ChinaWuning - ChinaFinished

Predictions graded

Yuta Kikuchi #892Japan2Kousuke Ogura #821Japan0

Sets 7-6 · 6-3Sun 4 Oct 2026, 07:25 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions5–742%

Edges2–340%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageKosuke Ogura · 71 places

Yuta Kikuchi

Japan

Kikuchi, 26, is the right-hander in this matchup. He reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 588 in September 2025, and his recorded senior schedule has been predominantly on hard courts.

Current ranking: #892
Peak ranking: #588 · 2025
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 173 cm

Kosuke Ogura

Japan

Ogura, 30, is a 170cm right-hander. His best singles ranking is No. 641.

Current ranking: #821
Peak ranking: #641
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 170 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Oct 2026, 15:10 · Europe/Bucharest

Two players outside the top 800 meet in the opening qualifying round at Wuning, and Kousuke Ogura's higher ranking and two wins in China this week make him the likelier winner, even though the quoted 1.18 has Yuta Kikuchi as favourite.

Ogura at 4.25 to win the match, 5.50 to take the second set, 2.00 with a 2.5-game start and 1.95 on under 23.5 games each carry a case.

Context

Ogura's opening sets have averaged 4.79 games won and 5.21 lost, while his second sets average 5.00 won and 4.43 lost.
The first set is where a lower-ranked opponent can find a foothold: Ogura has dropped nine of his last fourteen openers, three of which reached a tiebreak. The same window shows him winning nine of fourteen second sets, so an early Kikuchi lead would not settle the match. Total games across those fourteen matches averaged 22.4.
- Set 1 record 5-9 across 14 hard-court matches, 14 August to 2 October, averaging 4.79 games won and 5.21 lost
- Set 2 record 9-5 in the same window, averaging 5.00 games won and 4.43 lost
- Three of the 14 opening sets reached a tiebreak, and 5 of the 14 matches contained one
- Total games averaged 22.36 per match across the same 14 matches
Kikuchi's twelve completed hard-court matches since May have averaged 20.0 games and 2.33 sets, with first and second sets both split 6-6.
Only four of the twelve reached a deciding set, so a short match either way has been the norm. His results sit at both ends of the scale, four 2-0 wins and four 0-2 defeats, so the record points neither firmly to a tight scoreline nor to a blowout. Three retirements were excluded, meaning the sample covers completed matches only.
- Scoreline distribution over 12 completed hard-court matches, 6 May to 15 September: four 2-0 wins, four 0-2 defeats, one 2-1 win, three 1-2 defeats
- Average 20.0 total games and 2.33 sets per match
- Set 1 record 6-6 (4.17 games won, 5.08 lost per set); set 2 record 6-6 (3.75 won, 4.17 lost)
- Three retirements were excluded from the sample
Kikuchi, ranked 892, has no serve, return or point metrics recorded for the tracked window, leaving his scorelines as the only form guide.
His most recent completed match, a 0-6 2-6 loss to Bernard Tomic (184) on 15 September, is the widest margin in the record and shows how quickly he can be swept aside. It is one match rather than a trend, but it is also the freshest entry, 19 days before this fixture, and nothing more recent offsets it.
- 0-6 2-6 defeat to Bernard Tomic (ranked 184) on 15 September 2026, 2-12 in games
- This is Kikuchi's most recent completed match in the tracked record, 19 days before this fixture
- Kikuchi is ranked 892 and has no first-serve, return or point metrics available for the window

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 4.25
The read
Ogura is the slightly higher-ranked and more active player, with steadier serve numbers and fresh wins in China this month.
- Ranked 817 against Kikuchi's 892; 8-7 in the last 15 hard-court matches
- Won 49.3% of total points and 51.4% of sets in that span
- Won two of three matches in China in the first week of October
- Holds 63.3% of first-serve points and saves 58.1% of break points (14 matches)
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostKousuke OguraEstimated chance55%

Games3 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Only lopsided scorelines beat a 3.5-game start, and most of Ogura's recent matches have been closer than that.
- Covers +3.5 in 4 of 6 recent completed matches
- Recent margins: -4, +3, +10, -2, +2, -4
- Average 22.4 total games across 14 hard-court matches
- Match record 8-7 in the tracked window
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostKousuke Ogura +3.5Estimated chance73%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Ogura has kept most recent scorelines within two games either way, which suits a 2.5-game cushion.
- Covers +2.5 in 4 of 6 recent completed matches
- Only two of those six margins were worse than two games
- Games won 175 of 348 (50.3%) across 15 hard-court matches
- Average match length 120.4 minutes across 14 matches
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostKousuke Ogura +2.5Estimated chance67%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Ogura is favoured to win and has usually stayed within a couple of games even when losing, so a 1.5-game start is useful.
- Recent game margins: -4, +3, +10, -2, +2, -4 (six completed matches)
- Covers +1.5 in 3 of those 6 (better than a one-game loss)
- Only two of those six margins were worse than two games
- Games won 175 of 348 (50.3%) across 15 matches
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostKousuke Ogura +1.5Estimated chance59%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.95
The read
Both players' averages sit below the line, helped by the high share of straight-set finishes.
- Combined average 21.2 games across 26 tracked hard-court matches
- Kikuchi's last four matches: 14, 19, 16, 21 games
- Kikuchi averages 20.0 games per match in SetEvidence
- Ogura averages 22.4 games per match
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 23.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kikuchi's second sets have averaged under eight games, pulling the combined figure below the line.
- Combined second-set average of 8.67 games
- Kikuchi's set2: 3.75 games won and 4.17 lost per set
- Ogura's set2: 5.00 won and 4.43 lost per set
- Kikuchi has won 6 of 12 second sets
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined average sits just above the line, with Ogura's opening sets frequently reaching ten games.
- Kikuchi's opening sets average 9.25 games
- Ogura's opening sets average 10.0 games
- Combined average 9.6 games per opening set
- Ogura's set1: 4.79 games won and 5.21 lost per set
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance51%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Both players' records are dominated by straight-set results, making a two-set match the more likely outcome.
- Kikuchi: 8 of 12 matches finished in straight sets
- Ogura: 10 of 14 matches finished in straight sets
- Combined average 2.31 sets per match
- Kikuchi's last five matches were all decided in two sets
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 5.50
The read
The second set has been Ogura's strongest phase and his overall edge carries into the middle set.
- Has won 9 of 14 second sets (64%)
- Set2 games average 5.00 won and 4.43 lost per set
- Overall 8-7 on hard in the tracked window
- Two recent matches required a deciding set
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostKousuke OguraEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Kikuchi's opening sets have been far more even than Ogura's, who has lost nine of fourteen first sets.
- Has won 6 of 12 opening sets on hard
- Ogura has won only 5 of 14 opening sets
- Set1 games average 4.17 won and 5.08 lost per set
- Overall 5-7 in the tracked window
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonYuta KikuchiEstimated chance51%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most of both players' sets are decided before 6-6, making no tiebreak the more likely outcome.
- 7 of 26 combined hard-court matches contained a tiebreak
- Kikuchi: 2 tiebreak matches in 12
- Ogura: 5 tiebreak matches in 14
- Ogura's set1 tiebreaks: 3 of 14 sets
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance70%

Yuta Kikuchi

7W 8L

6-0 6-2#184Bernard Tomic

7-5 6-1#782Tsung-Hao Huang

5-0 ret.#880Mikalai Haliak

6-1 6-3#753Yunseong Chung

7-6(4) 6-2—Sena Okabe

3-6 7-5 3-0 ret.#817Kousuke Ogura

6-4 6-1#891Qian Sun

4-6 6-0 6-3#688Shinji Hazawa

6-2 3-6 6-0—Noritaka Koizumi

6-1 6-2#754Uisung Park

6-4 4-0 ret.—Weiwen Pan

6-4 6-4—Charlie Pade

6-3 3-6 6-1#760Taisei Ichikawa

6-0 6-1—Yue Xia

7-6(5) 1-6 7-5—Yan Cheng Chen

Kousuke Ogura

8W 7L

7-5 7-5#686Ryuki Matsuda

4-6 6-2 7-6(2)#743Dong Ju Kim

6-0 6-2—Minghui Zhang

6-4 4-6 6-4#493Alexandr Binda

7-6(3) 7-6(7)#896Daisuke Sumizawa

7-6(2) 6-3#675Seongchan Hong

6-4 6-4#577Robin Catry

6-1 2-6 6-2#331Yanki Erel

6-3 6-3#428Omar Jasika

3-6 6-3 10-7#867Tomohiro Masabayashi

6-1 6-3—Tzu-Yuan Tseng

6-3 6-1#500Hiroki Moriya

7-6(3) 6-2#428Omar Jasika

3-6 7-6(4) 6-4#278Matthew Dellavedova

7-5 6-2#882Duckhee Lee

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

YKYuta KikuchiKikuchi

Last 15

1–6

9 core stats · 2 even

Kousuke OguraOguraKO

Kousuke Ogura carries the stronger recent form — Yuta Kikuchi's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 0–4 · 1 even

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1557.1%—56.5%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1562.3%+1.0pp63.3%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1548.7%+6.4pp55.1%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/151.6+1.02.6

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/152.50.6 fewer1.9

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1538.7%—38.4%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1546.9%+6.7pp40.2%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1544.0%+14.1pp58.1%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1547.4%+1.9pp49.3%

Serve · 0–4 · 1 even

57.1%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15—56.5%

62.3%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+1.0pp63.3%

48.7%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+6.4pp55.1%

1.6Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+1.02.6

2.5Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/150.6 fewer1.9

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

38.7%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15—38.4%

Pressure · 1–1

46.9%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+6.7pp40.2%

44.0%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+14.1pp58.1%

Points · 0–1

47.4%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+1.9pp49.3%

Yuta Kikuchi

Kosuke Ogura

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 2.5

Kousuke Ogura +2.5

Under 23.5

Kousuke Ogura

Kousuke Ogura

Result0 of 1 landed

Games3 of 6 landed

Sets2 of 3 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Yuta Kikuchi

Kousuke Ogura

Stat Battle