ChinaATP ShanghaiFinished

Predictions graded

Kimmer Coppejans #218Belgium2Nishesh Basavareddy #148United States0

Sets 7-6 · 6-3Mon 5 Oct 2026, 11:33 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions3–730%

Edges2–250%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageNishesh Basavareddy · 70 places

Kimmer Coppejans

Belgium

Belgian player, born 7 February 1994. ITF lists clay as his preferred surface; his career-best singles ranking was No. 97 in June 2015.

Current ranking: #218
Peak ranking: #97 · 2015
Current age: 32
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Nishesh Basavareddy

United States

American right-hander. No reliable current injury, withdrawal, comeback, coaching, or home-crowd context was surfaced in the prescribed searches.

Current ranking: #148
Peak ranking: #99
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Oct 2026, 19:58 · Europe/Bucharest

Basavareddy comes in with far better hard-court form than Coppejans, who has yet to win a set on the surface in this window, so a Basavareddy win, probably in straight sets, is the likely outcome.

Most reviewed prices ask for more than the form supports: 1.12 for Basavareddy to win the match, 1.18 for the first set, 1.30 for straight sets, 1.44 for a 2-0 win. Coppejans at 6 is the one reviewed price that gives something back.

Context

The opening-set record is the strongest single number behind the case for him in Shanghai, and only one of the ten matches contained a tiebreak. Second sets were closer at 6-4, and three of the ten matches went to a deciding set, so a straight-sets night is the likeliest route rather than a certainty. Coppejans' two-match hard-court sample is too small to test any of it.
- Away setEvidence (hard, best-of-3): 10 matches tracked, 18 Aug 2026 to 27 Sep 2026.
- Opening sets: 9-1, averaging 5.8 games won to 3.5 lost, with one tiebreak in the sample.
- Second sets: 6-4, averaging 5.1 games to 4.0; six 2-0 wins, two 2-1 wins, one 0-2 loss and one 1-2 loss; 21.2 total games per match.
It is a two-match sample with one retirement excluded from the window, so it is thin evidence, but in both matches he was well behind from the opening set, and an average of 3.5 games won per match leaves little room to build a foothold. Basavareddy's hard-court record makes that a real problem for him here.
- Home setEvidence (hard, best-of-3): 2 matches tracked, 25 Jul 2026 to 24 Aug 2026, record 0-2, both scorelines 0-2.
- Set 1: 1.5 games won to 6.0 lost on average; Set 2: 2.0 to 6.0; 15.5 total games per match.
- One retirement was excluded from the window and neither of the two matches contained a tiebreak.
That is his most recent completed match in the supplied record, twelve days before the Shanghai kickoff, and he won two games in total. The match was on clay rather than hard, and his hard-court evidence for this window runs to two matches, so this is a form caution rather than a verdict on the surface he meets here.
- Home recentMatches[0]: 23 Sep 2026, lost 0-2 to Luka Mikrut (world No. 166) on clay, 1-6 1-6, 2 games won to 12 lost.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Set 1 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Nishesh Basavareddy

1.18fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 84.7%

−4.7ppshort

Basavareddy has started almost every recent hard-court match strongly, while Coppejans has been well behind in his opening sets.

Total SetswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 2.5

1.30fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 76.9%

−8.9ppshort

Both players' recent hard-court matches have usually finished in straight sets.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Basavareddy has been winning consistently on hard, while Coppejans has been beaten heavily in his only hard-court matches of this window.
- Basavareddy is 8-3 on hard in this window, and 9-1 in opening sets on the surface
- His hard-court scorelines are six 2-0 wins, two 2-1 wins and two losses
- Coppejans is 0-2 on hard here, averaging 1.5 games in set 1 and 2.0 in set 2
- Coppejans has lost five of his last six completed matches across surfaces
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostNishesh BasavareddyEstimated chance78%

Games2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Basavareddy's recent hard-court wins have mostly come by four games or more, while Coppejans has been losing sets by wide margins.
- Basavareddy's last six hard-court game margins were +4, +7, +5, +6, -6 and +8
- He won five of those six matches
- Coppejans' recent defeats include 2-12 and 5-12 game margins
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostNishesh Basavareddy -3.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Basavareddy's matches tend to run to around 20 games even when he wins, which leaves the over within reach.
- Basavareddy's 10 hard-court matches average 21.2 games total
- His last six hard matches totalled 22, 17, 27, 18, 18 and 16 games
- Coppejans' two hard-court matches averaged 15.5 games total
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 18.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Opening sets in these two players' recent hard-court matches have usually finished at or below nine games.
- Basavareddy's 10 hard-court opening sets average 9.3 games total
- Coppejans' two hard-court opening sets averaged 7.5 games
- Only one tiebreak has appeared across Basavareddy's 10 hard matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets in these recent hard-court matches have mostly landed at or below nine games.
- Basavareddy's hard-court second sets average 9.1 games total
- Coppejans' hard-court second sets average 8.0 games
- Basavareddy's last two hard-court second sets were 10 and 8 games
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.18
The read
Basavareddy has started almost every recent hard-court match strongly, while Coppejans has been well behind in his opening sets.
- Basavareddy has won 9 of 10 hard-court opening sets, averaging 5.8 games to 3.5
- Coppejans has lost both hard-court opening sets, averaging 1.5 games won
- Only one tiebreak has appeared across Basavareddy's 10 hard-court matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostNishesh BasavareddyEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Basavareddy's second sets have been less dominant than his first sets, but Coppejans has been well beaten in that set on hard.
- Basavareddy's hard-court second sets are 6-4, averaging 5.1 games to 4.0
- Coppejans has lost both hard-court second sets, averaging 2.0 games won
- Basavareddy took his two most recent second sets 6-4 and 6-2
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostNishesh BasavareddyEstimated chance71%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Both players' recent hard-court matches have usually finished in straight sets.
- Basavareddy's 10 hard-court matches averaged 2.3 sets
- Six of his 10 hard-court matches ended 2-0
- Coppejans has been beaten 0-2 in both of his hard-court matches
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Basavareddy has usually closed hard-court matches in straight sets, and Coppejans has not yet taken a set on hard in this window.
- Six of Basavareddy's 10 hard-court matches ended 2-0
- Coppejans has lost both hard-court matches 0-2, by 14 and 17 total games
- Basavareddy's hard-court matches average 2.3 sets
BetBugs · Set BettinglostNishesh Basavareddy 2-0Estimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tiebreaks have been rare in both players' recent hard-court matches.
- One of Basavareddy's 10 hard-court matches contained a tiebreak
- Neither of Coppejans' two hard-court matches had a tiebreak
- Basavareddy's opening sets on hard average 9.3 games total
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance80%

Prediction history

Nishesh Basavareddy: 3/4 recent winner projections matched

3 of 4 comparable winner projections favouring Nishesh Basavareddy matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Nishesh Basavareddy4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

16 May·ATP Geneva

#271Daniel Elahi Galan0-2#154Nishesh Basavareddy

BetBugsNishesh Basavareddy to win·62%

Matched

16 May 2026

ATP Geneva

#271Daniel Elahi Galan0-2#154Nishesh Basavareddy

Nishesh Basavareddy to win

62%probability

Nishesh Basavareddy won

Matched

12 May·Oeiras - Portugal

#214Genaro Alberto Olivieri1-2#154Nishesh Basavareddy

BetBugsNishesh Basavareddy to win·62%

Matched

12 May 2026

Oeiras - Portugal

#214Genaro Alberto Olivieri1-2#154Nishesh Basavareddy

Nishesh Basavareddy to win

62%probability

Nishesh Basavareddy won

Matched

7 May·Francavilla - Italy

#207Jay Clarke2-0#154Nishesh Basavareddy

BetBugsNishesh Basavareddy to win·62%

Missed

7 May 2026

Francavilla - Italy

#207Jay Clarke2-0#154Nishesh Basavareddy

Nishesh Basavareddy to win

62%probability

Jay Clarke won

Missed

4 May·Francavilla - Italy

#242Alejandro Moro Canas1-2#154Nishesh Basavareddy

BetBugsNishesh Basavareddy to win·60%

Matched

4 May 2026

Francavilla - Italy

#242Alejandro Moro Canas1-2#154Nishesh Basavareddy

Nishesh Basavareddy to win

60%probability

Nishesh Basavareddy won

Matched

Kimmer Coppejans

7W 8L

6-1 6-1#166Luka Mikrut

7-6(6) ret.#305Sean Cuenin

6-3 4-6 6-3#144Pablo Llamas Ruiz

6-4 6-2#232Thiago Moura Monteiro

6-1 6-4#140Jurij Rodionov

6-4 6-1#274Max Hans Rehberg

7-5 6-1#342Miguel Damas

6-2 6-0#103Martin Damm

6-2 7-6(3)#315Guy Den Ouden

6-2 6-1#377Daniel Elahi Galan

6-3 6-1#430Louis Wessels

6-2 7-5#262Pedro Boscardin Dias

6-3 6-2#326Florian Broska

6-3 6-3#315Guy Den Ouden

6-4 7-5#282Daniel Michalski

Nishesh Basavareddy

10W 5L

7-5 6-4#269Igor Ribeiro Marcondes

6-7(10) 6-4 5-1 ret.#363Dylan Dietrich

6-3 6-2#206Andres Andrade

6-2 4-6 6-3#790Keaton Hance

6-3 6-3#335Mees Rottgering

6-2 6-4#409Sebastian Gorzny

6-2 6-2#269Igor Ribeiro Marcondes

7-6(4) 3-6 6-3 6-4#153Tristan Schoolkate

6-3 6-1#58Arthur Gea

6-2 6-4#166Luka Mikrut

7-6(3) 4-6 6-3#194Moise Kouame

3-6 6-3 6-4#145Andrea Pellegrino

7-6(5) 6-3 3-6 6-3#34Alex Michelsen

7-6(5) 7-6(5) 6-7(9) 6-1#12Taylor Fritz

6-0 6-3#64Jaume Antoni Munar Clar

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

KCKimmer CoppejansCoppejans

Last 15

3–6

9 core stats · 0 even

Nishesh BasavareddyBasavareddyNB

Nishesh Basavareddy carries the stronger recent form — Kimmer Coppejans's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In61.0%+3.7pp57.3%

1st Serve Won65.5%+6.1pp71.6%

2nd Serve Won46.7%+8.1pp54.8%

Aces / Match1.9+3.25.1

Double Faults / Match2.31.7 fewer4.0

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won40.5%+0.9pp39.6%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted39.2%+6.8pp46.0%

Break Pts Saved43.8%+24.4pp68.2%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won48.8%+3.4pp52.2%

Serve · 2–3

61.0%1st Serve In+3.7pp57.3%

65.5%1st Serve Won+6.1pp71.6%

46.7%2nd Serve Won+8.1pp54.8%

1.9Aces / Match+3.25.1

2.3Double Faults / Match1.7 fewer4.0

Return · 1–0

40.5%Return Pts Won+0.9pp39.6%

Pressure · 0–2

39.2%Break Pts Converted+6.8pp46.0%

43.8%Break Pts Saved+24.4pp68.2%

Points · 0–1

48.8%Total Pts Won+3.4pp52.2%

Kimmer Coppejans

Nishesh Basavareddy

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Kimmer Coppejans

Nishesh Basavareddy

Under 2.5

Nishesh Basavareddy 2-0

Result0 of 1 landed

Games2 of 4 landed

Sets1 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Kimmer Coppejans

Nishesh Basavareddy

Stat Battle