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Predictions graded

Alex Marti Pujolras #524Spain1Filippo Moroni #864Italy2

Sets 6-7 · 7-6 · 1-6Sun 4 Oct 2026, 10:58 Predictions gradedQ1Clay

Predictions4–833%

Edges1–325%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAlex Marti Pujolras · 340 places

Alex Marti Pujolras

Spain

Spanish right-hander, born 10 February 1999. ITF lists clay as his preferred surface and a career-best ATP singles ranking of No. 318 in July 2025.

Current ranking: #524
Peak ranking: #318 · 2025
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Filippo Moroni

Italy

Italian right-hander ranked No. 864 for this match and competing in Bari qualifying. Public detail is thin beyond his ranking, playing hand and height.

Current ranking: #864
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Oct 2026, 15:17 · Europe/Bucharest

Marti Pujolras, ranked 497, has the deeper clay record against 864-ranked Moroni, who has taken four of five completed clay matches to a deciding set while Marti Pujolras lost his most recent clay outing.

Marti Pujolras is the likely winner. Three quoted prices carry something: 1.75 to win the match, 3.8 for a straight-sets win, 2.1 to take the second set, while the 1.6 first-set price asks too much.

Context

Marti Pujolras is 8-6 on clay across that 14-match window and won seven of his eight clay matches in straight sets.
The split matters because the opening set is where Moroni has struggled most, having won one of five clay first sets, while Marti Pujolras has been strongest in the second. Five tiebreaks across his 14 first sets show how tight his starts can be, so the second-set edge is the more consistent part of the pattern.
- Marti Pujolras won 8 of 14 clay first sets and 10 of 14 clay second sets (14 completed matches, 12 Jul-25 Sep 2026).
- His clay second sets averaged 5.29 games won to 3.86 lost; first sets averaged 5.36 to 5.07 with five tiebreaks.
- Seven of his eight clay wins were 2-0 and 10 of the 14 matches finished in straight sets.
Moroni is 1-4 on clay in a five-match sample that excludes two retirements, and no serve or return data is available for him.
The deciding-set habit is why a close game count is plausible even in defeat, as his 28 September loss showed. Five completed matches is a thin base for a stable rate, and the same caution applies to the 25.8-game average, so this reads as a tendency rather than a reliable pattern.
- Moroni's clay sample covers 5 completed matches from 23 Apr to 28 Sep 2026, with 2 retirements excluded.
- Scorelines in that sample: three 1-2 defeats, one 2-1 win and one 0-2 defeat, averaging 25.8 games per match.
- His opening sets in that sample: 1 won, 4 lost.
That 25 September defeat is Marti Pujolras's most recent completed clay match before this qualifying opener.
Two tiebreak sets separated him from Ignacio Parisca, ranked 659, which is a reminder that his clay wins have not all been comfortable. A single match does not undo the 14-match clay record, but it is the freshest evidence in the window and the opponent was ranked higher than Moroni.
- Marti Pujolras lost 6-7 6-1 6-7 to Ignacio Parisca (rank 659) on 25 Sep 2026 on clay.
- He won 18 games to 15 in the defeat, with two sets decided by tiebreaks.
- Three days earlier, on 22 September, he beat Nico Hipfl (735) 7-5 7-6.
Moroni, ranked 864, has been close on games even in defeat on clay, including in that 28 September loss.
Those two late-September results are why his clay matches have averaged 25.8 games across the five completed matches in the sample, and why a wide margin looks unlikely even if the ranking gap points to Marti Pujolras. It is a two-match snapshot rather than a trend.
- Moroni lost 6-7 6-1 3-6 to Fabrizio Andaloro (rank 523) on 28 Sep 2026 on clay, winning 15 games to 14.
- The previous day he beat Gianmarco Ferrari (rank 521) 4-6 6-3 6-1 on clay.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.75
The read
The higher-ranked player has the stronger and much larger clay sample, with better serve and game numbers.
- Marti Pujolras is 8-6 in 14 clay matches in the evidence window; Moroni is 1-4 on clay in 5.
- Marti Pujolras clay serve numbers: 61.9% first serves in, 67.9% won, 63.6% break points saved.
- Marti Pujolras has won 52.6% of clay games (164-148); Moroni has no game data supplied.
- Rankings: 497 vs 864.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAlex Marti PujolrasEstimated chance63%

Games3 of 6 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Even in defeat Moroni has kept game totals close, so a three-and-a-half game cushion covers most outcomes.
- Moroni lost his latest clay match 15-14 in games despite the defeat.
- His clay matches averaged 25.8 total games across five completed matches.
- Marti Pujolras clay games won 52.6%, a modest edge.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonFilippo Moroni +3.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' opening sets average more than ten games, which sits above the line.
- Marti Pujolras's clay first sets average 10.4 total games.
- Moroni's clay first sets average 10.2 total games.
- Five of Marti Pujolras's 14 clay first sets went to a tiebreak.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The larger, more reliable sample points to straight-set matches that keep the total below the line.
- Marti Pujolras's 14 clay matches averaged 22.3 games.
- Ten of his 14 clay matches finished in straight sets.
- Moroni's clay sample is only five matches.
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 24.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The small game differential between these players makes a two-and-a-half game cushion the more likely side.
- Moroni's clay matches averaged 25.8 games with three of five going the distance.
- Marti Pujolras's clay game edge is only +16 across 14 matches.
- Moroni won 16-10 in games in his one clay victory.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonFilippo Moroni +2.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Most Marti Pujolras wins carry at least a two-game cushion because he generally wins in straight sets.
- Marti Pujolras has won 63% of his clay matches in the supplied sample.
- Seven of his eight clay wins were straight sets, usually with a multi-game margin.
- Moroni's clay losses include a 3-6 0-6 defeat.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostAlex Marti Pujolras -1.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' second sets average below nine and a half games, favouring the shorter side.
- Marti Pujolras's clay second sets average 9.1 games.
- Moroni's clay second sets average 9.0 games.
- Moroni's second sets have produced no tiebreaks in five clay matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance53%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Marti Pujolras's second sets are his strongest phase and Moroni's second-set record is only narrowly positive.
- Marti Pujolras has won 10 of 14 clay second sets.
- Moroni has won 3 of 5 clay second sets.
- Marti Pujolras's clay set2 games average is 5.29 won to 3.86 lost.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonAlex Marti PujolrasEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Marti Pujolras starts sets evenly at worst, while Moroni has lost four of five opening sets on clay.
- Marti Pujolras has won 8 of 14 clay first sets.
- Moroni has won 1 of 5 clay first sets, losing four.
- Marti Pujolras's clay set1 games average is 5.36 won to 5.07 lost.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostAlex Marti PujolrasEstimated chance61%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
If Marti Pujolras wins as expected, his recent clay record shows he usually does it in straight sets.
- Ten of Marti Pujolras's 14 clay matches ended in straight sets.
- Seven of his eight clay wins were 2-0.
- Moroni's only straight-set clay match was a 0-2 loss.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance54%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Most completed clay matches for both players finished without a tiebreak.
- Eight of Marti Pujolras's 14 clay matches had no tiebreak.
- Four of Moroni's five clay matches had no tiebreak.
- Ten of Marti Pujolras's 14 clay matches ended in straight sets.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance60%

Alex Marti Pujolras

8W 7L

7-6(6) 1-6 7-6(5)#659Ignacio Parisca

7-5 7-6(5)#735Nico Hipfl

6-4 6-3#279Stefano Napolitano

6-1 6-1#557Dimitris Sakellaridis

7-6(7) 7-6(8)#558Maximo Zeitune

6-3 6-0#308Oriol Roca Batalla

6-0 6-1—Oleg Covian Roca de Togores

6-1 3-6 6-1#361Dimitar Kuzmanov

7-6(2) 6-3#515Gerard Campana Lee

7-6(1) 6-4#609Lorenzo Bocchi

7-6(5) 5-7 6-4#897Maximilian Neuchrist

6-4 4-6 6-2#557Dimitris Sakellaridis

6-4 6-0#455Dusan Obradovic

6-3 6-4#300Oliver Crawford

6-4 6-4#780Abel Forger

Filippo Moroni

6W 9L

7-6(3) 1-6 6-3#523Fabrizio Andaloro

4-6 6-3 6-1#521Gianmarco Ferrari

6-4 6-2#546Menelaos Efstathiou

6-0 2-6 6-1—Filippo Mazzola

7-6(3) 6-1#459Emile Hudd

6-3 4-6 6-3#1466Pasquale De Giorgio

6-3 7-5#854Pawel Juszczak

6-3 6-3#589Daniel De Jonge

6-3 6-3—Jeremy Gschwendtner

6-2 3-0 ret.—Andreas Timini

6-1 1-0 ret.#339Tiago Pereira

3-6 6-4 7-5—Ivan Dreycopp

7-6(3) 6-3#523Fabrizio Andaloro

3-6 6-3 6-1—Lorenzo Ferri

6-4 2-6 6-4#267Matteo Martineau

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

APAlex Marti PujolrasPujolras

Last 15

4–4

9 core stats · 1 even

Filippo MoroniMoroniFM

Dead-even recent form — the edges are in serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In62.3%+3.0pp65.3%

1st Serve Won67.8%+5.2pp62.6%

2nd Serve Won45.0%+3.3pp41.7%

Aces / Match3.3+2.01.3

Double Faults / Match6.33.3 fewer3.0

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won41.2%+4.0pp45.2%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted49.5%+1.3pp50.8%

Break Pts Saved62.1%+11.3pp50.8%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won50.5%—50.2%

Serve · 3–2

62.3%1st Serve In+3.0pp65.3%

67.8%1st Serve Won+5.2pp62.6%

45.0%2nd Serve Won+3.3pp41.7%

3.3Aces / Match+2.01.3

6.3Double Faults / Match3.3 fewer3.0

Return · 0–1

41.2%Return Pts Won+4.0pp45.2%

Pressure · 1–1

49.5%Break Pts Converted+1.3pp50.8%

62.1%Break Pts Saved+11.3pp50.8%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

50.5%Total Pts Won—50.2%

Alex Marti Pujolras

Filippo Moroni

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Alex Marti Pujolras

Alex Marti Pujolras

Alex Marti Pujolras 2-0

Alex Marti Pujolras

Result0 of 1 landed

Games3 of 6 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Alex Marti Pujolras

Filippo Moroni

Stat Battle