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Predictions graded

Han Shi #242China2Chengyiyi Yuan #432China1

Sets 3-6 · 6-4 · 6-4Sun 4 Oct 2026, 06:46 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions8–373%

Edges1–150%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageHan Shi · 190 places

Han Shi

China

Chinese right-hander ranked No. 242. Her recent record is built almost entirely on hard courts, with 10 wins in her last 13 hard-court matches tracked. She reached the Ankara Open round of 16 with a 6-1, 6-1 opening win over Alya Naz Altinel.

Current ranking: #242
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Chengyiyi Yuan

China

Chinese player ranked No. 432 in the WTA list used for this match, competing in her home country this week. Reliable public background information is thin, so use the form and context sections as the main guide.

Current ranking: #432
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: —
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 2 Oct 2026, 22:17 · Europe/Bucharest

Han Shi is the higher-ranked player and the likely winner, but she arrives two days after a three-set, two-hour-forty-four-minute loss in Beijing, while Chengyiyi Yuan has been idle for six days.

At 1.1 to win the match and 1.15 to take the first set there is nothing left in Shi's price. The two that do offer something are Yuan to win the match at 7 and Yuan to win the opening set at 4.75.

Context

Shi, 21, went through China Open qualifying and then lost a three-set first round to Zheng Qinwen, having taken the opening tiebreak. Zheng had just reached a Grand Slam quarter-final, so this is the strongest recent read on whether Shi can hold a set against main-tour pace. The counterweight is that she still lost the match, and the same week's three matches sit inside a two-day turnaround into this fixture.
- Shi won two qualifying matches at the China Open before losing 7-6(6) 4-6 6-2 to Zheng Qinwen in the first round .
- Zheng Qinwen had reached the US Open quarter-finals as a qualifier, beating Madison Keys and Iga Swiatek along the way.
- The first-round match lasted two hours forty-four minutes and was played on China's National Day.
ConfirmedSources checked 2 Oct 2026, 22:14 · Europe/Bucharest
Yuan sits at No. 442 but has been winning regularly, and her recent hard-court results are mostly long, close contests rather than quick finishes.
That pattern means a dropped set has not finished her off recently, and it is the main reason a one-sided scoreline against her looks less likely than the 211-place ranking gap suggests. The counterweight sits in the same sample: she lost the opening set in eight of those 14 matches, and her wins came against lower-ranked opposition. Shi's stronger recent results still make her the likely winner, but a tight match is well inside Yuan's recent range.
- Yuan's 14 hard-court matches from 6 August to 27 September 2026 produced scorelines of six 2-1 wins, three 2-0 wins, four 0-2 losses and one 1-2 loss.
- Seven of those 14 matches reached a third set, and her matches averaged 23.9 total games.
- Her first-set record in the same window is 6-8, with 4.1 games won and 5.0 lost per opening set.
- One retirement was excluded from the 14-match aggregate.
Shi has had two days since a three-set, two-hour-forty-four-minute match in Beijing, while Yuan has not competed since . If there is a physical difference between the two going into this fixture, that gap is it. It is a scheduling fact rather than a reported fitness problem: neither player has a documented withdrawal, retirement or medical issue in the current window, and a two-day gap is a normal tour turnaround.
- Shi's Beijing first-round match ran two hours forty-four minutes across three sets.
- Yuan's last recorded match was the Jingshan qualifying final, six days before this fixture.
ConfirmedSources checked 2 Oct 2026, 22:14 · Europe/Bucharest
Yuan was seeded in Jingshan qualifying and beat Nika Radisic, but lost the qualifying final to Amelia Rajecki and did not reach the main draw of that WTA 125 event. It leaves her without a main-draw appearance in the fortnight before this match and places her as the lower-ranked, less tested side. The reading is limited in both directions: one WTA 125 qualifying week says little about her ceiling, and her tracked results against top-400 opposition are sparse.
- Yuan beat Nika Radisic 6-2 6-3 in Jingshan qualifying .
- She lost the qualifying final to Amelia Rajecki, then ranked No. 392 and the second seed in qualifying.
ConfirmedSources checked 2 Oct 2026, 22:14 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Shi has been beating stronger opposition than the players who have been beating Yuan, and she holds the ranking and game-share advantage.
- Han Shi is ranked No. 231, Chengyiyi Yuan No. 442.
- Shi is 10-5 on hard courts in the recent window with 57.6% of games and 62.2% of sets won.
- Shi's recent wins include No. 117 Elvina Kalieva and No. 210 Ayla Aksu.
- Yuan's recent hard-court defeats came against players ranked 291, 362, 393 and 495.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonHan ShiEstimated chance68%

Games5 of 5 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Only a lopsided win clears this line, and Shi's recent wins against comparable opposition have been narrower.
- Yuan's two most recent defeats were by five games (7-12 and 8-13).
- Yuan has taken seven of her 14 recent hard-court matches to three sets.
- Only two of Shi's six visible recent matches produced margins of seven games or more.
- Shi's recent losses were by three and five games.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonChengyiyi Yuan +6.5Estimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Yuan keeps matches close and half her recent outings went the distance, so a five-game margin against her is not the base case.
- Seven of Yuan's 14 recent hard-court matches went to three sets.
- Yuan's most recent three-set match finished 15-15 in games (3-6 6-2 6-7 loss to No. 495 Ya-Yi Yang).
- Shi's recent losses came by margins of -3 and -5 games.
- Yuan's last two defeats were by five games each (7-12 and 8-13).
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonChengyiyi Yuan +4.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches run well above 20.5 games on average, with three-set finishes common for each.
- Shi's 15 recent hard-court matches average 23.1 total games.
- Yuan's 14 recent matches average 23.9 total games.
- Yuan went to three sets in 7 of 14 matches, Shi in 7 of 15.
- Shi's visible matches produced 19, 34, 14, 19, 27 and 14 total games.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 20.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets run longer than first sets for both players, clearing 8.5 games in the majority of their recent matches.
- Shi's second sets average 9.7 games.
- Yuan's second sets average 10.1 games.
- Yuan has had three second-set tiebreaks in 14 matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 8.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined first-set length is just below the 9.5 line, so a 6-3 or 6-2 opening set keeps this under.
- Shi's first sets average 9.7 games won-plus-lost.
- Yuan's first sets average 9.1 games.
- The combined first-set average of about 9.4 sits below the line.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Shi starts better than Yuan, who has lost more opening sets than she has won in this window.
- Shi has won the opening set in 9 of 15 recent hard-court matches.
- Yuan has won the opening set in 6 of 14.
- Shi's first sets average 5.6 games won to 4.1 lost; Yuan's average 4.1 to 5.0.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostHan ShiEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Shi's second-set record is noticeably stronger than Yuan's, which sits level at 7-7.
- Shi has won 10 of 15 second sets on hard courts.
- Yuan's second-set record is 7-7.
- Shi's second sets average 5.7 games won to 4.0 lost.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonHan ShiEstimated chance61%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Shi is the higher-ranked player and her wins more often come in straight sets than her recent losses go to three.
- Shi's 15-match window contains six 2-0 wins against four matches that reached a third set.
- Yuan's window contains four 0-2 losses and three 2-0 wins.
- Shi's 15-match window contains seven three-set matches overall.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance54%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
A majority of both players' recent matches finished without a tiebreak, so a clean match is the slightly more likely outcome.
- Six of Shi's 15 recent hard-court matches contained a tiebreak.
- Six of Yuan's 14 recent matches contained a tiebreak.
- Yuan's sets produced five tiebreaks across 14 matches.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance55%

Han Shi

10W 5L

7-6(6) 4-6 6-2#54Qinwen Zheng

6-7(5) 7-5 6-3#117Elvina Kalieva

6-0 6-2#761Tereza Mihalikova

6-3 6-4#225Berfu Cengiz

6-1 5-7 6-2#210Ayla Aksu

6-1 6-1—Alya Naz Altinel

5-7 6-3 6-4#437Unknown Player

7-6(4) 6-3#615Unknown Player

6-3 7-6(2)#459Tahlia Kokkinis

6-7(5) 6-2 6-2#437Unknown Player

6-1 6-1#248Fangran Tian

1-6 7-6(6) 6-1#187Darya Astakhova

4-6 6-4 6-1#263Haruka Kaji

6-4 6-4#288Rina Saigo

6-3 6-1#747Jiangxue Han

Chengyiyi Yuan

9W 6L

6-3 7-5#393Amelia Rajecki

6-2 6-3#890Nika Radisic

6-1 7-6(4)#291Daria Khomutsianskaya

6-3 2-6 7-6(4)#495Ya-Yi Yang

6-3 6-3#362Jia-Jing Lu

2-6 6-2 6-2#697Aruzhan Sagandikova

6-1 6-2#360Eunhye Lee

3-6 6-1 6-4#513Thasaporn Naklo

3-6 6-3 7-6(7)#752Yushan Shao

7-6(4) 7-6(5)—Yu Jun Lin

7-6(2) 7-5#808Sunam Jeong

6-2 6-7(4) 6-1—Ha Yoon Son

2-0 ret.#583Junhan Zhang

6-2 4-6 6-2—Yu Jun Lin

6-4 4-6 6-2#895Shihomi Li Xuan Leong

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

HSHan ShiShi

Last 15

8–1

9 core stats · 0 even

Chengyiyi YuanYuanCY

Han Shi carries the stronger recent form — Chengyiyi Yuan's route runs through serve.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In14/15 · 14/1564.1%+12.2pp51.9%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 14/1566.8%+3.1pp69.9%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 14/1546.1%+8.1pp38.0%

Aces / Match14/15 · 14/153.6+1.02.6

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 14/154.24.5 fewer8.7

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won14/15 · 14/1546.7%+1.3pp45.4%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 14/1547.7%+2.8pp44.9%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 14/1554.9%+3.3pp51.6%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won14/15 · 14/1552.8%+2.9pp49.9%

Serve · 4–1

64.1%1st Serve In14/15 · 14/15+12.2pp51.9%

66.8%1st Serve Won14/15 · 14/15+3.1pp69.9%

46.1%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 14/15+8.1pp38.0%

3.6Aces / Match14/15 · 14/15+1.02.6

4.2Double Faults / Match14/15 · 14/154.5 fewer8.7

Return · 1–0

46.7%Return Pts Won14/15 · 14/15+1.3pp45.4%

Pressure · 2–0

47.7%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 14/15+2.8pp44.9%

54.9%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 14/15+3.3pp51.6%

Points · 1–0

52.8%Total Pts Won14/15 · 14/15+2.9pp49.9%