SpainVillena - SpainFinished

Predictions graded

Philip Henning #2642Thijs Boogaard #481Netherlands1

Sets 6-2 · 6-7 · 6-3Sun 4 Oct 2026, 13:14 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions3–925%

Edges2–340%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantagePhilip Henning · 217 places

Philip Henning

Henning, 25, is the right-hander in this matchup. His No. 264 singles ranking is his highest listed career position.

Current ranking: #264
Peak ranking: #264
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Thijs Boogaard

Netherlands

Boogaard, 481, is the right-hander in this matchup. Reliable public profile detail beyond his ranking, 183 cm height and two-handed backhand is thin. Use the form section as the main player context.

Current ranking: #481
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Oct 2026, 15:29 · Europe/Bucharest

Henning, ranked 266, is the better hard-court player in this Villena qualifying opener, and the most likely outcome is a Henning win, probably in straight sets.

Both men, though, arrive on losing runs. The 1.4 on Henning to win, 1.45 on the first set and 1.36 on Boogaard losing by five games or fewer all ask for more than the records support; Henning 2-0 at 2.0 gives nothing either. Under 2.5 sets at 1.45 is the one reviewed price worth taking.

Context

Henning is still the higher-ranked player here at No. 266 and had built a 10-4 hard-court record before that result.
This is the sharpest reminder that the ranking gap in this qualifying opener does not travel with a guarantee. A far lower-ranked opponent beat Henning in straight sets days before this match, and it was the second of his two most recent completed defeats.
- 26 September 2026, hard court: lost 4-6 4-6 to Alec Deckers, ranked No. 654
- Completed match, not a retirement; straight-sets defeat in two sets
His hard-court record across the wider window is a more respectable 8-4, so the recent slide sits against a better body of work.
The ranking gap and this recent run point the same way, which is why Henning is the likely winner, but Boogaard's wins in the same sample include a 6-1 6-0 and a 6-1 6-3, so he can still dominate a lower-ranked opponent himself.
- 27 September 2026: lost 2-6 2-6 to Alberto Barroso Campos, ranked No. 705
- Four defeats in five completed matches between 4 and 27 September 2026
The sample is 14 completed hard-court matches in best-of-three format, covering both his wins and his defeats.
This is the strongest single reason to expect a short match in Villena, but the same record contains three two-set defeats, so the pattern describes the likely shape of the contest rather than who comes out of it.
- 12 of 14 completed hard-court matches (4 Aug – 30 Sep 2026) finished in two sets
- Nine of those 14 matches were 2-0 wins for Henning
- Only two of the 14 went to a deciding third set
Boogaard has won 8 of 12 first sets on hard within this window while averaging 5.5 games won and 4.5 lost per opener.
His first sets are competitive but long, so a strong start from him against Henning would more likely be decided on fine margins than by a runaway set. The 12-match sample excludes one retired match, which is a limit on how firmly the pattern can be read.
- 12 hard-court matches tracked from 17 June to 27 September 2026 (one retired match excluded)
- Four first-set tiebreaks across those 12 matches; first sets average 10 total games
- First-set record in the sample is 8-4

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Game HandicaplostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Thijs Boogaard +5.5

1.36fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 73.5%

−3.5ppshort

Keeping the losing margin to five games or fewer fits both players' typical game differences on this surface.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Philip Henning

1.45fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 69%

−4.0ppshort

Henning has been the stronger starter on hard courts, taking 11 of 14 opening sets in this window.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Henning is the higher-ranked player with the steadier serve and the better record of taking opening sets on this surface.
- Hard-court record in the available window: 10-4, with 53.5% of total points won
- Serve on hard: 63.7% first serves in, 70.6% first-serve points won, 59.4% second-serve points won
- 2026 hard-court set 1 record 11-3 and set 2 record 9-5
- Ranking 266 against 481
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonPhilip HenningEstimated chance63%

Games1 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.36
The read
Keeping the losing margin to five games or fewer fits both players' typical game differences on this surface.
- Henning's average hard-court game margin is +2.6 per match
- Boogaard's hard-court matches average 20.75 total games
- Only two of Henning's 14 hard-court matches went to three sets
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostThijs Boogaard +5.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Henning has out-scored opponents on hard courts across the window while Boogaard has been slightly behind in games recently.
- Hard-court games: 160 won, 123 lost across 14 matches, a margin of +37 (+2.6 per match)
- Boogaard is -2 in games across his last six completed matches
- Boogaard has lost four of his last five completed matches
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonPhilip Henning -1.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets are consistently the shorter set for both players on this surface.
- Henning's second sets average 9.4 total games
- Boogaard's second sets average 8.9 total games
- Only four second-set tiebreaks between them across 26 hard-court matches
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Boogaard needs to lose by fewer than four games, and his competitive set scores suggest he can keep the margin small.
- Boogaard has kept his matches to 20.75 games on average on hard courts
- Henning has won by three-game and four-game margins in his recent victories
- Boogaard's first sets on hard average 10 games
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostThijs Boogaard +3.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players usually finish in straight sets, and typical straight-set scorelines fall beneath this line.
- Only two of Henning's 14 hard-court matches went to three sets
- Two of Boogaard's 12 hard-court matches went to three sets
- Their straight-set matches average roughly 19 games
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 20.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First sets for these two sit right at the line, with Boogaard's opening sets tending slightly longer.
- Henning's first sets average 9.4 total games on hard
- Boogaard's first sets average 10.0 total games on hard
- Boogaard has had four first-set tiebreaks in 12 hard matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance53%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.45
The read
The large majority of both players' recent hard-court matches have finished in two sets.
- Twelve of Henning's 14 hard-court matches ended in straight sets
- Ten of Boogaard's 12 hard-court matches ended in straight sets
- Henning's straight-set wins account for nine of his ten hard-court victories
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Henning has been the stronger starter on hard courts, taking 11 of 14 opening sets in this window.
- Henning's first-set record on hard is 11-3
- Boogaard's first-set record on hard is 8-4
- Henning wins 5.5 games per first set against 3.9 lost
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonPhilip HenningEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Henning holds the better second-set record on hard courts, while Boogaard is level in that set.
- Henning's second-set record on hard is 9-5
- Boogaard's second-set record on hard is 6-6
- Henning wins 5.2 games per second set against 4.1 lost
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostPhilip HenningEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Henning's hard-court matches usually contain a break rather than a tiebreak, and he is the more likely server to hold comfortably.
- Only three of Henning's 14 hard-court matches contained a tiebreak
- Eleven of Henning's 14 hard-court matches finished without a tiebreak
- Both players' straight-set matches average around 19 games
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance64%

Philip Henning

10W 5L

6-3 6-4#153Tristan Schoolkate

6-4 6-4#654Alec Deckers

6-4 7-6(1)#387Robin Bertrand

6-4 6-4#895Tomas Curras Abasolo

6-4 2-6 6-4—Joao Dinis Silva

3-6 6-3 6-4—Rodrigo Fernandes

6-2 6-1—Alexander Watanabe Eriksson

6-2 6-2—Diogo Coelho

6-4 6-3#384Dan Added

6-4 7-6(0)#709Tristan Mccormick

6-1 6-2#406Pavel Lagutin

6-3 6-4#643Tiago Cacao

7-6(2) 6-0—Bernardo Munk Mesa

6-3 6-4#234Maks Kasnikowski

2-6 6-4 6-2#254Martin Krumich

Thijs Boogaard

10W 5L

6-2 6-2#705Alberto Barroso Campos

6-4 7-6(4)#899Lucas Renard

6-1 6-0—Love Nyqvist

6-2 7-6(0)—Sergey Petrov

7-6(2) 6-2#777Conor Gannon

6-1 6-3—Zian Vanderstappen

6-1 6-4—Karim Mabrouk

6-1 6-1#187Jan Kumstat

6-0 4-6 4-2 ret.#515Gerard Campana Lee

3-6 7-6(3) 6-4#169Gauthier Onclin

7-5 2-6 7-5#359Tiago Torres

7-6(4) 6-2#523Fabrizio Andaloro

7-6(5) 6-0#290Carl Emil Overbeck

6-3 3-6 6-4#362Patrick Schoen

7-6(8) 6-3#652Goncalo Marques

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

PHPhilip HenningHenning

Last 15

7–0

9 core stats · 2 even

Thijs BoogaardBoogaardTB

Philip Henning carries the stronger recent form — Thijs Boogaard's route runs through return pts won.

Serve · 4–0 · 1 even

1st Serve In64.0%+2.6pp61.4%

1st Serve Won69.4%+1.5pp67.9%

2nd Serve Won58.1%+2.7pp55.4%

Aces / Match3.6—3.4

Double Faults / Match1.91.4 fewer3.3

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won41.2%—41.1%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted42.5%+6.4pp36.1%

Break Pts Saved65.5%+9.9pp55.6%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won53.1%+1.3pp51.8%

Serve · 4–0 · 1 even

64.0%1st Serve In+2.6pp61.4%

69.4%1st Serve Won+1.5pp67.9%

58.1%2nd Serve Won+2.7pp55.4%

3.6Aces / Match—3.4

1.9Double Faults / Match1.4 fewer3.3

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

41.2%Return Pts Won—41.1%

Pressure · 2–0

42.5%Break Pts Converted+6.4pp36.1%

65.5%Break Pts Saved+9.9pp55.6%

Points · 1–0

53.1%Total Pts Won+1.3pp51.8%

Philip Henning

Thijs Boogaard

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 2.5

Thijs Boogaard +5.5

Philip Henning

Philip Henning

Philip Henning 2-0

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 6 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Philip Henning

Thijs Boogaard

Stat Battle