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Predictions graded

Vilius Gaubas #123Lithuania2Joao Domingues #598Portugal0

Sets 6-1 · 7-5Mon 5 Oct 2026, 15:15 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions9–0100%

Edges0–20%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageVilius Gaubas · 475 places

Vilius Gaubas

Lithuania

Lithuanian player, age 21, seeded 14th in the 2026 US Open qualifying draw. Contemporary reporting describes clay as his most comfortable surface.

Current ranking: #123
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Joao Domingues

Portugal

Domingues is the Portuguese player in this tie, ranked No. 598 and competing in his home country. He plays right-handed with a two-handed backhand. Reliable career detail beyond that is thin.

Current ranking: #598
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Oct 2026, 20:13 · Europe/Bucharest

Gaubas sits 455 places above Domingues but has lost six of ten clay matches this season, and Domingues has one tracked clay match to read.

Gaubas looks the likely winner, though not at 1.1 to win or 1.2 for the opening set. The prices worth attention are Domingues at 4 for the first set and 5.75 for the match.

Context

Domingues, ranked 596, brings almost no current clay evidence into the Braga first round.
That one match showed he could take a set off a top-250 opponent on clay, winning the second-set tiebreak before losing the third 4-6. It also caps what can be claimed: a single result from July, lasting 175.7 minutes, cannot establish a clay trend for October. The practical read is that his surface form is unknown rather than poor, so the case for him leans on Gaubas's own clay results.
- 18 July 2026: Joao Domingues lost 1-2 to Timofey Skatov (ranked 204) on clay, sets 4-6, 7-6, 4-6
- One completed clay match in the tracked sample, lasting 175.7 minutes over 33 games, 15 won and 18 lost
- Not a retirement; the second set was decided by a tiebreak that Domingues won 7-6
The 141st-ranked Gaubas carries a losing clay record this season despite the 455-place ranking gap in this draw.
Seven of those ten matches finished in straight sets, and the four defeats that came without him winning a set show how often he has been beaten cleanly on the surface. His scoring margin is close to level in both games (47.9%) and sets (10 of 23), which is a long way from the gap his ranking suggests. The favourite's edge here is real but narrower than the ranking alone implies, particularly against an opponent with so little clay evidence of his own.
- Ten clay matches tracked for Vilius Gaubas from 7 July to 8 September 2026: 4 wins, 6 losses
- Four of those ten ended in straight-set defeats and three in straight-set wins; average 21.9 games and 2.3 sets per match
- Gaubas won 47.9% of games (105 of 219) and 43.5% of sets (10 of 23) on clay in that sample
The Braga Challenger is staged on outdoor clay at Clube Tenis de Braga, and this is a first-round meeting. Clay is the surface Gaubas lists as his preferred one, while Domingues' recent tracked record is built almost entirely on hard courts, so the change of surface is the clearest structural contrast in the draw. The listing fixes the round and surface but says nothing about fitness or current form, which the pre-match samples have to supply.
- Gaubas and Domingues meet in the 1/16 round of the Braga Challenger on 5 October 2026
- The fixture is listed on clay at Clube Tenis de Braga
ConfirmedSources checked 4 Oct 2026, 20:12 · Europe/Bucharestnb-bet.comnb-bet.com · 4 Oct 2026
The match is second on Centre Court after the 12:00 fixture, which sets the practical start time and warm-up conditions for both players. Placement on the main court rather than an outside court means a later start in the Portuguese afternoon and a fuller crowd. The listing carries no information about how either player has handled the conditions this week, so it reads as schedule context rather than a playing advantage.
- The Gaubas-Domingues first round is scheduled on Centre Court
- It follows the 12:00 match between Marques and Sanchez Izquierdo
ConfirmedSources checked 4 Oct 2026, 20:12 · Europe/BucharestTennisTempleen.tennistemple.com · 4 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Gaubas is ranked far higher and Domingues has been losing to much lower-ranked opposition in recent weeks.
- Gaubas is ranked 141, Domingues 596
- Gaubas on clay this season: 4 wins, 6 losses, 47.9% of games won
- Domingues's only clay match in the sample was a 1-2 loss to Timofey Skatov (204)
- Domingues's recent defeats came against players ranked 344, 387 and an unranked opponent
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonVilius GaubasEstimated chance70%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The larger clay sample belongs to Gaubas and points to matches finishing well short of this line.
- Gaubas's clay matches average 21.9 games
- Gaubas won 47.9% of games on clay this season
- Four of Gaubas's 10 clay matches ended in straight-set losses
- Domingues's clay sample covers only one match
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 27.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets in Gaubas's clay matches average above this line and his second sets are often his loosest.
- Gaubas's clay second sets average 10.4 total games
- Gaubas's clay second sets average 4.9 games won and 5.5 lost
- Two of Gaubas's 10 clay second sets reached a tiebreak
- Domingues's only clay second set had 13 games
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The average opening set in Gaubas's clay matches lands just below this mark.
- Gaubas's clay first sets average 9.1 total games
- Gaubas's clay first sets average 4.6 games won and 4.5 lost
- Only two of Gaubas's 10 clay first sets reached a tiebreak
- Domingues's clay first set this season finished 4-6
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance53%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Gaubas is the stronger player and has split opening sets evenly against better clay opposition than Domingues.
- Gaubas has won 5 of 10 opening sets on clay
- Gaubas's clay first sets average 4.6 games won and 4.5 lost
- Domingues lost his only clay first set this season 4-6
- Gaubas is ranked 455 places above Domingues
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonVilius GaubasEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Gaubas is the better player but his clay second sets have been his weaker phase.
- Gaubas has won 4 of 10 second sets on clay
- Gaubas's clay second sets average 4.9 games won and 5.5 lost
- Domingues won his only clay second set 7-6
- Gaubas's overall clay set record this season is 10 wins from 23
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonVilius GaubasEstimated chance59%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The clay sample for Gaubas shows straight-set finishes in the clear majority of his matches.
- Seven of Gaubas's 10 clay matches ended in straight sets
- Gaubas's clay matches average 2.3 sets
- Domingues's two most recent straight-set matches were both losses
- Gaubas has won 2-0 three times on clay this season
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance57%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace rate for both players sits below this line even before clay's dampening effect.
- Gaubas averages 3.2 aces per match on clay
- Domingues averages 1.3 aces per match over his last 15 matches
- Combined clay-season average is below 5 aces per match
- Gaubas's clay matches average 114 minutes
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 5.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Most of Gaubas's clay matches have been settled without a tiebreak.
- Seven of Gaubas's 10 clay matches had no tiebreak
- Gaubas's clay sets average 4.6 to 4.5 games in the first set
- Gaubas's clay matches average 2.3 sets
- Domingues's recent straight-set losses were both 5-7, 5-7
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The two players combine for close to four double faults per match on average, leaving this line around even.
- Gaubas averages 1.6 double faults per match on clay
- Domingues averages 1.9 double faults per match over his last 15 matches
- Domingues hit 3 double faults in his one clay match this season
- Gaubas served 63.2% first serves in on clay
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance52%

Vilius Gaubas

6W 9L

6-4 6-4#77Hamad Medjedovic

6-2 3-6 6-0#406Pavel Lagutin

6-7(3) 7-6(5) 7-6(5)#178Harry Wendelken

6-4 6-3#161Marco Cecchinato

6-3 7-6(1)#263Kilian Feldbausch

2-6 6-4 6-4#223Max Houkes

6-2 6-3#69Facundo Diaz Acosta

7-6(7) 7-6(5)#232Thiago Moura Monteiro

6-2 6-3#291Genaro Alberto Olivieri

6-1 7-5#205Luka Pavlovic

6-1 6-3#66Pablo Carreno-Busta

7-6(1) 7-5#93Jesper De Jong

6-4 6-2#69Facundo Diaz Acosta

6-3 6-7(5) 6-2#121Nikoloz Basilashvili

6-3 6-4 7-6(2)#86Kyrian Jacquet

Joao Domingues

7W 8L

3-6 6-4 7-6(4)#344Michael Geerts

7-6(4) 6-2#401Vadym Ursu

7-5 7-5#387Robin Bertrand

6-4 3-6 6-1#764Rafael Izquierdo Luque

6-3 3-6 7-6(3)—Julien Penzlin

6-4 6-7(5) 6-4#204Timofey Skatov

6-4 7-6(5)#523Fabrizio Andaloro

6-3 6-3#359Tiago Torres

1-6 6-4 7-6(3)#667Maxwell Mckennon

6-3 5-7 6-2#523Fabrizio Andaloro

6-2 1-6 6-3#642Mario Gonzalez Fernandez

6-3 6-4#643Tiago Cacao

7-6(5) 6-4#681Pablo Martinez Gomez

6-4 6-0#764Rafael Izquierdo Luque

4-6 7-6(4) 6-2#459Emile Hudd

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

VGVilius GaubasGaubas

Last 15

3–4

9 core stats · 2 even

Joao DominguesDominguesJD

Joao Domingues carries the stronger recent form — Vilius Gaubas's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In14/15 · 15/1563.5%+2.9pp66.4%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/1567.7%+4.2pp63.5%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/1549.7%+2.0pp51.7%

Aces / Match14/15 · 15/153.9+2.61.3

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/151.8—1.9

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/1536.5%+2.0pp38.5%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/1543.6%+8.0pp51.6%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/1560.2%+2.4pp57.8%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/1549.2%—49.2%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

63.5%1st Serve In14/15 · 15/15+2.9pp66.4%

67.7%1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+4.2pp63.5%

49.7%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+2.0pp51.7%

3.9Aces / Match14/15 · 15/15+2.61.3

1.8Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/15—1.9

Return · 0–1

36.5%Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+2.0pp38.5%

Pressure · 1–1

43.6%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/15+8.0pp51.6%

60.2%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/15+2.4pp57.8%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

49.2%Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/15—49.2%