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Predictions graded

Lucio Ratti #380Argentina2Joao Victor Couto Loureiro #883Brazil0

Sets 6-4 · 7-5Sun 4 Oct 2026, 18:42 Predictions gradedQ1Clay

Predictions5–456%

Edges0–20%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageLucio Ratti · 503 places

Lucio Ratti

Argentina

Argentine right-hander, born 27 January 2004. Public player data lists a career-best No. 367 on 20 July 2026 and identifies hard courts as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #380
Peak ranking: #367 · 2026
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Joao Victor Couto Loureiro

Brazil

Brazilian right-hander ranked around No. 883 who has played almost exclusively on clay across recent months. Reliable public background detail is thin beyond his playing style and ranking.

Current ranking: #883
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Oct 2026, 15:46 · Europe/Bucharest

Ratti sits 500 ranking places above Loureiro, yet four of his last six clay matches ended in defeat to opponents ranked 530 or lower, while Loureiro has won 10 of 15 first sets on clay.

Ratti is still the likelier match winner. Two prices are worth considering: Loureiro to win the match at 5.75 and Loureiro to take the second set at 4. Ratti at 1.1 or 1.2 does not justify the risk.

Context

Loureiro has been a fast starter on clay, and that is where his numbers against a higher-ranked opponent look strongest.
Ten first-set wins from 15 clay matches is the most favourable split in his record, and he has taken 5.53 games against 4.07 lost in those sets. Three of the 15 matches went to a first-set tiebreak, so early breaks have not always come easily. The pattern does not carry through the match: he has won only 5 of 15 second sets in the same window, and his overall clay record there is 7-8. Against Ratti, the opening set is where his recent form gives him the firmest footing.
- Loureiro won 10 of 15 first sets on clay across matches from 22 July to 27 September 2026.
- His first-set game averages in that sample are 5.53 won and 4.07 lost.
- Three of the 15 clay matches featured a first-set tiebreak.
Ratti's clay numbers are mixed overall, but the second set is where his record separates.
Ratti's 12-match clay sample reads 7-5, and the second set is the part of it clearly in his favour: 7 wins from 12 and a positive game margin. His first sets sit level at 6-6 in the same matches, and only one of the 12 second sets reached a tiebreak. Twelve matches is a small sample, and a single set is a narrow thing to lean on. It is nonetheless the clearest split in his recent clay record.
- Ratti won 7 of 12 second sets on clay across matches from 26 June to 22 September 2026.
- He averages 5.00 second-set games won and 4.17 lost.
- His first-set record in the same 12-match clay sample is 6-6.
Loureiro's returning numbers are part of why a player ranked 883 stays competitive on this surface.
He has converted 45.9% of break points in that 15-match clay sample while saving 49 of 93 (52.7%) on his own serve, and he averages 3.9 aces per match. Those figures help explain how he has won 7 of 15 clay matches despite taking only 50.7% of total points. The sample is modest, and conversion rates at this level move around. It does mean Ratti cannot count on holding serve cheaply.
- Loureiro converted 51 of 111 break points (45.9%) across 15 clay matches from 22 July to 27 September 2026.
- He saved 49 of 93 break points (52.7%) in the same sample.
- He averages 3.9 aces per clay match.
The set scores show Ratti took the opener on a tiebreak before dropping the next two, so it was a close match against a much lower-ranked opponent rather than a heavy defeat. It is the most recent completed clay result in his record ahead of this first qualifying round in Antofagasta. One match on its own is not a trend, and an opponent's ranking is a snapshot rather than a full picture of his level. It does show Ratti has recently been taken the distance and beaten on this surface.
- Ratti lost 7-6, 3-6, 5-7 to Federico Coria (ranked 833) on 22 September 2026 on clay.
- The match is the most recent completed clay entry in his record before the 4 October 2026 kickoff.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ratti is higher ranked and slightly better across serve and return over the clay sample.
- Ratti is ranked 383; Loureiro is ranked 883.
- On clay, Ratti has won 53.9% of games; Loureiro 51.4%.
- Ratti has won 52.1% of total points on clay; Loureiro 50.7%.
- Loureiro has a better first-set record on clay (10-5) than Ratti (6-6).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonLucio RattiEstimated chance57%

Games0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' second sets average under 9.5 games on clay.
- Ratti's second sets average 9.17 total games on clay.
- Loureiro's second sets average 9.2 total games on clay.
- Combined second-set average is about 9.19 games.
- Ratti has 1 tiebreak in 12 second sets; Loureiro has 2 in 15.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined clay average is just above the line, with both players often playing close matches.
- Ratti's clay matches average 22.25 total games.
- Loureiro's clay matches average 23.33 total games.
- Combined clay average is about 22.85 games.
- In their last six clay matches each, 6 of 12 went over 22.5 games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 22.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined first-set average sits just under the line.
- Ratti's first sets average 9.08 total games on clay.
- Loureiro's first sets average 9.6 total games on clay.
- Combined first-set average is about 9.37 games.
- Ratti has 2 tiebreaks in 12 first sets on clay.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Ratti is clearly stronger in second sets, while Loureiro has a losing second-set record on clay.
- Ratti has won 7 of 12 second sets on clay.
- Ratti averages 5.0 second-set games won and 4.17 lost.
- Loureiro has won 5 of 15 second sets on clay.
- Loureiro averages 4.33 second-set games won and 4.87 lost.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonLucio RattiEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set outcomes are slightly more common than three-setters in their clay samples.
- Ratti has 7 straight-set matches in 12 clay matches.
- Loureiro has 8 straight-set matches in 15 clay matches.
- Ratti's average sets per clay match is 2.42.
- Loureiro's average sets per clay match is 2.47.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Loureiro has been the stronger first-set player on clay by both win count and game margin.
- Loureiro has won 10 of 15 first sets on clay.
- Loureiro averages 5.53 first-set games won and 4.07 lost.
- Ratti has won 6 of 12 first sets on clay.
- Ratti averages 4.67 first-set games won and 4.42 lost.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostJoao Victor Couto LoureiroEstimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The majority of their completed clay matches did not include a tiebreak.
- Ratti has had 3 tiebreaks in 12 clay matches.
- Loureiro has had 5 tiebreaks in 15 clay matches.
- Combined tiebreak rate is about 30% of clay matches.
- Most of their clay matches did not feature a tiebreak.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Combined double-fault average is clearly below the line.
- Ratti averages 2.4 double faults per clay match.
- Loureiro averages 3.4 double faults per clay match.
- Combined average is about 5.8 double faults per match.
- Both players' combined rate is below the 6.5 line.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 6.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace average is below the line.
- Ratti averages 1.5 aces per clay match.
- Loureiro averages 3.9 aces per clay match.
- Combined average is about 5.4 aces per match.
- Ratti's first-serve percentage is 66.6% on clay.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 5.5Estimated chance53%

Lucio Ratti

8W 7L

6-7(3) 6-3 7-5#833Federico Coria

6-1 5-7 6-4#593Lukas Pokorny

7-6(8) 7-5#551Adrian Oetzbach

6-2 6-1—Frederic Schlossmann

6-3 6-1—Nick Lemke

6-2 6-0#530Sander Jong

6-1 6-0—Maximilian Todorov

6-4 6-4#264Dominic Stricker

6-2 4-6 7-5#369Ognjen Milic

6-4 7-5#439Khumoun Sultanov

6-3 6-3#504Tai Sach

7-6(5) 6-1#244Max Basing

3-6 6-4 6-1#494Filip Jeff Planinsek

3-6 7-6(4) 6-1—Denis Petak

6-2 6-2—Vincent Dullinger

Joao Victor Couto Loureiro

7W 8L

7-5 6-3#854Victor Hugo Remondy Pagotto

7-6(3) 6-4#417Mateus Alves

7-6(0) 4-6 7-6(5)#873Rafael Tosetto

6-2 6-1—Victor Braga

5-7 6-2 6-4#854Deney Wassermann

7-6(6) 6-1#865Elgin Khoeblal

6-1 6-3—Gabrielius Guzauskas

6-2 6-7(3) 6-3—Elias Julian Werner

6-4 2-6 6-3—Botond Kisantal

2-6 7-5 6-4—Kevin Edengren

6-1 6-7(6) 6-3—Dorian Tremblay

6-4 6-1#879Davide Tortora

1-6 6-4 6-2#893Dominik Kellovsky

6-1 6-0#435Paulo Saraiva Dos Santos

6-3 6-3—Livas Eduardo De Carvalho Damazio

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

LRLucio RattiRatti

Last 15

4–4

9 core stats · 1 even

Joao Victor Couto LoureiroLoureiroJL

Dead-even recent form — the edges are in pressure.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In66.2%+3.3pp62.9%

1st Serve Won67.4%+1.0pp66.4%

2nd Serve Won51.0%+1.0pp52.0%

Aces / Match1.8+2.13.9

Double Faults / Match2.80.6 fewer3.4

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won41.6%+1.0pp40.6%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted36.9%+9.0pp45.9%

Break Pts Saved47.7%+5.0pp52.7%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won51.4%—50.7%

Serve · 3–2

66.2%1st Serve In+3.3pp62.9%

67.4%1st Serve Won+1.0pp66.4%

51.0%2nd Serve Won+1.0pp52.0%

1.8Aces / Match+2.13.9

2.8Double Faults / Match0.6 fewer3.4

Return · 1–0

41.6%Return Pts Won+1.0pp40.6%

Pressure · 0–2

36.9%Break Pts Converted+9.0pp45.9%

47.7%Break Pts Saved+5.0pp52.7%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

51.4%Total Pts Won—50.7%