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Predictions graded

Patrick Brady #812United Kingdom1Mili Poljicak #264Croatia2

Sets 4-6 · 6-3 · 5-7Sun 4 Oct 2026, 16:11 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions5–456%

Edges1–325%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMili Poljicak · 548 places

Patrick Brady

United Kingdom

British right-hander, born 14 November 2004. Public profile sources list a career-best singles ranking of No. 728 in February 2024; no reliable preferred-surface or current injury trajectory source was found.

Current ranking: #812
Peak ranking: #728 · 2024
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Mili Poljicak

Croatia

Croatian right-hander, born 13 July 2004, reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 257 on 30 June 2025. ITF lists hard courts as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #264
Peak ranking: #257 · 2025
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Oct 2026, 15:38 · Europe/Bucharest

A 710-ranked player with 13 hard-court matches against a 293-ranked opponent with just two — that is the tension in this Villena qualifier.

Brady's serve and return numbers point to him winning, most likely in straight sets. Brady at 2.0 for the match, 2.0 for the first set, 1.95 for the second and 3.2 for a 2-0 win are prices worth taking.

Context

Brady's hard-court matches have been decided quickly: the 13 completed matches averaged 2.15 sets and 19.9 games, with 10 of 13 first sets and 10 of 13 second sets going his way. Two of his four defeats did stretch to a third set, so the straight-sets pattern is a tendency from a three-month window rather than a fixed rule. It sets a clear expectation about the shape of this qualifier if his serving holds up.
- 29 July–14 September 2026: 13 hard-court matches with scorelines of nine 2-0 wins, two 0-2 losses and two 1-2 losses
- Average 2.15 sets and 19.9 games per match across that sample
- Set one won 10 of 13 times, set two won 10 of 13 times
That is the most recent completed match in his record and comfortably his heaviest recent loss, coming against a player ranked far above either man in this qualifier. One result says little about how he will handle a 710-ranked opponent, and the wider picture is that his hard-court form is largely unknown: two matches, one win and one loss, between 28 September and 1 October 2026.
- 1 October 2026: lost 2-6 0-6 to Henrique Rocha (ranked 127) on hard
- Two games won across the match, including a 0-6 second set
- Part of a two-match hard-court sample in the tracked window
That reliability is the base of his game: with the first serve in, he wins seven of every ten points, which limits return chances and supports his 52.7% share of total points across the same 15 matches. When the first serve misses, his second-serve points won drops to 51.9%, so an opponent who neutralises the first delivery can find openings. The sample covers 15 tracked matches through his most recent one on 14 September 2026 and is overall rather than hard-court only.
- 15 tracked matches: 643 of 874 first serves in (73.6%) and 452 of 643 first-serve points won (70.3%)
- 10-5 record across those matches
- Second-serve points won: 120 of 231 (51.9%)

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Brady's larger, better hard-court sample shows stronger serving and return numbers than Poljicak's recent output.
- Brady: 9-4 in 13 hard-court matches in this window, winning 58.3% of games and 53.6% of points
- Brady on hard: 74.0% first serves in, 71.1% of first-serve points won, 41.3% of return points won
- Poljicak's hard-court sample is 2 matches (1-1); his overall 15-match record is 8-7 with 49.3% of points won
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostPatrick BradyEstimated chance57%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Brady's hard-court matches have generally produced around 20 games, which sits above the line.
- Brady's 13 hard-court matches average 19.9 total games
- Poljicak's two hard matches totalled 14 and 17 games
- Brady's set averages: 9.5 games in set one, 8.9 in set two
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 17.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' second-set game totals sit below the line in their recent hard-court matches.
- Brady's second sets average 8.9 total games
- Poljicak's second sets average 8.0 total games
- Only 1 tiebreak in 13 of Brady's second sets
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Brady's opening sets sit right on the line, with a slight lean to going past nine games.
- Brady's set one averages 9.5 total games across 13 hard matches
- Brady's set one: 5.85 games won, 3.69 lost
- Only 2 tiebreaks in Brady's 13 first sets
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Most of Brady's hard-court matches finished in straight sets and neither player's recent hard-court scores suggest long matches.
- Brady's 13 hard-court matches averaged 2.15 sets, with 9 of 13 ending 2-0
- Poljicak's two hard matches both ended in straight sets
- Combined setBetting view: straight sets 63%
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Brady has started strongly on hard, taking the opening set in most of his matches in this window.
- Brady won set one in 10 of 13 hard matches
- Brady averages 5.85 games won against 3.69 lost in set one
- Poljicak is 1-1 in set one on hard
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostPatrick BradyEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.95
The read
Brady's second-set record on hard matches his strong opening-set numbers.
- Brady won set two in 10 of 13 hard matches
- Brady averages 5.31 games won against 3.62 lost in set two
- Only 1 tiebreak in 13 second sets
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonPatrick BradyEstimated chance57%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tiebreaks have been uncommon in the available hard-court matches for both players.
- 10 of Brady's 13 hard matches had no tiebreak
- Poljicak's 2 hard matches had no tiebreak
- Brady's hard sets average under 10 games each
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance67%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Combined ace rates on hard point to fewer than ten aces over a two- or three-set match.
- Combined hard-court ace rate: roughly 6 per match
- Brady: 3.2 aces per hard match
- Poljicak: 6 aces across 2 hard matches
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Poljicak's recent hard-court double-fault rate alone puts the combined total near the line.
- Poljicak averaged 4.0 double faults per hard match (8 in 2)
- Poljicak's overall rate is 2.1 per match
- Brady averages 1.5 double faults per hard match
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance56%

Patrick Brady

10W 5L

4-6 6-3 6-1#288Max Schoenhaus

6-1 6-2#570Toufik Sahtali

6-4 6-1#261Charles Broom

6-3 6-2#510Patrick Zahraj

6-1 6-3#647Andreja Petrovic

7-5 6-2#443Alafia Ayeni

6-4 4-6 7-5#394Lui Maxted

6-4 7-6(4)#654Alec Deckers

6-1 6-4#443Alafia Ayeni

6-1 6-0#898Jesse Delaney

7-6(6) 6-4#459Emile Hudd

7-6(5) 6-4#816Toby Martin

6-3 6-2#965Alexis Canter

6-1 6-1#287Alastair Gray

6-3 7-5#718Herman Hoeyeraal

Mili Poljicak

8W 7L

6-2 6-0#127Henrique Rocha

6-1 6-4#244Max Basing

6-4 6-4#134Stefanos Sakellaridis

6-2 6-3#171Matej Dodig

6-4 6-3#288Max Schoenhaus

7-6(6) 6-1#690Sebastian Dominko

6-4 6-0—Vaal Urankar

6-1 6-4#69Facundo Diaz Acosta

7-5 6-4#193Juan Pablo Varillas

7-6(3) 6-7(4) 7-5#132Alexandre Muller

6-7(8) 6-3 6-4#121Nikoloz Basilashvili

7-6(6) 7-6(2)#320Enrico Dalla Valle

7-6(14) 6-3#889Jozef Kovalik

6-3 6-4—Enrico Baldisserri

6-2 3-6 6-3#256Mika Brunold

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

PBPatrick BradyBrady

Last 15

6–3

9 core stats · 0 even

Mili PoljicakPoljicakMP

Patrick Brady carries the stronger recent form — Mili Poljicak's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In73.6%+17.0pp56.6%

1st Serve Won70.3%+3.0pp73.3%

2nd Serve Won51.9%+2.3pp49.6%

Aces / Match3.0+3.36.3

Double Faults / Match1.50.6 fewer2.1

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won40.2%+4.3pp35.9%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted52.9%+19.9pp33.0%

Break Pts Saved49.2%+7.9pp57.1%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won52.7%+3.4pp49.3%

Serve · 3–2

73.6%1st Serve In+17.0pp56.6%

70.3%1st Serve Won+3.0pp73.3%

51.9%2nd Serve Won+2.3pp49.6%

3.0Aces / Match+3.36.3

1.5Double Faults / Match0.6 fewer2.1

Return · 1–0

40.2%Return Pts Won+4.3pp35.9%

Pressure · 1–1

52.9%Break Pts Converted+19.9pp33.0%

49.2%Break Pts Saved+7.9pp57.1%

Points · 1–0

52.7%Total Pts Won+3.4pp49.3%

Patrick Brady

Mili Poljicak

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Patrick Brady

Patrick Brady

Patrick Brady

Patrick Brady 2-0

Result0 of 1 landed

Games3 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Patrick Brady

Mili Poljicak

Stat Battle