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Predictions graded

Nicolas Barrientos #892Colombia0Javier Barranco Cosano #466Spain2

Sets 3-6 · 0-1Mon 5 Oct 2026, 10:59 Predictions gradedQ3Clay

Predictions3–0100%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageJavier Barranco Cosano · 426 places

Nicolas Barrientos

Colombia

Barrientos, 39, is a right-hander who primarily competes in doubles. His highest singles ranking was No. 237 in September 2015; he reached No. 47 in doubles in April 2024.

Current ranking: #892
Peak ranking: #237 · 2015
Current age: 39
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Javier Barranco Cosano

Spain

Barranco Cosano is a 27-year-old Spanish left-hander whose preferred surface is clay. He reached his career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 211 in October 2024.

Current ranking: #466
Peak ranking: #211 · 2024
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Left handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Oct 2026, 22:31 · Europe/Bucharest

Barranco Cosano is the fair favourite - ranked 571 against 892, 9-4 on clay since July - but the gap is not wide.

He was beaten 0-6 4-6 by Carboni on 1 October, while Barrientos has just won a three-setter. At 1.45, Barranco Cosano needs about seven wins in ten; Barrientos at 2.6 needs close to four. Neither price is worth taking.

Context

Barranco Cosano's current clay run includes a win over a top-260 player, which is the strongest single result in his recent record.
Krumich at 254 is ranked well above anyone Barranco Cosano will face in this qualifying round, and the win took three sets after a 2-6 opening set, so it was a recovery rather than a comfortable afternoon. It is also the only listed recent match against a player inside the top 300, which makes it the clearest evidence of his ceiling on this surface.
- 2026-08-18: beat Martin Krumich (254) 2-6 6-4 6-4 on clay
- Krumich is the highest-ranked opponent among his six listed recent clay matches
- Recorded as a completed three-set match, not a retirement
Barranco Cosano's most recent defeat came against an opponent ranked almost level with him, and it was one-sided.
Carboni at 566 sits a fraction above Barranco Cosano's own ranking, so this was not a loss to a much stronger player, and a 0-6 opening set is the heaviest scoreline in his supplied clay record. It is the closest thing in the evidence to a form concern ahead of this match, and it came four days before it.
- 2026-10-01: lost 0-6 4-6 to Lorenzo Carboni (566) on clay
- Games won 4, games lost 12
Barrientos's clay numbers cover several seasons, so they are best read as a long blend rather than a picture of his current level.
The sample averages 20.4 games and 2.21 sets per match, and 11 of the 14 matches finished in straight sets, so his clay sets are usually settled before 6-6. For this fixture, the caveat is that the record mixes matches from 2023 with results from this month, which makes it a looser guide to what he brings to a qualifying round now.
- 14 clay matches tracked from 2023-05-07 to 2026-10-04, record 8-6
- Only three of the 14 matches featured a tiebreak
- Average 20.4 total games and 2.21 sets per match
Barrientos's most recent result was a three-set grind decided by two tight sets and one heavy defeat.
He won the two sets that went to the wire and was beaten 1-6 in the middle one, so the result reflects his ability to take tight sets more than control of the match. He played it on 4 October, the day before this qualifying tie, and it was his only completed match in the six supplied rows since late August.
- 2026-10-04: beat Sergi Perez Contri (440) 7-6 1-6 6-4 on clay
- Games won 14, games lost 16 across three sets

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Javier Barranco Cosano

1.45fair 1.59

BetBugs 63% · Market 69%

−6.0ppshort

Barranco Cosano is the higher-ranked player with the better recent clay record and a win over a top-260 opponent, so he is the clear favourite.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Barranco Cosano is the higher-ranked player with the better recent clay record and a win over a top-260 opponent, so he is the clear favourite.
- Barranco Cosano is ranked 571, Barrientos 892
- Clay record 9-4 across 13 tracked matches vs 8-6 in 14
- Five of his nine clay wins were in straight sets
- Beat Krumich (254) 2-6 6-4 6-4 in August
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonJavier Barranco CosanoEstimated chance63%

Games0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Average opening sets for both men fall just under ten games, and tiebreaks have been rare on this surface.
- Barrientos first sets average 9.4 games
- Barranco Cosano first sets average 8.8 games
- Only two first-set tiebreaks across 27 clay matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total Gamesnot gradableUnder 9.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second-set totals for both players sit near or below ten games, with tiebreaks rarely needed.
- Barrientos second sets average 8.6 games
- Barranco Cosano second sets average 9.3 games
- One second-set tiebreak each across 27 clay matches
BetBugs · Set 2 Total Gamesnot gradableUnder 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' clay matches average right around the 20.5 line, and Barranco Cosano's one-sided wins regularly finish well short of it.
- Barrientos clay matches average 20.4 total games
- Barranco Cosano clay matches average 20.7
- Barranco Cosano's straight-set wins include 12-2, 12-2 and 12-5 game margins
BetBugs · Total Gamesnot gradableUnder 20.5Estimated chance53%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set results dominate both players' recent clay records, making a two-set match the more likely outcome.
- Barrientos clay scorelines: six 2-0, two 2-1, five 0-2, one 1-2
- Barranco Cosano clay scorelines: five 2-0, four 2-1, four 0-2
- Only two of the last six matches for each player reached a third set
BetBugs · Total Setsnot gradableUnder 2.5Estimated chance67%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Barranco Cosano's second sets are his strongest phase, with a clear edge in games won.
- Barranco Cosano set2 record on clay: 7-6
- He averages 5.3 games won and 4.0 lost in second sets
- Barrientos set2 record on clay: 7-7
BetBugs · Set 2 Winnernot gradableJavier Barranco CosanoEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Barranco Cosano is the stronger player overall, though his opening-set record is only marginally positive.
- Barranco Cosano set1 record on clay: 7-6
- Barrientos set1 record on clay: 8-6
- Barranco Cosano averages 4.5 games won and 4.2 lost in opening sets
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonJavier Barranco CosanoEstimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Their clay sets are usually settled before 6-6, so most matches should pass without a tiebreak.
- Only four tiebreaks across 27 combined clay matches
- Barranco Cosano has one tiebreak in 13 matches
- Barrientos has three tiebreaks in 14 matches
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance82%

Previous match context available

Nicolas Barrientos

8W 7L

7-6(6) 1-6 6-4#440Sergi Perez Contri

6-2 6-2#340Eduardo Ribeiro

6-4 7-5#466Denis Yevseyev

6-4 6-3#641Stefan Adrian Andreescu

6-4 ret.#536Luca Potenza

7-6(3) 6-2#523Fabrizio Andaloro

6-1 7-6(3)#592Christoph Negritu

6-2 6-2#360Juan Pablo Ficovich

6-3 6-4#477Juan Alejandro Hernandez

3-6 6-2 6-4#435Paulo Saraiva Dos Santos

6-4 6-0#617Thiago Cigarran

6-4 6-2#834Johan Alexander Rodriguez

6-3 6-4#190Facundo Mena

6-3 6-2#592Christoph Negritu

1-6 6-0 7-5#320Enrico Dalla Valle

Javier Barranco Cosano

9W 6L

6-2 6-0#1852Hugo Maia

6-0 6-4#566Lorenzo Carboni

6-2 6-0—Oriol Font

7-6(3) 1-2 ret.#672John Sperle

6-2 6-3—Elia Ruffino

3-6 6-4 5-4 ret.#1149Alejandro Garcia

6-4 6-3#319Radu Mihai Papoe

2-6 6-4 6-4#254Martin Krumich

6-4 5-7 6-4#380Andrej Martin

7-5 6-4—Matyas Kozlovsky

6-3 6-4#505Reda Bennani

3-6 6-2 6-1#785Michiel De Krom

6-1 6-0—Pavel Petrov (RUS)

6-4 7-6(3)#396Eric Vanshelboim

6-3 5-7 6-1#505Reda Bennani

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

NBNicolas BarrientosBarrientos

Last 15

4–3

9 core stats · 2 even

Javier Barranco CosanoCosanoJC

Nicolas Barrientos carries the stronger recent form — Javier Barranco Cosano's route runs through return.

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1559.4%+3.5pp62.9%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1566.7%—66.7%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1548.0%+4.4pp43.6%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/152.5+0.81.7

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/154.10.4 fewer4.5

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1540.9%+4.8pp45.7%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1548.9%—48.8%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1558.7%+6.7pp52.0%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1550.1%+1.6pp51.7%

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

59.4%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+3.5pp62.9%

66.7%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15—66.7%

48.0%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+4.4pp43.6%

2.5Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+0.81.7

4.1Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/150.4 fewer4.5

Return · 0–1

40.9%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+4.8pp45.7%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

48.9%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15—48.8%

58.7%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+6.7pp52.0%

Points · 0–1

50.1%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+1.6pp51.7%