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Predictions graded

Maxi Carrascosa DiazSpain0Borna Gojo #163Croatia2

Sets 2-6 · 2-6Mon 5 Oct 2026, 09:00 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions8–189%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Maxi Carrascosa Diaz

Spain

Spanish entrant who received a wildcard into the Villena singles main draw and carries no ranking in the supplied structured feed. His tracked recent sample is weighted to clay, where he is 6-4 across ten matches, against a 1-4 record in five tracked hard-court matches.

Current ranking: —
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: —
Height: —

Borna Gojo

Croatia

A 196 cm Croatian right-hander who reached a career-high No. 72 on 20 November 2023. The supplied structured feed lists his current ranking at No. 163.

Current ranking: #163
Peak ranking: #72 · 2023
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Oct 2026, 16:36 · Europe/Bucharest

A No. 148 sixth seed against an unranked home wildcard: Gojo's serve (9.9 aces per match, 78.4% of first-serve points won over his last 15 tracked matches) makes a straight-sets win the likely outcome.

Gojo at 1.01 gives nothing back. The one price that offers value is Carrascosa Diaz at 13/1, if the seed's level 6-6 hard-court record shows up.

Context

Gojo is the higher-ranked player in this first round and the first serve is the most productive part of his game.
A first serve that produces close to ten aces a match and wins nearly four in five points gives Gojo a short route to holding, which is the gap between him and a wildcard with one hard-court win in five. The same numbers explain why his results stay level rather than dominant: when the first serve misses, the rest of his game has not turned that serving head start into a better than 7-8 window, and his second serve won only 46.4% of points.
- Last 15 tracked matches in the window ending 23 September 2026: 7 wins, 8 losses.
- Over the same 15 matches: 9.9 aces per match (148/15), 78.4% of first-serve points won (511/652), 67.4% of break points saved (58/86).
- Second-serve points won across the window: 46.4% (182/392).
- Total points won across the window: 50.5% (1051/2083).
The wildcard places an unranked Spanish player directly into the main draw of a hard-court Challenger in Villena rather than routing him through qualifying. That matters to this fixture because the entry route, not a ranking, is what set him opposite the sixth seed in the opening round. Wildcards are routine at this level, so the entry explains how the match was formed rather than evidencing current form.
- Carrascosa Díaz was given a wildcard into the singles main draw of the 2026 Ferrero Challenger in Villena, Alicante, Spain.
ConfirmedSources checked 4 Oct 2026, 16:35 · Europe/Bucharest2026 Ferrero Challengeren.wikipedia.org · 4 Oct 2026
Gojo comes in as the sixth seed at No. 148, the higher-ranked player in a matchup against an unranked wildcard. The seeding reflects his position in the field and frames the level gap between the two entries. Seed and ranking describe the entry profile rather than a current playing condition, so they set expectations without establishing form on their own.
- Gojo was the sixth seed in the 2026 Ferrero Challenger singles draw, ranked No. 148 on 28 September 2026.
ConfirmedSources checked 4 Oct 2026, 16:35 · Europe/Bucharest2026 Ferrero Challengeren.wikipedia.org · 4 Oct 2026
Villena's Ferrero Tennis Academy hosts the ninth edition on hardcourts from 5 to 11 October, and the first-round kickoff lands on the opening day. That matters because Carrascosa Díaz's tracked recent sample is weighted to clay while Gojo has spent the past month on hardcourts, so the surface frames each player's recent results differently. The academy is a permanent training base that keeps conditions stable through the week, but no court assignment has been disclosed.
- The 2026 Ferrero Challenger was the ninth edition, held on hardcourts at the Ferrero Tennis Academy in Villena, Alicante, Spain, from 5 to 11 October 2026.
ConfirmedSources checked 4 Oct 2026, 16:35 · Europe/Bucharest2026 Ferrero Challengeren.wikipedia.org · 4 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Gojo's serve and break-point defence are far above what a wildcard with one win in five hard-court matches has faced, and his recent wins came against players ranked 267-401.
- Gojo on hard: 9.8 aces per match, 77.3% first-serve points won, 68.1% break points saved
- Gojo hard-court record in the window: 6-6, 50.7% of total points won
- Carrascosa Diaz on hard: 1-4, 46.7% of total points won, 43.8% of games won
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBorna GojoEstimated chance84%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
If Gojo wins in straight sets, a scoreline such as 6-4 6-3 or 6-3 6-3 keeps the match below the line.
- Gojo's hard matches average 22.9 total games
- Carrascosa Diaz's hard matches average 19.2 total games
- Three of Carrascosa Diaz's five hard matches had 18 games or fewer in two sets
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 21.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The likely pattern is a short opening set with one break, keeping the total at nine games or fewer.
- Gojo's first sets on hard average 9.25 total games
- Carrascosa Diaz's first sets on hard average 7.6 total games
- Carrascosa Diaz averages only 3.2 games won in first sets on hard
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance51%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second sets in this pair's hard samples average close to ten games, so one more game past the line is plausible.
- Gojo's second sets on hard average 9.58 total games
- Carrascosa Diaz's second sets on hard average 10 total games
- Only two of Gojo's twelve hard matches featured a tiebreak
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance51%

Sets4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Gojo's second-set record on hard is positive, while Carrascosa Diaz has taken only one second set in five hard matches.
- Gojo has won 7 of 12 second sets on hard
- Carrascosa Diaz has won 1 of 5 second sets on hard
- Carrascosa Diaz averages 4.8 games won in the second set on hard
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonBorna GojoEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Gojo starts well on hard and Carrascosa Diaz has lost the opening set in three of five hard matches.
- Gojo has won 8 of 12 first sets on hard
- Carrascosa Diaz has won 2 of 5 first sets on hard
- Carrascosa Diaz averages 3.2 games won in the first set on hard
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonBorna GojoEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The level gap and Gojo's serving suggest a short match more often than not against a wildcard.
- Five of Gojo's twelve hard matches ended 2-0
- Carrascosa Diaz has lost 0-2 in three of five hard matches
- Gojo's hard matches average 2.42 sets
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Against a low-ranked opponent, Gojo's serve-led game points to straight sets, matching the most common scoreline in his hard-court sample.
- Gojo's hard-court scorelines: five 2-0 wins, one 2-1 win, four 1-2 losses, two 0-2 losses
- Gojo takes 55.2% of sets on hard
- Carrascosa Diaz has lost 0-2 in three of five hard-court matches
BetBugs · Set BettingwonBorna Gojo 2-0Estimated chance63%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Breaks have been frequent enough in both players' hard-court matches that sets tend to finish before 6-6.
- Ten of Gojo's twelve hard matches had no tiebreak
- All five of Carrascosa Diaz's hard matches had no tiebreak
- Gojo's second sets average 9.58 total games on hard
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gojo's serve alone produces close to ten aces a match, and Carrascosa Diaz adds a few, so the pair should clear the line over two or three sets.
- Gojo averages 9.8 aces per match on hard
- Carrascosa Diaz averages 3.2 aces per match on hard
- Combined hard-court average is around 13 aces per match
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 11.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With Gojo's low double-fault rate and a likely short match, the pair is slightly more likely to stay under the line.
- Gojo averages 3.1 double faults per match on hard
- Carrascosa Diaz averages 4.2 double faults per match on hard
- Combined hard-court average is around 7.3 double faults per match
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 7.5Estimated chance52%

Maxi Carrascosa Diaz

7W 8L

4-6 7-5 6-2#816Toby Martin

6-0 7-5#851Benjamin Willwerth

6-0 6-0—Pedro Petroski Rocha

6-3 6-1#891Alejandro Manzanera Pertusa

7-5 6-1—Artem Alekseychuk

6-3 6-1#630Pedro Rodenas

6-2 6-0—Toprak Avcibasi

6-2 6-2—Enzo Helguera Casado

1-6 6-3 10-6—Manuel Belda

7-5 6-4—Ian Barroeta

2-6 7-5 10-3—Javier Munoz Fuster

6-2 6-4—Alberto Garcia Garcia

6-1 6-1—Chetanna Amadike

6-2 6-4#784Carles Hernandez

6-2 6-4#705Alberto Barroso Campos

Borna Gojo

7W 8L

3-6 6-3 6-4#72Titouan Droguet

7-5 6-3#401Vadym Ursu

6-2 3-6 6-3#72Titouan Droguet

6-4 6-4#267Matteo Martineau

6-4 7-6(6)#373Daniel Masur

6-4 6-4#104Bu Yunchaokete

6-1 6-4#189Zdenek Kolar

3-6 6-3 6-1#178Harry Wendelken

6-4 2-6 7-6(3)#409Sebastian Gorzny

6-4 4-6 6-4#217Felix Gill

6-2 6-4#364Dhakshineswar Suresh

6-2 6-2#409Sebastian Gorzny

6-4 6-4#211Colton Smith

7-6(10) 6-2#100Chak Lam Coleman Wong

7-5 6-3#140Jurij Rodionov

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MDMaxi Carrascosa DiazDiaz

Last 15

2–7

9 core stats · 0 even

Borna GojoGojoBG

Borna Gojo carries the stronger recent form — Maxi Carrascosa Diaz's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 0–5

1st Serve In10/15 · 15/1561.2%+1.3pp62.5%

1st Serve Won10/15 · 15/1563.3%+15.1pp78.4%

2nd Serve Won10/15 · 15/1544.0%+2.4pp46.4%

Aces / Match10/15 · 15/152.0+7.99.9

Double Faults / Match10/15 · 15/154.51.2 fewer3.3

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won10/15 · 15/1543.0%+8.5pp34.5%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted10/15 · 15/1541.3%+9.5pp31.8%

Break Pts Saved10/15 · 15/1549.2%+18.2pp67.4%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won10/15 · 15/1549.2%+1.3pp50.5%

Serve · 0–5

61.2%1st Serve In10/15 · 15/15+1.3pp62.5%

63.3%1st Serve Won10/15 · 15/15+15.1pp78.4%

44.0%2nd Serve Won10/15 · 15/15+2.4pp46.4%

2.0Aces / Match10/15 · 15/15+7.99.9

4.5Double Faults / Match10/15 · 15/151.2 fewer3.3

Return · 1–0

43.0%Return Pts Won10/15 · 15/15+8.5pp34.5%

Pressure · 1–1

41.3%Break Pts Converted10/15 · 15/15+9.5pp31.8%

49.2%Break Pts Saved10/15 · 15/15+18.2pp67.4%

Points · 0–1

49.2%Total Pts Won10/15 · 15/15+1.3pp50.5%