TürkiyeWTA SamsunLiveFeatured

Fiona Crawley #253United StatesAlana Smith #425United States

Sun 4 Oct 2026, 11:004 Oct, 11:00LiveQ1Hard

8Probabilities1Priced1Edges73%Strongest

Strong leanLeanSlight lean

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageFiona Crawley · 172 places

Fiona Crawley

United States

American player, born 7 February 2002. Her WTA profile listed her at No. 253 in singles, while Tennis Abstract records a career-high No. 182 on 2 March 2026.

Current ranking: #253
Peak ranking: #182 · 2026
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: —
Hand: —
Height: —

Alana Smith

United States

Smith, 26, is a right-hander. Her singles career high is No. 291, reached in September 2025; official player data lists grass as her preferred surface.

Current ranking: #425
Peak ranking: #291 · 2025
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Grass
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Read first

Context last updated 3 Oct 2026, 21:03 · Europe/Bucharest

Crawley, ranked 234, meets Smith, ranked 488, in the opening round of Samsun qualifying, and the gap points to Crawley as the likelier winner — she is 9-5 in her last 14 completed hard-court matches and Smith is 8-5 in 13.

But Crawley to win is quoted at 1.22, a price that demands she wins four times in five, and that is not justified. Nothing on offer there.

Context

No availability concerns are reported for either player and both come off the same Turkish hard-court swing. The open questions are Crawley's missing serve and return data in her sample and how much her recent run of long matches has taken out of her.

Crawley's Adana results are the freshest read on her hard-court level, and the qualifying route stands out because she came from a set down to beat a former Roland Garros semi-finalist over nearly three hours. That scalp reads smaller than the name: Boisson was ranked No. 269 and working back from a six-month injury absence. The run ended in the round of 16 against Pridankina, who twice recovered a break in the deciding set, so Crawley arrives with match rhythm from a heavy week but also a recent example of a lead being clawed back.
- Crawley beat Loïs Boisson 2-6, 6-3, 7-5 in the second round of Adana Open qualifying, a match that lasted 2h45.
- Boisson was a 2025 Roland Garros semi-finalist who had slipped to world No. 269 and was repêchaged as a lucky loser into the Adana main draw.
- Crawley beat world No. 130 Noma Noha Akugue 6-3 6-1 in the main draw.
- Elena Pridankina beat Crawley 7-5 2-6 6-4 after twice coming from a break down in the deciding set and saving 0-40 at 4-4.
ConfirmedSources checked 3 Oct 2026, 21:01 · Europe/Bucharest
Smith, world No. 488, has been playing hard-court tennis in Turkey through the summer and reaches Samsun with a straight-sets habit in her results.
Her results split sharply: when she is on top she finishes in two sets, and when she is beaten the match also tends to end quickly. That makes a three-set grind less likely than her 8-5 record alone might suggest, and it leaves her little room if the first set goes against her. The sample is 13 matches with a single three-setter, so it is a tendency rather than a rule.
- Smith's 13 completed hard-court matches from 29 June to 21 September 2026 produced scorelines of 2-0 in eight matches, 0-2 in four and 1-2 in one.
- The sample counts only completed, non-retired matches of best-of-three format.
Crawley, world No. 234, has played most of her recent tennis on hard courts in Turkey, and the second set has been the most productive part of those matches.
Her first sets are close — 8-6 with 5.0 games won to 4.7 lost on average — while the second set has been her strongest phase. If the opener is tight, that second-set record suggests the match can turn her way rather than stay level. The sample is 14 matches and one retired match is excluded, so this is a small-sample read rather than a stable rate.
- Crawley's 14 completed hard-court matches from 5 August to 30 September 2026 include a 10-4 record in second sets, with 5.43 games won and 3.64 lost on average per second set.
- First sets in the same 14-match sample were 8-6, with 5.0 games won and 4.71 lost on average.
- One retired match is excluded from the sample.
Samsun is a new stop on the WTA 125 calendar and the third Turkish event in a row after Ankara and Adana, so both players arrive at a venue with no prior edition to draw on. The draw is deeper than the usual 125 field, with six top-100 players and a former Grand Slam champion entered, which raises the standard required to progress and makes early exits more likely for anyone outside the seedings. For a fixture like this one, that means recent hard-court form in Turkey is a better guide than anything specific to Samsun.
- The Samsun Open WTA 125 is scheduled for 4-11 October 2026 in Samsun, with entrants drawn from 25 countries.
- The announced field includes six top-100 players and former US Open champion Bianca Andreescu.
- The event directly follows the WTA 125 Ankara Open (20-27 September) and the Adana Open (26 September-4 October) in the same country.
ConfirmedSources checked 3 Oct 2026, 21:01 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerUncertainty band: Lean

Fiona Crawley

1.22fair 1.59

BetBugs 63% · Market 82%

−19.0ppshort

Crawley is ranked much higher, has recent wins over stronger opposition, and owns the better second-set record.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result1 outcome · top 63%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Crawley is ranked much higher, has recent wins over stronger opposition, and owns the better second-set record.
- Crawley is 9-5 on hard in the last 14 tracked matches, ranking 234 to Smith's 488
- Crawley won set two 10-4 in those matches and averages 21.9 total games
- Smith has won 50.8% of points and 51.6% of games on hard in 13 tracked matches
- Crawley beat world No. 130 Noma Noha Akugue 6-3 6-1 in Adana, while Smith lost her latest match to a player ranked 300
BetBugs · Match WinnerFiona CrawleyMarket price1.22Estimated chance63%

Games3 outcomes · top 55%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have tended to finish around nine games for both players.
- Crawley's second sets average 9.1 total games
- Smith's second sets average 9.0 total games
- Three set-two tiebreaks across the 27 combined tracked matches
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GamesUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' typical hard-court matches sit around 20 games, and Crawley's three-set matches pull the average up.
- Crawley's hard-court matches average 21.9 total games; Smith's average 19.7
- Crawley's set one averages 9.7 games and set two 9.1
- Four of Crawley's 14 tracked hard matches went to a deciding set
BetBugs · Total GamesOver 20.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First sets for both players typically run past nine games.
- Crawley's first sets average 9.7 total games; Smith's average 10.2
- Crawley's set one featured one tiebreak in 14 matches; Smith's two in 13
- Both players average about five first-set games won
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GamesOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets3 outcomes · top 73%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ten of Crawley's 14 tracked hard matches and nearly all of Smith's ended without a deciding set.
- 12 of Smith's 13 tracked hard matches finished in straight sets
- Seven of Crawley's 14 tracked hard matches were 2-0 wins and three were 0-2 losses
- Crawley's scorelines include only four three-set matches in 14
BetBugs · Total SetsUnder 2.5Estimated chance73%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The second set is Crawley's strongest phase, and Smith has faded in recent completed matches.
- Crawley won set two 10-4 across 14 hard matches; Smith 8-5 across 13
- Crawley averaged 5.4 games won and 3.6 lost in set two
- Smith lost set two in two of her last three completed matches
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerFiona CrawleyEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Crawley's ranking edge and recent wins over stronger opponents give her a slight first-set lean.
- Crawley won set one 8-6 in 14 tracked hard matches
- Crawley averaged 5.0 games won and 4.7 lost in set one
- Smith won set one 9-4 in 13 tracked hard matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerFiona CrawleyEstimated chance57%

Match stats1 outcome · top 72%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most completed matches for both players ended without a tiebreak.
- Three of Smith's 13 tracked hard matches featured a tiebreak
- Four of Crawley's 14 tracked hard matches featured a tiebreak
- Only three set-two tiebreaks appeared across 27 combined tracked matches
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchNoEstimated chance72%

Fiona Crawley

10W 5L

7-5 2-6 6-4#196Elena Pridankina

6-3 6-1#130Noma Akugue Noha

2-6 6-3 7-5#274Lois Boisson

4-6 6-3 6-3#812Adelina Lachinova

6-1 7-6(4)#202Carole Monnet

4-6 6-2 7-6(3)#170Anna Siskova

6-3 2-0 ret.#328Manon Leonard

6-4 6-1#195Julia Avdeeva

7-6(4) 6-3#347Naiktha Bains

6-2 6-1#354Sahaja Yamalapalli

6-4 6-3#99Julia Grabher

6-4 6-3#564Ekaterina Ovcharenko

7-5 6-3#98Simona Waltert

6-4 6-4#110Anastasia Zakharova

6-1 7-6(2)#318Lizette Cabrera

Alana Smith

9W 6L

6-3 6-3#300Weronika Falkowska

6-3 6-2—Duru Arslan

7-5 6-0#141Susan Bandecchi

7-6(6) 6-3#195Julia Avdeeva

7-5 6-2—Katarina Kujovic

6-4 7-5#210Ayla Aksu

7-5 6-2#512Yuno Kitahara

6-1 6-4#135Yue Yuan

7-6(5) 6-1—Daria Gorska

4-6 6-4 6-0#87Daria Kasatkina

6-4 7-6(5)#283Lea Ma

6-4 6-4#336Kylie Collins

6-2 7-5—Sydney Jara

6-2 6-2#373Sofia Johnson

6-2 6-3#859Anna Frey

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

FCFiona CrawleyCrawley

Last 15

3–5

9 core stats · 1 even

Alana SmithSmithAS

Alana Smith carries the stronger recent form — Fiona Crawley's route runs through return.

Serve · 0–5

1st Serve In56.2%+1.2pp57.4%

1st Serve Won60.5%+8.1pp68.6%

2nd Serve Won46.0%+4.1pp50.1%

Aces / Match0.9+1.82.7

Double Faults / Match3.30.7 fewer2.6

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won51.5%+9.7pp41.8%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted46.1%+1.4pp44.7%

Break Pts Saved53.6%—54.1%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won52.8%+1.8pp51.0%

Serve · 0–5

56.2%1st Serve In+1.2pp57.4%

60.5%1st Serve Won+8.1pp68.6%

46.0%2nd Serve Won+4.1pp50.1%

0.9Aces / Match+1.82.7

3.3Double Faults / Match0.7 fewer2.6

Return · 1–0

51.5%Return Pts Won+9.7pp41.8%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

46.1%Break Pts Converted+1.4pp44.7%

53.6%Break Pts Saved—54.1%

Points · 1–0

52.8%Total Pts Won+1.8pp51.0%