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Predictions graded

Joao Eduardo Schiessl #512Brazil2Benjamin Torrealba #8011

Sets 6-3 · 4-6 · 7-5Sun 4 Oct 2026, 13:16 Predictions gradedQ1Clay

Predictions4–736%

Edges0–20%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageJoao Eduardo Schiessl · 289 places

Joao Eduardo Schiessl

Brazil

Brazilian left-hander ranked No. 512 who entered the Curitiba main draw on a wildcard. He was a semifinalist at this event in 2025 and spent the weeks before it at ITF M15 level in Brazil.

Current ranking: #512
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Left handed
Height: 180 cm

Benjamin Torrealba

Limited reliable public profile information found. Ranked No. 801, with no confirmed age, career-high ranking or preferred surface in the available data.

Current ranking: #801
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: —
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Oct 2026, 15:29 · Europe/Bucharest

Schiessl, the No. 512, meets the No.

801 Torrealba in the first qualifying round at Antofagasta, and their clay game numbers are almost identical — 48.9% to 50.0%. Schiessl is the likelier winner on ranking and serve, but 1.30 offers nothing. Torrealba to win at 3.25 is the one quoted price that does. Straight sets are the likelier shape, yet under 2.5 sets at 1.36 also gives nothing.

Context

Torrealba's clay record is unusually even: four straight-set wins, four straight-set defeats, four three-set defeats and a single three-set win.
Five of his 13 clay matches went to a deciding set, so his results rarely land in the middle. Against an opponent whose clay matches average 2.18 sets, that spread cuts both ways: a quick defeat is as plausible as a long one.
- 13 completed clay matches tracked, 2026-03-29 to 2026-08-19.
- Clay scorelines: four 2-0 wins, four 0-2 losses, four 1-2 losses, one 2-1 win.
- Clay matches averaged 2.38 sets and 23.2 total games.
Schiessl's clay evidence is the fresher of the two, with his most recent completed match coming three days before this qualifying round.
He lost that match in straight sets to a player ranked 661, going 11-14 on games, and he has now lost three of his last six completed clay matches. That is a form note drawn from the scoreline alone, not a statement about his condition.
- 2026-10-01: lost 0-2 to Luis Queiroz Miguel (No. 661) on clay, 6-7 5-7, 11-14 in games.
- That is his most recent completed match in the record, three days before this fixture.
Torrealba's clay sample ends on 2026-08-19, and it ends on a heavy defeat.
He won five games against a player ranked 887 and lost the first set 0-6. His listed matches after that date came on hard courts, so his clay numbers describe a stretch that finished more than six weeks before this fixture.
- 2026-08-19: lost 0-2 to Maxwell Exsted (No. 887) on clay, 0-6 5-7, 5-13 in games.
- His 13-match clay sample ends on 2026-08-19.
Schiessl's clay sets behave differently after the first: he has won five of 11 second sets while averaging 4.5 games won and 5.3 lost.
None of those 11 second sets reached a tiebreak, and all three of his clay tiebreaks came in opening sets. That points to second sets settled by a break rather than stretched to the wire, and to matches whose shape is decided early.
- 11 completed clay matches tracked, 2026-07-22 to 2026-10-01.
- Second sets: five won, six lost, averaging 4.5 games won and 5.3 lost.
- No second-set tiebreak in the sample; all three of his clay tiebreaks came in first sets.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Total SetslostUncertainty band: Lean

Under 2.5

1.36fair 1.56

BetBugs 64% · Market 73.5%

−9.5ppshort

The combined sample shows straight-set finishes clearly outnumbering deciders for both players on clay.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Schiessl is the better-ranked player and the slightly stronger server on clay, but the two are almost level on games won, so the edge is narrow.
- Schiessl is 5-6 on clay in the window, winning 48.9% of clay games (115/235)
- Torrealba is 5-8 on clay, winning 50.0% of clay games (151/302)
- Schiessl ranks 512 against Torrealba's 801
- On clay Schiessl wins 62.9% of first-serve points, Torrealba 60.8%
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonJoao Eduardo SchiesslEstimated chance53%

Games1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
A five-game cushion covers almost every losing pattern Torrealba is likely to produce, given the even clay game counts.
- Torrealba has won 151 of 302 clay games (50.0%)
- Schiessl has won 115 of 235 clay games (48.9%)
- Only four of Schiessl's 11 clay matches were 2-0 wins
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonBenjamin Torrealba +4.5Estimated chance76%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
With clay games essentially even, Torrealba staying within two games or winning outright is the more likely side of the line.
- Torrealba has won 50.0% of clay games
- Schiessl has won 48.9% of clay games
- Schiessl's clay margin of victory is rarely large
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostBenjamin Torrealba +2.5Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' clay first sets average above ten games, making the over the slightly better-supported side.
- Schiessl's clay first sets average 10.0 games
- Torrealba's clay first sets average 10.5 games
- Three of Schiessl's 11 clay matches had a first-set tiebreak
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Short one-sided second sets are common in these samples, so a sub-ten-game set is the more likely outcome.
- Torrealba's clay second sets average 9.1 games
- Schiessl's clay second sets average 9.8 games
- No tiebreaks in either player's clay second sets
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With straight sets the common outcome and Schiessl's matches short, the total sits marginally under the line.
- Schiessl's clay matches average 21.4 total games
- Torrealba's clay matches average 23.2 total games
- Combined clay straight-set rate is 17 of 24
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 22.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.36
The read
The combined sample shows straight-set finishes clearly outnumbering deciders for both players on clay.
- 17 of the 24 combined clay matches ended in straight sets
- Schiessl's clay matches average 2.18 sets
- Torrealba's clay matches average 2.38 sets
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Schiessl starts clay matches roughly level with Torrealba, and his small ranking and serving edge carries a slight first-set lean.
- Schiessl has won 5 of 11 clay first sets
- Torrealba has won 6 of 13 clay first sets
- Schiessl averages 5.0 games won and 5.0 lost in clay first sets
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonJoao Eduardo SchiesslEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Schiessl's overall edge keeps him a marginal favourite in the second set, though the two are separated by very little.
- Schiessl has won 5 of 11 clay second sets
- Torrealba has won 7 of 13 clay second sets
- Schiessl averages 4.5 games won and 5.3 lost in clay second sets
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostJoao Eduardo SchiesslEstimated chance51%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most of these matches are broken up before reaching a tiebreak, so the no side carries the clear edge.
- Only five of the 24 combined clay matches contained a tiebreak
- Schiessl's clay second sets produced none
- Torrealba's clay second sets produced none
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace projection sits just below 6.5, so the under is marginally the stronger side.
- Schiessl averages 2.4 aces per clay match
- Torrealba averages 3.5 aces per clay match
- Combined projection is close to the 6.5 line
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 6.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The two players' double-fault rates add up to about the line, with Torrealba's higher rate tipping it slightly over.
- Schiessl averages 2.1 double faults per clay match
- Torrealba averages 3.4 double faults per clay match
- Combined that projects to roughly 5.5 double faults
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance52%

Joao Eduardo Schiessl

8W 7L

7-6(4) 7-5#661Luis Queiroz Miguel

6-4 7-5#655Samuel Heredia

6-2 6-1#673Nicolas Zanellato

7-6(7) 6-4—Giovanni Branchetti

6-2 6-3—Eduardo Lage

7-6(11) 6-2#854Victor Hugo Remondy Pagotto

6-2 6-2#854Victor Hugo Remondy Pagotto

6-3 6-1—Luiz Felipe Silva

6-2 1-6 6-3—Andre Souza Pinto De Camargo

6-1 6-3—Franco Marini

6-4 5-7 6-4#463Felipe Meligeni Alves

6-3 4-6 6-1—Pedro Albuquerque Dietrich

6-2 6-3#708Nicolas Villalon

6-4 7-5#801Benjamin Torrealba

6-2 6-1#463Felipe Meligeni Alves

Benjamin Torrealba

6W 9L

5-7 6-1 6-1—Ivan Dreycopp

6-3 6-1—Estanislao Lassaga

6-0 7-5#887Maxwell Exsted

6-3 6-2—Manuel Mouilleron Salvo

7-6(5) 6-2#873Rafael Tosetto

6-7(5) 6-4 7-6(5)#729Wilson Leite

5-7 6-0 6-1—Joao Vitor Scramin Do Lago

6-4 7-5#512Joao Eduardo Schiessl

4-6 6-2 6-3#768Lucas Andrade Da Silva

7-5 4-6 6-4#887Pavlos Tsitsipas

6-3 6-4#707Franco Ribero

7-5 2-6 6-3#728Santiago De La Fuente

6-2 6-3—Joao Vitor Scramin Do Lago

7-5 6-3#347Carlos Maria Zarate

6-4 6-2#883Joao Victor Couto Loureiro

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

JSJoao Eduardo SchiesslSchiessl

Last 15

5–2

9 core stats · 2 even

Benjamin TorrealbaTorrealbaBT

Joao Eduardo Schiessl carries the stronger recent form — Benjamin Torrealba's route runs through serve.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In69.1%+8.9pp60.2%

1st Serve Won63.7%+2.0pp61.7%

2nd Serve Won48.8%+1.5pp47.3%

Aces / Match2.3+1.63.9

Double Faults / Match1.71.6 fewer3.3

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won40.4%+3.0pp43.4%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted43.7%—43.0%

Break Pts Saved60.4%+5.3pp55.1%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won50.1%—49.8%

Serve · 4–1

69.1%1st Serve In+8.9pp60.2%

63.7%1st Serve Won+2.0pp61.7%

48.8%2nd Serve Won+1.5pp47.3%

2.3Aces / Match+1.63.9

1.7Double Faults / Match1.6 fewer3.3

Return · 0–1

40.4%Return Pts Won+3.0pp43.4%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

43.7%Break Pts Converted—43.0%

60.4%Break Pts Saved+5.3pp55.1%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

50.1%Total Pts Won—49.8%