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Settling…

Martin Damm #94United States1Pavel Kotov #250Russia2

Sets 6-7 · 7-6 · 3-6Mon 5 Oct 2026, 08:30 Settling…Q1Hard

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMartin Damm · 156 places

Martin Damm

United States

Damm was born on 30 September 2003 and is a 203 cm left-hander. Structured data supplied for this match lists him at No. 94.

Current ranking: #94
Peak ranking: #94
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 203 cm

Pavel Kotov

Russia

Reached a career-high ranking of No. 50 in June 2024. The available profile records identify him as a right-hander with a two-handed backhand.

Current ranking: #250
Peak ranking: #50 · 2024
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Oct 2026, 16:17 · Europe/Bucharest

Damm starts fast — eight of 12 first sets won on hard — but Kotov, 8-3 on hard this month, owns the second set (eight of 11) and has seen seven of 11 matches reach a tiebreak.

Damm is the likelier match winner, though not at 1.38. Three prices offer something: Kotov for the second set at 2.6, over 23.5 games at 2.2, and Kotov to win the match at 3.0.

Context

The two hard-court samples point in opposite directions — Damm's first sets against Kotov's second sets and 8-3 hard record — with no head-to-head, no availability news, and one retired match excluded from Kotov's 11-match aggregate.

Kotov, ranked 182, has been the slower starter in this matchup but the stronger player once the match is underway.
Kotov has been the slower starter, winning only five of 11 first sets, but his numbers improve once the match is underway: 5.82 games won to 4.82 lost in second sets, plus four second-set tiebreaks. That matters against Damm, whose clearest edge is the opening set, because it gives Kotov a route back if the first set goes against him. The window is 11 matches from 8 to 23 September, excluding one retired match.
- Kotov won 8 of 11 second sets in hard-court best-of-three matches between 8 and 23 September 2026.
- Second sets averaged 5.82 games won and 4.82 games lost across that 11-match sample.
- Four second-set tiebreaks in the same 11 matches.
- One retired match is excluded from the aggregate.
Damm's serve profile is high-risk, high-reward: 12.7 aces a match over 15 tracked matches, with 75.2% of first-serve points won, but 4.1 double faults and only 51.1% of second-serve points won. Against an opponent who has reached a tiebreak in seven of 11 recent hard-court matches, free points on serve matter, and second serves are where Kotov can find a foothold. The 15-match aggregate is a small, mostly recent sample, so read it as current shape rather than a fixed rate.
- Across 15 tracked matches, Damm averaged 12.7 aces per match (190 aces) and 4.1 double faults per match (61).
- He won 75.2% of first-serve points (616 of 819) and 51.1% of second-serve points (251 of 491) over the 15-match sample.
- His record across those 15 matches is 7 wins and 8 losses.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Damm is higher ranked, serves bigger with 11.7 aces per match, and starts sets strongly, giving him the better overall chance.
- Damm is ranked 103, while Kotov is ranked 182.
- Damm has won 52.9% of sets (18/34) and 51.2% of games (169/330) on hard courts in 13 matches.
- Damm has won 8 of 12 first sets on hard best-of-3.
- Kotov is 8-3 on hard but lost recently to Mochizuki (120) and Sharipov (238).
BetBugs · Match WinnerMartin DammEstimated chance58%

Games0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Kotov often keeps matches close or wins, and the line gives him a cushion if Damm wins narrowly.
- Kotov is 8-3 on hard courts in 11 matches.
- Kotov's recent wins came by margins of +2, +3, +6 and +3 games.
- Damm's last six hard matches produced margins of -6, -3, +7, -2, -2 and +5.
- Damm has won only 51.2% of hard-court games (169/330) in 13 matches.
BetBugs · Game HandicapPavel Kotov +2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kotov's first sets often stretch past nine games, and Damm's recent competitive openers also reached double digits.
- Damm's hard first sets average 9.33 total games.
- Kotov's hard first sets average 10.36 total games.
- Kotov has four first-set tiebreaks in 11 hard matches.
- Damm's first sets against Hurkacz, Tiafoe and Medvedev had 10, 10 and 12 games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GamesOver 9.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' second sets average above nine and a half games, with Kotov's tiebreak rate helping the over.
- Damm's hard second sets average 10.08 total games.
- Kotov's hard second sets average 10.64 total games.
- Kotov has four second-set tiebreaks in 11 hard matches.
- Damm's second sets against Mochizuki, Tiafoe and Medvedev had 10, 10 and 9 games.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GamesOver 9.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Both players' hard-court matches sit right around this line, and Kotov's frequent tiebreaks push totals upward.
- Damm's hard best-of-3 matches average 23.5 total games.
- Kotov's hard best-of-3 matches average 23.9 total games.
- Kotov has 7 of 11 hard matches with a tiebreak.
- Damm's recent hard matches include totals of 29, 26 and 22 games.
BetBugs · Total GamesOver 23.5Market price2.20Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Damm starts matches much more strongly than Kotov, who has a losing first-set record on hard.
- Damm has won 8 of 12 first sets on hard best-of-3.
- Kotov has won 5 of 11 first sets on hard best-of-3.
- Damm won the first set in five of his last six hard matches.
- Damm averages 5.42 games won and 3.92 lost in first sets on hard.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerMartin DammMarket price1.44Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Both players have mostly completed hard-court matches in two sets, making under 2.5 the more likely length.
- Damm's hard scorelines include seven straight-set matches out of 12.
- Kotov's hard scorelines include eight straight-set matches out of 11.
- Damm's recent 2-0 wins over Mochizuki and Medvedev were straight sets.
- Kotov's recent 2-0 wins over Tomic, Noguchi and Santillan were straight sets.
BetBugs · Total SetsUnder 2.5Market price1.44Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.60
The read
Kotov's second-set record is the strongest set trend in the match, making him a slight favorite in the second set.
- Kotov has won 8 of 11 second sets on hard best-of-3.
- Damm has won 7 of 12 second sets on hard best-of-3.
- Kotov won the second set in four of his last six hard matches.
- Kotov has four second-set tiebreaks in 11 hard matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerPavel KotovMarket price2.60Estimated chance53%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kotov's frequent tiebreaks and Damm's big serve make at least one tiebreak likely.
- Kotov has 7 of 11 hard matches with a tiebreak.
- Damm has 4 of 12 hard matches with a tiebreak.
- Kotov has four first-set and four second-set tiebreaks.
- Damm averages 11.7 aces per match on hard.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchYesEstimated chance54%

Martin Damm

7W 8L

2-6 6-1 6-1#9Arthur Fils

4-6 6-3 6-4#41Hubert Hurkacz

6-1 6-4#120Shintaro Mochizuki

6-4 4-6 3-6 6-3 6-4#8Frances Tiafoe

2-6 6-3 6-3#62Fabian Marozsan

7-5 6-3#6Daniil Medvedev

6-4 7-6(2)#346Abedallah Shelbayh

6-4 7-6(4)#134Stefanos Sakellaridis

6-4 6-4#44Stefanos Tsitsipas

6-3 7-6(3)#127Henrique Rocha

6-4 4-6 6-4#4Ben Shelton

4-6 7-5 7-6(4)#346Abedallah Shelbayh

6-2 6-0#229Kimmer Coppejans

6-4 7-6(1) 6-3#33Arthur Rinderknech

7-6(5) 6-7(5) 7-6(2) 7-6(5)#88Marco Trungelliti

Pavel Kotov

9W 6L

7-5 6-3#120Shintaro Mochizuki

6-7(4) 7-5 7-5#447Luca Castelnuovo

6-0 6-3#238Marat Sharipov (RUS)

7-6(3) 7-6(3)#184Bernard Tomic

6-1 7-6(2)#216Rio Noguchi

6-4 7-6(4)#317Akira Santillan

7-6(4) 6-1#120Shintaro Mochizuki

6-3 7-5#238Marat Sharipov (RUS)

3-6 6-1 6-1#180Alexis Galarneau

7-6(5) 7-6(7)#350Jake Delaney

3-6 6-3 7-6(9)#192Elias Ymer

6-4 6-4#377Daniel Elahi Galan

7-5 ret.#706Leo Raquillet

6-7(3) 6-3 6-0#707Franco Ribero

6-7(7) 6-4 6-2#88Marco Trungelliti

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MDMartin DammDamm

Last 15

4–4

9 core stats · 1 even

Pavel KotovKotovPK

Dead-even recent form — the edges are in serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In62.5%+2.7pp65.2%

1st Serve Won75.2%+4.3pp70.9%

2nd Serve Won51.1%+2.2pp53.3%

Aces / Match12.7+6.66.1

Double Faults / Match4.12.5 fewer1.6

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won33.1%+2.9pp36.0%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted37.0%+0.8pp36.2%

Break Pts Saved63.4%+2.2pp61.2%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won50.0%—50.4%

Serve · 2–3

62.5%1st Serve In+2.7pp65.2%

75.2%1st Serve Won+4.3pp70.9%

51.1%2nd Serve Won+2.2pp53.3%

12.7Aces / Match+6.66.1

4.1Double Faults / Match2.5 fewer1.6

Return · 0–1

33.1%Return Pts Won+2.9pp36.0%

Pressure · 2–0

37.0%Break Pts Converted+0.8pp36.2%

63.4%Break Pts Saved+2.2pp61.2%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

50.0%Total Pts Won—50.4%

Martin Damm

Pavel Kotov

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 23.5

Pavel Kotov

Pavel Kotov

Martin Damm

Under 2.5

Result0 of 0 landed

Games0 of 0 landed

Sets0 of 0 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Martin Damm

Pavel Kotov

Stat Battle