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Predictions graded

Sergey Fomin #305Uzbekistan0Timofei Derepasko #680Russia2

Sets 2-6 · 6-7Mon 5 Oct 2026, 05:10 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions7–278%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageSergey Fomin · 375 places

Sergey Fomin

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistani right-hander, born 1 February 2001. ATP/ITF profile data lists a singles career high of No. 290 in May 2026 and clay as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #305
Peak ranking: #290 · 2026
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Timofei Derepasko

Russia

Derepasko, 19, is the right-hander in this matchup. His highest ranking, No. 634, came in June 2026.

Current ranking: #680
Peak ranking: #634 · 2026
Current age: 19
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Oct 2026, 16:12 · Europe/Bucharest

Fifth seed Sergey Fomin is 367 ranking places above Timofei Derepasko but has lost six of his last eight completed hard-court matches, while Derepasko has won five of seven.

Derepasko is the better side of the recent hard-court evidence, though his wins came at a lower level and Fomin's ranking argues back. Derepasko at 3.0 is the price that offers something; Fomin at 1.38 is not.

Context

The surface splits the two players' recent records: Fomin has three wins in his last eight hard-court matches against one win in six on clay, while Derepasko has five wins in eight on hard courts against two in seven on clay. Hard courts are therefore the better recent footing for the lower-ranked Derepasko and the weaker one for the seeded Fomin, which cuts against the ranking gap. As only the third edition of the event, neither player brings deep Wuning history, so the current-week conditions weigh more than past results here.
- Third edition of the Wuning Challenger, played on hard courts in Wuning, China between 5 and 11 October 2026 as part of the ATP Challenger Tour.
ConfirmedSources checked 4 Oct 2026, 16:11 · Europe/Bucharest2026 Wuning Challenger IIIen.wikipedia.org · 4 Oct 2026
Derepasko arrived at No. 656 as an alternate but has been the more settled of the two on hard courts in the weeks before Wuning.
Five wins in seven hard-court matches is the best recent block behind his case, and no tiebreak in that window points to sets settled before 6-6. The wins came largely against opponents ranked outside the top 700 or unranked, so the run reflects modest opposition and covers only two weeks of early September. That combination is why his chance here is live without being overwhelming.
- Derepasko went 5-2 in seven completed hard-court matches between 6 and 15 September 2026, with four 2-0 wins, two 0-2 losses and one 2-1 win.
- No tiebreak was played in any of those seven matches, and his matches averaged 2.14 sets and 19.57 games.
- His hard-court wins in the window came mostly against opponents ranked outside the top 700 or unranked.
- One retired match is excluded from the seven-match hard-court sample.
Fomin is the higher-ranked and seeded player, but his recent results are the weaker side of this pair.
The fifth seed's freshest result is a heavy straight-sets defeat to a player ranked 130 places below him, which is the sort of form line that keeps this match open. It is still one match, and one afternoon does not settle how he will play in Wuning. What it does is remove any assumption that his ranking advantage will show up on its own.
- Fomin lost 3-6 1-6 to Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong (No. 419) on 16 September 2026, winning four of the sixteen games.
- That is his most recent completed match in the record supplied for this fixture.
Seeding puts Fomin among the protected entrants in this Challenger main draw and keeps him clear of the top seeds in the opening rounds, which shapes how demanding his first-week path is. It also fixes his standing relative to an opponent who gained entry only as an alternate rather than through the acceptance list. His ranking of No. 289 is the strongest single marker of his current level in this field, and the seed line sets the baseline that this match tests.
- Listed as the fifth seed in the Wuning Challenger III singles main draw with a ranking of No. 289 as of 28 September 2026.
ConfirmedSources checked 4 Oct 2026, 16:11 · Europe/Bucharest2026 Wuning Challenger IIIen.wikipedia.org · 4 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 3.00
The read
Derepasko has won five of seven recent hard-court matches while Fomin has lost six of eight, including defeats to much lower-ranked opponents.
- Derepasko 5-2 in 7 completed hard-court matches in the sample; Fomin 2-6 in 8
- Fomin overall 3-11 in 14 completed matches, with losses to players ranked 419, 439 and one unranked
- Derepasko won the opening set in 5 of 7 hard-court matches; Fomin 4 of 8
- Ranking gap favours Fomin (289 vs 656), but he is the fifth seed here
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonTimofei DerepaskoEstimated chance54%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
If the match finishes in two sets, as both players' recent hard-court results usually do, the game total tends to stay below the line.
- Fomin average total games 22.75 per hard-court match; Derepasko 19.57
- Derepasko 2-0 wins came with comfortable margins such as 6-3 6-3 and 6-3 6-2
- Fomin's straight-set losses included 3-6 1-6 and 5-7 0-6
- Combined straight-set rate is about 11 of 15 matches
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 21.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets in this window have averaged under nine games for both players, with tiebreaks uncommon.
- Fomin set-two average total 8.875 games; Derepasko 8.71
- Fomin set-two games won 3.875, lost 5.0
- Derepasko set-two games won 4.71, lost 4.0
- Fomin one set-two tiebreak in 8 matches; Derepasko none in 7
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' opening sets average right around nine and a half games, with tiebreaks rare in the tracked window.
- Fomin set-one average total 9.5 games; Derepasko 9.43
- Fomin one set-one tiebreak in 8 matches; Derepasko none in 7
- Fomin set-one games won average 5.0 and lost 4.5
- Derepasko set-one games won 5.43 and lost 4.0
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have mostly finished recent hard-court matches in two sets, with Derepasko particularly quick.
- Fomin 5 of 8 hard-court matches ended in straight sets
- Derepasko 6 of 7 hard-court matches ended in straight sets
- Derepasko average sets per match 2.14; Fomin 2.375
- Derepasko scorelines: four 2-0 wins, two 0-2 losses, one 2-1
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Derepasko has started better on hard courts, winning the opening set in five of seven matches.
- Derepasko 5-2 in opening sets on hard; Fomin 4-4
- Derepasko set-one games won average 5.43, lost 4.0
- Fomin set-one games won average 5.0, lost 4.5
- Only 7-8 set-one matches tracked per player
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonTimofei DerepaskoEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Fomin has lost more second sets than he has won on hard, and Derepasko has been the steadier in that phase.
- Derepasko 4-3 in second sets on hard; Fomin 3-5
- Derepasko second-set games average 4.71 won, 4.0 lost
- Fomin second-set average 3.875 won, 5.0 lost
- Small samples of 7-8 matches each
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonTimofei DerepaskoEstimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tiebreaks have been uncommon in these players' recent hard-court matches, especially Derepasko's.
- Derepasko 0 of 7 hard-court matches with a tiebreak in the tracked window
- Fomin 3 of 8 hard-court matches with a tiebreak
- Fomin three set-one tiebreaks combined with set two across 8 matches
- Set-one games average 9.5 for Fomin and 9.43 for Derepasko
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance75%

Sergey Fomin

4W 11L

6-3 6-1#419Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

7-6(1) 7-5#273Yi Zhou

7-5 6-0#439Khumoun Sultanov

3-6 7-6(5) 6-4—Xirui Han

4-6 6-1 7-5#423Aziz Dougaz

6-2 6-1#408Masamichi Imamura

6-1 6-4#389Kasidit Samrej

7-5 4-1 ret.#726Maxim Zhukov

1-6 6-1 6-3#531Giuseppe La Vela

6-2 3-6 7-6(8)#331Yanki Erel

6-3 4-6 6-4#399Manas Manoj Dhamne

3-6 6-4 6-1#415Olle Wallin

6-3 7-6(5)#900Mircea-Alexandru Jecan

7-6(6) 6-1#138Max Alcala Gurri

6-4 6-2#249Sumit Nagal

Timofei Derepasko

7W 8L

6-3 6-2—Matic Dimic

2-6 7-6(2) 6-4#846Francesco Ferrari

6-4 6-3#152Ilia Simakin

7-5 6-3#760Taisei Ichikawa

6-3 6-3—Stefan Storch

6-3 6-2#322Cruz Hewitt

6-3 4-6 6-4#843Sam Ryan Ziegann

6-3 6-4#876Taiyo Yamanaka

6-2 6-0—Minhthien Nguyen

6-4 6-3—Dimitar Kisimov

6-3 6-0#889Alessandro Bellifemine

6-2 6-1—Egor Shcherbakov

6-0 6-2#305Sean Cuenin

7-6(7) 5-1 ret.—Loan Lestir

6-3 6-2#560Pierre Delage

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

SFSergey FominFomin

Last 15

3–5

9 core stats · 1 even

Timofei DerepaskoDerepaskoTD

Timofei Derepasko carries the stronger recent form — Sergey Fomin's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In58.8%+7.6pp51.2%

1st Serve Won68.3%+1.8pp70.1%

2nd Serve Won47.5%—47.4%

Aces / Match6.0+2.43.6

Double Faults / Match4.71.8 fewer2.9

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won36.9%+3.1pp40.0%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted33.3%+10.0pp43.3%

Break Pts Saved54.9%+2.6pp52.3%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won48.6%+1.1pp49.7%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

58.8%1st Serve In+7.6pp51.2%

68.3%1st Serve Won+1.8pp70.1%

47.5%2nd Serve Won—47.4%

6.0Aces / Match+2.43.6

4.7Double Faults / Match1.8 fewer2.9

Return · 0–1

36.9%Return Pts Won+3.1pp40.0%

Pressure · 1–1

33.3%Break Pts Converted+10.0pp43.3%

54.9%Break Pts Saved+2.6pp52.3%

Points · 0–1

48.6%Total Pts Won+1.1pp49.7%