ChinaWTA SuzhouFinishedFeatured

Settling…

Elvina Kalieva #121United States2Yexin Ma #181China0

Sets 6-3 · 6-4Mon 5 Oct 2026, 07:12 Settling…First RoundHard

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageElvina Kalieva · 60 places

Elvina Kalieva

United States

American right-hander, born July 27, 2003. The WTA lists a career-best singles ranking of No. 134; the specified searches did not establish a reliable preferred-surface or active injury detail.

Current ranking: #121
Peak ranking: #134
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Yexin Ma

China

Public profile sources identify her as a right-handed Chinese player born June 10, 1999, with a career high of No. 165. No reliable current injury, return-from-absence, coaching, or surface-preference report was located.

Current ranking: #181
Peak ranking: #165
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Oct 2026, 16:09 · Europe/Bucharest

Two players 44 ranking places apart arrive with the same 7-8 record over their last 15 hard-court matches, so this Suzhou first round turns on small edges.

Ma's return numbers and first sets give her the slight upper hand, with Kalieva's serve the counterweight. Ma to win at 2.2, Ma with a 2.5-game start at 1.8, Ma to take the first set at 2.1 and over 22.5 games at 2.2 all look generous at those prices; Kalieva at 1.65 does not.

Context

No confirmed availability or injury news, no head-to-head record, and both players sit at 7-8 across their last 15 hard-court matches, so the sporting picture is close with little separating them.

Those first sets have still been close, averaging 9.67 games with two tiebreaks in the 15-match window, so the record reflects narrowly lost sets rather than one-sided ones. In a first-round match, repeatedly handing the opening set to an opponent leaves little room to recover.
- Kalieva's set1 record on hard is 5-10 across 15 matches tracked from 2026-07-27 to 2026-09-30.
- She averages 4.67 games won and 5.00 games lost in first sets.
- Her first sets average 9.67 total games, with two tiebreaks in the 15 matches.
- All 15 were completed best-of-three hard-court matches; retirements excluded: 0.
Ma is 6-9 in second sets in that window and has won 4.00 games to her opponents' 4.07, so the low totals come from brief sets rather than dominant ones. Her second sets have tended to resolve quickly, without the tiebreaks that show up in her first sets.
- Ma's set2 record on hard is 6-9 across 15 matches from 2026-07-30 to 2026-09-30.
- Her second sets average 8.07 total games, with zero tiebreaks in 15 matches.
- Her first sets average 9.60 total games with one tiebreak.
- She averages 4.00 games won and 4.07 lost in second sets.
It is a notable result for a player ranked below her opponent, and it came after she lost the opening set 3-6, so a slow start is not automatically decisive for Ma. A single three-set win is still a thin basis for expecting the same response again.
- On 2026-09-22, Ma beat Emerson Jones, ranked 134, 3-6 6-0 6-2 on hard court.
- The match was completed in three sets; no retirement was recorded.
It followed a three-set loss to Han Shi the day before, so her form line into Suzhou is short of wins. Golubic sits 50 places higher in the rankings, which tempers how much the scoreline says on its own.
- On 2026-09-30 Kalieva lost to Viktorija Golubic, ranked 67, 3-6 1-6 on hard court.
- She won four games in the match and the match was completed, with no retirement recorded.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Ma has slightly better recent hard-court metrics and a stronger first-set record, giving her a narrow advantage.
- Ma has won 3 of her last 6 matches; Kalieva has won 1.
- Ma's total points won on hard is 50.5% vs Kalieva's 49.6%.
- Ma's break-point conversion is 51.2% vs Kalieva's 39.6%.
- Ma's first-set record on hard is 8-7, compared to Kalieva's 5-10.
BetBugs · Match WinnerYexin MaMarket price2.20Estimated chance52%

Games0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Ma rarely loses by more than two games when she is competitive, and she often wins outright.
- Ma wins 50% of her hard-court games.
- Ma's 2-0 wins include a 12-4 victory (+8 games).
- Kalieva's 2-1 wins often have small margins.
- Ma's average match duration is 104.1 minutes.
BetBugs · Game HandicapYexin Ma +2.5Market price1.80Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have been shorter for both players, especially Ma, making under 9.5 more likely.
- Ma's set2 averages 8.07 total games.
- Kalieva's set2 averages 9.33 total games.
- Combined set2 average is 8.7 games.
- Ma's set2 has no tiebreaks in 15 matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GamesUnder 9.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
First sets between these players average above 9.5 games, with competitive starts common.
- Kalieva's set1 averages 9.67 total games.
- Ma's set1 averages 9.6 total games.
- Combined set1 average is 9.63 games.
- Kalieva's set1 has two tiebreaks in 15 matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GamesOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ma's shorter matches and Kalieva's lopsided losses suggest the total could stay under 22.5.
- Ma's hard matches average 21.5 total games.
- Ma has four 2-0 wins with an average of 16 games.
- Kalieva has six 0-2 losses averaging 17 games.
- Ma's average match duration is 104.1 minutes.
BetBugs · Total GamesUnder 22.5Estimated chance52%

Sets0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Straight-set finishes are more common for both, especially Ma's efficient wins and Kalieva's heavy losses.
- 17 of 30 combined matches ended in two sets (56.7%).
- Ma has four 2-0 wins and five 0-2 losses.
- Kalieva has six 0-2 losses and two 2-0 wins.
- Ma's average sets per match is 2.4.
BetBugs · Total SetsUnder 2.5Market price1.50Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Ma has a better first-set record and more consistent overall points, giving her the advantage early.
- Ma's set1 record on hard is 8-7.
- Ma averages 4.87 games won in set1.
- Kalieva has lost 10 of 15 first sets.
- Ma's total points won is 50.5%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerYexin MaMarket price2.10Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.05
The read
Ma has a marginal advantage in second-set games and overall points, making her a slight favorite.
- Ma's set2 record on hard is 6-9.
- Ma averages 4.0 games won in set2 vs Kalieva's 3.8.
- Kalieva's set2 record is also 6-9.
- Ma's total points won is 50.5%.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerYexin MaMarket price2.05Estimated chance53%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most matches for both players do not feature a tiebreak, so no is the stronger side.
- 24 of 30 combined hard matches had no tiebreak.
- Ma's set2 had zero tiebreaks in 15 matches.
- Kalieva's average set1 total is 9.67 games.
- Ma's average match duration is 104.1 minutes.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchNoEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With a combined average below 7.5, under is the slightly more likely outcome.
- Ma averages 2.7 aces per match.
- Kalieva averages 4.5 aces per match.
- Combined average is 7.2 aces per match.
- Ma's first-serve in is 55%.
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 7.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With a combined average below 7.5, under is marginally more likely.
- Ma averages 3.3 double faults per match.
- Kalieva averages 3.8 double faults per match.
- Combined average is 7.1 double faults per match.
- Ma's first-serve in is 55%.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsUnder 7.5Estimated chance54%

Elvina Kalieva

7W 8L

6-3 6-1#67Viktorija Golubic

6-7(5) 7-5 6-3#231Han Shi

6-2 6-4#892Ellen Perez

6-3 6-0#74Katie Volynets

7-6(9) 6-4#112Kayla Day

6-3 6-7(4) 6-2#63Lanlana Tararudee

5-7 6-4 6-4#154Vendula Valdmannova

3-6 6-3 6-4#159Sofia Costoulas

6-2 1-6 6-1#825Kristina Mladenovic

6-4 6-1#47Oleksandra Oliynykova

6-4 6-3#242Katrina Scott

7-5 6-1#119Kristina Liutova

6-1 2-6 6-3#36Peyton Stearns

3-6 7-5 7-5#58Zeynep Sonmez

6-1 7-6(3)#223Katherine Sebov

Yexin Ma

7W 8L

6-7(2) 6-3 6-2#104Polina Kudermetova

6-3 6-2#116Harriet Dart

4-6 6-1 6-3#295Yufei Ren

7-5 6-3#41Kimberly Birrell

3-6 6-0 6-2#134Emerson Jones

6-3 6-1#360Eunhye Lee

6-3 6-0#771Carol Zhao

5-7 6-4 6-4#459Tahlia Kokkinis

6-4 4-6 7-6(10)#358Kristiana Sidorova

3-6 6-2 6-3#405Jiaqi Wang

6-3 6-2#437Unknown Player

6-4 6-2#218Clara Burel

6-2 6-1#242Katrina Scott

6-1 6-3#519Clervie Ngounoue

6-2 6-3#72Caty McNally

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

EKElvina KalievaKalieva

Last 15

4–5

9 core stats · 0 even

Yexin MaMaYM

Yexin Ma carries the stronger recent form — Elvina Kalieva's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In58.2%+3.2pp55.0%

1st Serve Won65.6%+6.8pp58.8%

2nd Serve Won44.8%+2.9pp47.7%

Aces / Match4.5+1.82.7

Double Faults / Match3.80.5 fewer3.3

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won42.3%+5.2pp47.5%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted39.6%+11.6pp51.2%

Break Pts Saved53.6%+2.4pp51.2%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.6%+0.9pp50.5%

Serve · 3–2

58.2%1st Serve In+3.2pp55.0%

65.6%1st Serve Won+6.8pp58.8%

44.8%2nd Serve Won+2.9pp47.7%

4.5Aces / Match+1.82.7

3.8Double Faults / Match0.5 fewer3.3

Return · 0–1

42.3%Return Pts Won+5.2pp47.5%

Pressure · 1–1

39.6%Break Pts Converted+11.6pp51.2%

53.6%Break Pts Saved+2.4pp51.2%

Points · 0–1

49.6%Total Pts Won+0.9pp50.5%

Elvina Kalieva

Yexin Ma

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Yexin Ma +2.5

Yexin Ma

Yexin Ma

Yexin Ma

Over 22.5

Under 2.5

Result0 of 0 landed

Games0 of 0 landed

Sets0 of 0 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Elvina Kalieva

Yexin Ma

Stat Battle