SpainVillena - SpainFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Philip Henning #2642Ivan Marrero Curbelo #350Spain0

Sets 7-5 · 6-0Mon 5 Oct 2026, 11:16 Predictions gradedQ3Hard

Predictions6–367%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantagePhilip Henning · 86 places

Philip Henning

Henning, 25, is the right-hander in this matchup. His No. 264 singles ranking is his highest listed career position.

Current ranking: #264
Peak ranking: #264
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Ivan Marrero Curbelo

Spain

Marrero Curbelo, 27, is a Spanish right-hander. His current No. 350 ranking is also his career best, reached in August 2026.

Current ranking: #350
Peak ranking: #350 · 2026
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Oct 2026, 22:28 · Europe/Bucharest

A place in the Villena main draw is the prize as No.

266 Henning meets No. 365 Marrero Curbelo. Henning's 12-of-15 first-set record and 71.4% first-serve points won make him the likelier winner, though Marrero Curbelo has won six of his 14 hard-court matches in three sets. Henning at 1.29 asks plenty of a player who has lost four of 15; Marrero Curbelo at 3.3 is the one quote that holds up.

Context

Henning arrives as the higher-ranked player at No. 266 and has been the stronger starter in this pairing's recent hard-court samples.
First sets have been Henning's most dependable phase, while Marrero Curbelo has won only 6 of 14 in his own hard-court sample. Both are small windows - 15 and 14 completed matches - so this describes recent match shape rather than a set in hand, but it does point to Henning being likelier to lead early.
- Across 15 completed hard-court matches from 4 August to 4 October 2026: 12 first sets won, 3 lost
- First-set games in that sample: 5.53 won to 3.8 lost, with one first-set tiebreak
Marrero Curbelo has built his 8-6 hard-court record on extended matches rather than quick wins.
Six of his eight wins in this sample needed a deciding set and his second sets average 10.14 games, which gives him a route in even when he starts slowly. Henning, by contrast, has won 9 of 15 hard-court matches in straight sets at an average of 20.9 games, so the long-match pattern belongs to one side rather than to the matchup as a whole.
- 14 completed hard-court matches, 19 July to 4 October 2026: 8 wins, 6 losses, 2.57 sets and 24.07 total games on average
- Scorelines in that sample: six 2-1 wins, two 1-2 losses, four 0-2 losses and two 2-0 wins
- One retirement is excluded from the aggregate, so these are completed matches only
This is a qualifying-round fixture, so the immediate prize is a place in the Villena main draw and neither player arrives with the protection of a seeding. The match is listed second on Pista Carlos Alcaraz, placing it mid-sequence on the court used for the featured qualifying schedule. The draw line and order of play establish the setting, the stake and the venue only; they say nothing about either player's current form, fitness or ranking trajectory.
- The Villena (Spain) Challenger men's singles qualifying draw lists Philip Henning against Ivan Marrero Curbelo on 5 October
- The order of play for Pista Carlos Alcaraz places Henning against Marrero Curbelo after an earlier fixture on that court
ReportedSources checked 4 Oct 2026, 22:26 · Europe/BucharestFlashscorewww.flashscore.com · 4 Oct 2026TennisTempleen.tennistemple.com · 4 Oct 2026
Marrero Curbelo's 31 August qualifying match in Mallorca against Oskari Paldanius was abandoned with the score at 6-4 2-0 in his opponent's favour. The detail matters because he is again entering a qualifying draw in the same swing, where an interrupted match can shorten a run and carry workload into the following days. He has since completed a stretch of hard-court matches without a further reported stoppage, so this reads as background on the shape of his recent schedule rather than a live withdrawal or fitness restriction.
- Marrero Curbelo's 31 August Mallorca qualifying match against O. Paldanius ended in retirement with the score at 6-4 2-0
ConfirmedSources checked 4 Oct 2026, 22:26 · Europe/BucharestFlashscorewww.flashscore.com · 4 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Henning's stronger serve and return numbers and higher ranking point to the more likely match winner.
- Henning is ranked 266 vs Marrero Curbelo 365 and is 11-4 on hard courts over his last 15 completed matches.
- Henning has won 69.7% of sets and 56.9% of games on hard courts, with 71.4% first-serve points won.
- Marrero Curbelo's hard-court set record is 6-8 in first sets and 6-8 in second sets over 14 matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonPhilip HenningEstimated chance67%

Games0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Marrero Curbelo's tendency to play long three-set matches makes the over more likely than the under.
- Marrero Curbelo's hard-court matches average 24.1 total games over 14 matches.
- His 14 hard-court matches include eight three-setters, which usually push games past 22.5.
- Henning's own hard-court average is 20.9 total games, but he has played three-setters in two of his last six matches.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 22.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets tend to be closer and longer, favoring the over.
- Henning's second sets average 9.6 total games on hard courts.
- Marrero Curbelo's second sets average 10.14 total games.
- Both players have played multiple second-set tiebreaks, which push totals higher.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The first-set averages for both players point to the under.
- Henning's first-set average is 9.33 total games, below the 9.5 line.
- Marrero Curbelo's first-set average is 9.0 total games.
- Neither player has a high first-set tiebreak rate on hard courts.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance54%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Henning's strong first-set record and higher ranking make him the clear favorite to take the opening set.
- Henning has won 12 of 15 first sets on hard courts, an 80% set1 win rate.
- He averages 5.53 games won to 3.8 lost in first sets.
- Marrero Curbelo has won only 6 of 14 first sets, averaging 4.36 games won to 4.64 lost.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonPhilip HenningEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Henning's second-set record is less dominant than his first-set record but still favors him.
- Henning has won 9 of 15 second sets on hard courts, a 60% rate.
- He averages 5.27 games won to 4.33 lost in second sets.
- Marrero Curbelo has won 6 of 14 second sets, averaging 4.71 games won to 5.43 lost.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonPhilip HenningEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Henning's straight-set win rate makes two sets the more likely outcome.
- Henning has won 9 of 15 hard-court matches 2-0 and has a 2.2 average total sets.
- He has lost only one of 15 hard-court matches by a 1-2 scoreline.
- Marrero Curbelo has lost four of 14 hard-court matches 0-2.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance53%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most recent hard-court matches for both players have not featured a tiebreak.
- Henning has played 11 of 15 hard-court matches without a tiebreak.
- Marrero Curbelo has played 11 of 14 hard-court matches without a tiebreak.
- Only four of Henning's 15 and three of Marrero Curbelo's 14 hard-court matches had a tiebreak.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance74%

Previous match context available

Philip Henning

11W 4L

6-2 6-7(5) 6-3#481Thijs Boogaard

6-3 6-4#153Tristan Schoolkate

6-4 6-4#654Alec Deckers

6-4 7-6(1)#387Robin Bertrand

6-4 6-4#895Tomas Curras Abasolo

6-4 2-6 6-4—Joao Dinis Silva

3-6 6-3 6-4—Rodrigo Fernandes

6-2 6-1—Alexander Watanabe Eriksson

6-2 6-2—Diogo Coelho

6-4 6-3#384Dan Added

6-4 7-6(0)#709Tristan Mccormick

6-1 6-2#406Pavel Lagutin

6-3 6-4#643Tiago Cacao

7-6(2) 6-0—Bernardo Munk Mesa

6-3 6-4#234Maks Kasnikowski

Ivan Marrero Curbelo

8W 7L

6-2 2-6 7-6(4)#769Joshua Sheehy

6-4 4-6 6-3#536Luca Potenza

4-6 7-5 6-0#234Maks Kasnikowski

6-4 2-0 ret.#781Oskari Paldanius

6-4 6-2#206Andres Andrade

3-6 7-5 6-2#414Blaise Bicknell

6-4 6-4#768Lucas Andrade Da Silva

6-2 4-6 6-3—Lev Seidman

6-3 6-3#367Mathys Erhard

2-6 7-6(4) 6-1#234Maks Kasnikowski

6-1 3-6 6-3#674Filip Peliwo

6-3 6-4#230Alejandro Moro Canas

6-4 6-3#190Facundo Mena

2-6 7-6(8) 6-2#450Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine

6-4 6-3—Enrique Collar

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

PHPhilip HenningHenning

Last 15

8–1

9 core stats · 0 even

Ivan Marrero CurbeloCurbeloIC

Philip Henning carries the stronger recent form — Ivan Marrero Curbelo's route runs through serve.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In64.3%+2.1pp66.4%

1st Serve Won71.4%+6.6pp64.8%

2nd Serve Won59.1%+6.5pp52.6%

Aces / Match3.8+2.71.1

Double Faults / Match1.71.2 fewer2.9

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won41.4%+1.5pp39.9%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted41.4%+1.4pp40.0%

Break Pts Saved60.0%+11.5pp48.5%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won53.6%+3.8pp49.8%

Serve · 4–1

64.3%1st Serve In+2.1pp66.4%

71.4%1st Serve Won+6.6pp64.8%

59.1%2nd Serve Won+6.5pp52.6%

3.8Aces / Match+2.71.1

1.7Double Faults / Match1.2 fewer2.9

Return · 1–0

41.4%Return Pts Won+1.5pp39.9%

Pressure · 2–0

41.4%Break Pts Converted+1.4pp40.0%

60.0%Break Pts Saved+11.5pp48.5%

Points · 1–0

53.6%Total Pts Won+3.8pp49.8%