

44.4%Return Pts Won+0.8pp43.6%

Pressure · 1–1

47.7%Break Pts Converted+1.8pp45.9%

59.7%Break Pts Saved+2.1pp61.8%

Points · 0–1

51.5%Total Pts Won+1.1pp52.6%

Carles Hernandez

Petr Nesterov

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Carles Hernandez

Petr Nesterov 2-1

Petr Nesterov

Petr Nesterov

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Carles Hernandez

Petr Nesterov

Stat Battle