PortugalBraga - PortugalFinished

Predictions graded

Sergi Perez Contri #462Spain1Nicolas Barrientos #892Colombia2

Sets 6-7 · 6-1 · 4-6Sun 4 Oct 2026, 13:55 Predictions gradedQ1Clay

Predictions3–633%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageSergi Perez Contri · 430 places

Sergi Perez Contri

Spain

Perez Contri, 28, is the 1.75m left-hander in this matchup. His recorded career-high ranking is No. 447 in July 2026; no verified preferred-surface declaration was found.

Current ranking: #462
Peak ranking: #447 · 2026
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 175 cm

Nicolas Barrientos

Colombia

Barrientos, 39, is a right-hander who primarily competes in doubles. His highest singles ranking was No. 237 in September 2015; he reached No. 47 in doubles in April 2024.

Current ranking: #892
Peak ranking: #237 · 2015
Current age: 39
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Oct 2026, 15:38 · Europe/Bucharest

Perez Contri arrives as the higher-ranked player with the more recent clay results against Barrientos, whose 7-7 clay record runs from May 2023 to August 2026 and whose latest tracked match was a 4-12 games loss.

Perez Contri is the likely winner, but the 1.36 on him asks more than this matchup supports. Barrientos at 2.9 is the one quoted price that offers something, with the risk of that thin, three-year sample.

Context

Barrientos, No. 892, has a clay record built on quick finishes rather than long matches, and his wins have come almost exclusively in two sets.
If Barrientos wins, it is likely to come in straight sets, since six of his seven clay wins were 2-0; if he loses, five of his seven defeats were also in two sets. That shapes this as a match that could be settled without a third set either way, which is the main way an upset here would look.
- Barrientos clay scorelines across 14 matches dated 2 May 2023–30 Aug 2026: six 2-0 wins, five 0-2 losses, one 2-1 win, two 1-2 losses.
- Only three of those 14 clay matches reached a deciding set.
The left-handed Perez Contri, at No. 440 the higher-ranked player here, has often needed a set to find his clay game.
Losing the first set would not end Perez Contri's chances — four of his eight clay wins came from a set down — so Barrientos taking the opener would not settle this match. His second sets, at 7-6, are his stronger return, which is where the edge is most likely to show.
- Perez Contri clay first sets: 6-7 across 13 matches dated 15 Jul–6 Sep 2026.
- He is 8-5 in those matches, with four 2-1 wins and one 1-2 loss.
- His clay second-set record is 7-6 over the same 13 matches.
Barrientos has only a handful of clay matches logged across 2026, and this is the freshest of them.
One match does not establish a trend, and it says nothing about his condition for this fixture. It is simply the most recent evidence available on him, and it came against a higher-ranked opponent, which is worth weighing alongside a clay record that is otherwise split evenly at 7-7.
- Barrientos lost 2-6 2-6 (4-12 in games) to Eduardo Ribeiro (No. 340) on clay on 30 Aug 2026.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Perez Contri is the higher-ranked player and his clay results come from a tight recent window, while Barrientos has been alternating wins and losses against similar or lower-ranked opposition.
- Perez Contri: world No. 440; 8-5 on clay across 13 tracked matches dated 15 Jul-6 Sep 2026.
- Perez Contri clay scorelines: four 2-0 wins, four 2-1 wins, four 0-2 losses, one 1-2 loss.
- Barrientos: world No. 892; 7-7 on clay, but his 14-match clay set sample stretches from May 2023 to Aug 2026.
- Barrientos lost his most recent clay match 4-12 in games to Eduardo Ribeiro (No. 340) on 30 Aug 2026.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSergi Perez ContriEstimated chance63%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Perez Contri's recent clay sets are consistently close, and his average match length sits just above the line even though Barrientos's older sample is shorter.
- Perez Contri clay matches average 24.2 total games across 13 matches.
- Barrientos clay matches average 20.0 total games across 14 matches, but that window is long and old.
- Seven of Perez Contri's 13 clay matches contained a tiebreak.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 22.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Perez Contri's second sets are his longest, which nudges the game count over the line.
- Perez Contri's second sets average 10.38 total games across 13 clay matches.
- Barrientos's second sets average 8.86 total games across 14 clay matches.
- Perez Contri has played three second-set tiebreaks in 13 clay matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Perez Contri's tight opening sets push this slightly above the line, while Barrientos's older sample pulls the other way.
- Perez Contri's first sets average 10.0 total games across 13 clay matches.
- Barrientos's first sets average 8.93 total games across 14 clay matches.
- Perez Contri has played four first-set tiebreaks in 13 clay matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance51%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set results dominate both players' clay records, most strongly on Barrientos's side.
- Only three of Barrientos's 14 clay matches reached a deciding set.
- Barrientos's 14 clay scorelines include six 2-0 wins and five 0-2 losses.
- Perez Contri's clay scorelines include eight straight-set results in 13 matches.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Perez Contri's second-set output is his best part of the match, and it reinforces his overall edge.
- Perez Contri is 7-6 in second sets on clay across 13 matches.
- Barrientos is 8-6 in second sets on clay across 14 matches.
- Perez Contri wins 5.54 games on average in second sets, his strongest set.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonSergi Perez ContriEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Perez Contri is the stronger overall player here, but his own first-set record shows he often starts level or behind.
- Perez Contri is 6-7 in opening sets on clay across 13 matches, below his 8-5 match record.
- Barrientos is 7-7 in opening sets on clay across 14 matches.
- Perez Contri has four clay wins from a set down, indicating slow starts.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostSergi Perez ContriEstimated chance54%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Barrientos's sets are usually settled by a break rather than a tiebreak, which points away from a tiebreak in this match.
- Barrientos has played only two tiebreaks in 14 clay matches.
- Barrientos's first and second sets average 8.93 and 8.86 total games.
- Perez Contri's 13 clay matches contained seven tiebreaks in total.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance57%

Sergi Perez Contri

9W 6L

6-7(3) 6-4 6-4#559Alexander Ritschard

7-6(4) 7-6(4)#559Alexander Ritschard

2-6 7-6(0) 6-2#630Pedro Rodenas

6-4 5-7 6-4#784Carles Hernandez

5-1 ret.#786Carles Cordoba

7-6(2) 6-4#659Ignacio Parisca

6-3 6-4#559Alexander Ritschard

3-6 6-4 7-6(3)#631Carlos Lopez Montagud

2-6 6-1 6-3—Bernardo Munk Mesa

7-6(2) 6-1—Pablo Aunion

6-2 7-6(9)#659Ignacio Parisca

6-2 6-4#681Pablo Martinez Gomez

6-2 6-4#584Alejandro Juan Mano

6-4 6-4—Luis Garcia Paez

2-6 6-3 6-3#807Oscar Weightman

Nicolas Barrientos

7W 8L

6-2 6-2#340Eduardo Ribeiro

6-4 7-5#466Denis Yevseyev

6-4 6-3#641Stefan Adrian Andreescu

6-4 ret.#536Luca Potenza

7-6(3) 6-2#523Fabrizio Andaloro

6-1 7-6(3)#592Christoph Negritu

6-2 6-2#360Juan Pablo Ficovich

6-3 6-4#477Juan Alejandro Hernandez

3-6 6-2 6-4#435Paulo Saraiva Dos Santos

6-4 6-0#617Thiago Cigarran

6-4 6-2#834Johan Alexander Rodriguez

6-3 6-4#190Facundo Mena

6-3 6-2#592Christoph Negritu

1-6 6-0 7-5#320Enrico Dalla Valle

6-0 4-6 6-3#898Steven Diez

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

SCSergi Perez ContriContri

Last 15

4–4

9 core stats · 1 even

Nicolas BarrientosBarrientosNB

Dead-even recent form — the edges are in serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In67.2%+5.9pp61.3%

1st Serve Won60.0%+5.3pp65.3%

2nd Serve Won50.1%+1.3pp48.8%

Aces / Match0.7+1.72.4

Double Faults / Match4.30.5 fewer3.8

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won45.3%+4.6pp40.7%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted43.0%—43.6%

Break Pts Saved53.2%+5.1pp58.3%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won50.9%+1.1pp49.8%

Serve · 2–3

67.2%1st Serve In+5.9pp61.3%

60.0%1st Serve Won+5.3pp65.3%

50.1%2nd Serve Won+1.3pp48.8%

0.7Aces / Match+1.72.4

4.3Double Faults / Match0.5 fewer3.8

Return · 1–0

45.3%Return Pts Won+4.6pp40.7%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

43.0%Break Pts Converted—43.6%

53.2%Break Pts Saved+5.1pp58.3%

Points · 1–0

50.9%Total Pts Won+1.1pp49.8%