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Predictions graded

Beibit Zhukayev #419Kazakhstan0Yaroslav Demin #669Russia2

Sets 4-6 · 4-6Mon 5 Oct 2026, 05:39 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions3–633%

Edges0–30%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageBeibit Zhukayev · 250 places

Beibit Zhukayev

Kazakhstan

ATP's Kazakhstan rankings listing showed Zhukayev aged 25 and ranked No. 316 in the latest indexed update. Reliable public sources in these searches did not confirm a career-high ranking or preferred surface.

Current ranking: #419
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 198 cm

Yaroslav Demin

Russia

Demin, 21, is the right-hander in this matchup. His recorded career-high ATP singles ranking is No. 624, reached on 4 November 2024.

Current ranking: #669
Peak ranking: #624 · 2024
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Oct 2026, 16:12 · Europe/Bucharest

Zhukayev's serve, 9.9 aces per match and 74.1% of first-serve points won over his last 15 tracked matches, meets a Demin who has lost all three hard-court matches since 19 July 2026 without taking a set.

Zhukayev to win is the likely result, and at 1.65 it is worth backing, as are 2.4 on a 2-0 win and 1.6 on Zhukayev taking the second set. Demin at 2.25 to win and 2.2 for the second set ask for more than his record justifies.

Context

Zhukayev's first serve is comfortably the most reliable shot either player brings into this first round.
The 15-match window is the largest in this matchup, and the first serve is where Zhukayev's advantage is easiest to see: 74.1% of points won behind it and 149 aces across those matches. Demin has not taken a hard-court set since 19 July 2026, so tested returns have not been his strength recently. The counterweight is 69 double faults in 15 matches, which hands over free points whenever the first serve goes missing.
- Last 15 tracked matches: 74.1% of first-serve points won (527 of 711)
- 9.9 aces per match (149 across 15 matches)
- 4.6 double faults per match (69 across 15 matches)
Zhukayev has been the slower starter and the stronger finisher within these hard-court sets.
His first sets on hard average 9.7 games, with 4.2 won and 5.4 lost, while his second sets average 10.1 games with 5.3 won and 4.8 lost. Four of the nine matches contained a tiebreak, so a tidy straight-sets shape is not the only pattern this sample offers. The 23.2-game average is the figure that describes how long his hard-court matches have tended to run, even when he wins them.
- 9 completed hard-court matches, 24 March to 12 August 2026
- First sets: 3-6, averaging 4.2 games won and 5.4 lost
- Second sets: 6-3, averaging 5.3 games won and 4.8 lost
- Average 23.2 total games per match; 4 of 9 matches had a tiebreak
Demin arrives on this surface with three straight-sets defeats and a first-round draw against the bigger server.
The completed hard-court matches in that window all came out 0-2, with 4.0 games won per first set and 2.7 per second, and no set reaching a tiebreak. It is a three-match sample, and Demin won three clay matches in late August and early September 2026, so this run does not prove his level has dropped. It does mean his only recent hard-court evidence is three defeats in which he never got to a set.
- 3 completed hard-court matches, 19 July to 13 September 2026, all lost 0-2
- Sets won 0 of 6; games won 35.1% (20 of 57)
- First sets: 4.0 games won and 6.3 lost on average; second sets: 2.7 won and 6.0 lost
- No tiebreaks in any of the three matches

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Zhukayev serves far better than Demin on this surface, while Demin has lost every recent hard-court match without taking a set.
- Hard-court window: 4-5 in 9 matches, 47.8% of games won
- First-serve points won 76.3% on hard; 9.1 aces per match
- Demin is 0-3 on hard in this window, losing all six sets
- Demin hard-court games won 35.1%, return points won 25.3%
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostBeibit ZhukayevEstimated chance72%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Zhukayev's hard matches regularly pass this mark, and even two-set wins for him have reached 19-23 games.
- Zhukayev's nine hard matches averaged 23.2 games
- Demin's three hard matches averaged 19.0 games
- Four of Zhukayev's nine hard matches contained a tiebreak
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' first sets on hard sit right around ten games, so the line is close to the middle.
- Zhukayev first sets on hard average 9.7 games (4.2-5.4)
- Demin first sets on hard average 10.3 games (4.0-6.3)
- Two of Zhukayev's nine first sets on hard reached a tiebreak
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Demin has been losing second sets heavily, so scorelines like 6-3 or 6-2 are the most likely shape of the set.
- Demin second sets on hard: 2.7 games won, 6.0 lost
- Demin won 0 of 6 hard-court sets in this window
- Zhukayev's second-set win rate on hard is 6 of 9
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Zhukayev's second sets on this surface are his strongest phase, while Demin has been fading badly in second sets.
- Zhukayev set two on hard: 6-3, 5.3 games won per set
- Demin set two on hard: 0-3, 2.7 games won per set
- Zhukayev averages 10.1 games in second sets on hard
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostBeibit ZhukayevEstimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Six of Zhukayev's nine hard matches and all of Demin's ended in straight sets, which supports a two-set finish.
- Demin 0-2 in all three hard matches
- Zhukayev hard scorelines: three 2-0 wins, three 0-2 losses
- Only three of Zhukayev's nine hard matches lasted three sets
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance59%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Neither player starts quickly, but Demin has not won a hard-court set recently and Zhukayev's serve gives him the better opening.
- Zhukayev set one on hard: 3-6, 4.2 games won per set
- Demin set one on hard: 0-3, 4.0 games won per set
- Demin has lost all six hard-court sets in this window
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostBeibit ZhukayevEstimated chance58%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Demin's recent hard sets have been decided by breaks rather than tight games, pointing away from a tiebreak.
- No tiebreaks in any of Demin's three hard matches
- Five of Zhukayev's nine hard matches had no tiebreak
- Demin return points won 25.3% on hard
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Zhukayev's serve alone produces about nine aces a match on this surface and Demin adds a handful more.
- Zhukayev 9.1 aces per match on hard (82 in 9)
- Demin 5.7 aces per match on hard (17 in 3)
- Combined hard-court average 14.8 aces per match
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 12.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Zhukayev's hard-court double-fault rate is modest, so the pair's combined rate sits below this line.
- Zhukayev 2.6 double faults per hard match
- Demin 4.7 double faults per hard match
- Zhukayev overall 4.6 double faults per match across 15 matches
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 8.5Estimated chance57%

Beibit Zhukayev

8W 7L

6-3 6-4#312Mert Alkaya

6-3 6-4#610Amir Omarkhanov

7-6(7) 6-7(4) 6-2#723Yusuke Takahashi

6-2 6-1#208Liam Broady

7-6(7) 6-4#500Hiroki Moriya

6-3 6-2#408Masamichi Imamura

6-3 4-6 7-6(4)#108Sho Shimabukuro

4-6 6-4 6-4#754Uisung Park

4-6 6-3 6-4#63James Duckworth

7-5 7-6(5)#472Corentin Denolly

6-1 6-4—Alejandro Hayen

6-2 6-3#63James Duckworth

7-6(3) 6-7(6) 6-4#640Dan Martin

7-6(7) 1-6 6-4#577Robin Catry

6-1 7-6(4)#469Quinn Vandecasteele

Yaroslav Demin

6W 9L

6-3 6-3#822Hanyi Liu

6-4 6-3#488Jack Loge

6-4 6-2#889Niklas Schell

7-6(0) 6-4—Yassine Smiej

5-7 6-4 6-1#709Tristan Mccormick

6-1 2-6 6-4#559Alexander Ritschard

6-1 6-1—Pablo Aunion

3-6 6-4 6-4#784Carles Hernandez

6-4 6-2#658Sidharth Rawat

7-5 6-3#450Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine

6-2 6-4#372Andrey Chepelev

6-4 6-4#241Andrej Nedic

6-2 6-3#896Younes Lalami Laaroussi

6-1 3-6 6-4—Esteban Talavera Cortes

6-3 6-1#370Alejo Sanchez Quilez

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

BZBeibit ZhukayevZhukayev

Last 15

4–3

9 core stats · 2 even

Yaroslav DeminDeminYD

Beibit Zhukayev carries the stronger recent form — Yaroslav Demin's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

1st Serve In61.1%—60.4%

1st Serve Won74.1%+7.3pp66.8%

2nd Serve Won48.0%+2.8pp45.2%

Aces / Match9.9+6.93.0

Double Faults / Match4.61.2 fewer3.4

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won35.4%+5.0pp40.4%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted31.6%+9.4pp41.0%

Break Pts Saved66.0%+6.4pp59.6%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won49.6%—49.4%

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

61.1%1st Serve In—60.4%

74.1%1st Serve Won+7.3pp66.8%

48.0%2nd Serve Won+2.8pp45.2%

9.9Aces / Match+6.93.0

4.6Double Faults / Match1.2 fewer3.4

Return · 0–1

35.4%Return Pts Won+5.0pp40.4%

Pressure · 1–1

31.6%Break Pts Converted+9.4pp41.0%

66.0%Break Pts Saved+6.4pp59.6%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

49.6%Total Pts Won—49.4%

Beibit Zhukayev

Yaroslav Demin

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Beibit Zhukayev

Beibit Zhukayev

Beibit Zhukayev 2-0

Result0 of 1 landed

Games1 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Beibit Zhukayev

Yaroslav Demin

Stat Battle