Terence Atmane #46France11 – 2Bernard Tomic #160Australia2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

The higher-ranked left-hander has been competitive against top-50 opposition and should control more rallies than an opponent whose recent wins came at a lower level.

• Atmane is ranked No. 99 and is the No. 8 seed in Shanghai qualifying; Tomic is No. 184 and unseeded.
• Atmane is 6-5 on hard in the tracked window, with recent wins over Etcheverry (No. 30) and narrow 6-7 6-7 losses to Zverev (No. 2).
• Tomic's 9-6 hard record has come largely against opponents ranked 299 or lower in his last three wins.
• Atmane's completed-match feed excludes two retirements and he was reported to have retired on 30 September.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Tomic's serve has kept him within a few games of opponents in almost every recent match.

• Tomic has lost only two of his last six matches by more than four games.
• His game record over those six matches is 88-79.
• Atmane's recent wins over Aguiard and Palan finished with four and seven game margins.
• Tomic averages 8.1 aces per match, which helps him hold serve and keep sets close.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Atmane's second sets have been notably longer than his first sets, often reaching a tiebreak.

• Atmane's second sets average 11.2 games on hard.
• Five of Atmane's 10 second sets on hard went to a tiebreak.
• Tomic's second sets average 10.1 games.
• Three of Tomic's 15 second sets reached a tiebreak.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Tomic has been losing only a game or two per match, so staying within two games is a reasonable base case even in defeat.

• Tomic's recent completed matches show a +9 game margin across six matches, a rate of +1.5 per match.
• His last two wins finished 18-15 and 18-14 in games.
• Atmane's recent winning margins were 12-8, 12-5 and 13-9, with his losses tight as well.
• Both players won about 51-53% of their games in the tracked window.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

First sets between these two sit right around ten games, so going past 9.5 is marginally the more likely outcome.

• Atmane's first sets average 9.8 games on hard.
• Tomic's first sets average 10.1 games on hard.
• Only 1 of Atmane's 10 first sets and 3 of Tomic's 15 first sets reached a tiebreak.
• Both players hold serve well, with Tomic winning 74.9% of first-serve points.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players tend to play long sets, and a three-set match is common enough that the total sits right around this line.

• Atmane's hard-court best-of-three matches average 23.8 games.
• Tomic's hard-court best-of-three matches average 24.9 games.
• Combined three-set rate is 10 of 25 matches (40%).
• Tomic averages 8.1 aces per match and wins 74.9% of first-serve points, favouring holds.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Atmane starts matches better than Tomic, who has been slow out of the blocks in this window.

• Atmane has won the first set in 6 of 10 tracked hard-court matches.
• Tomic has won the first set in only 6 of 15 hard-court matches.
• Tomic has lost 9 of 15 opening sets while winning 9 of 15 second sets.
• Atmane's first-set game record averages 5.4 won to 4.4 lost.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Atmane finishes most of his matches in two sets, and Tomic has also lost in straight sets four times.

• Atmane has won 4 of his last 10 hard-court matches 2-0 and lost 3 more 0-2.
• Atmane's last two wins were straight-sets victories over lower-ranked opponents.
• Tomic has been beaten 0-2 in 4 of his 15 hard-court matches.
• Atmane's average of 2.3 sets per match is the lower of the two.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Second sets have been evenly split for Atmane, but his higher ranking gives him a slight edge in a close contest.

• Atmane is 5-5 in second sets on hard, with 5.6 games won and 5.6 lost on average.
• Tomic is 9-6 in second sets but has faced mostly lower-ranked opponents.
• Atmane's second sets average 11.2 games, showing how tight they have been.
• Atmane holds the higher ranking at No. 99 against No. 184.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Most of their recent sets have been settled by a break rather than a tiebreak.

• Atmane's matches contained a tiebreak in 5 of 10 tracked hard matches.
• Tomic's matches contained a tiebreak in 6 of 15 hard matches.
• Only 4 of 25 combined first sets reached a tiebreak.
• Atmane has lost 3 of 10 hard-court matches without reaching a tiebreak set.