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Predictions graded

Alex De Minaur #7Australia2Andrey Rublev #18Russia1

Sets 1-6 · 6-2 · 6-3Sun 4 Oct 2026, 07:10 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalHard

Predictions3–633%

Edges3–350%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAlex De Minaur · 11 places

Alex De Minaur

Australia

Reached a career-high No. 5 in July 2026. He was listed at No. 7 during US Open preparation in August. ITF lists grass as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #7
Peak ranking: #5 · 2026
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Grass
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Andrey Rublev

Russia

Reached a career-high No. 5 on 13 September 2021. ITF lists clay and hard as his preferred surfaces.

Current ranking: #18
Peak ranking: #5 · 2021
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: Clay, Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 3 Oct 2026, 15:32 · Europe/Bucharest

De Minaur's Beijing record and return game meet Rublev's serve in a quarter-final that has gone the distance before.

De Minaur is the slightly more likely winner, but 1.8 for him to win, and 1.75 for him to take the opening set or the second set, ask more than his form supports. The quotes that hold up: over 24.5 games at 2.2, a deciding set at 2.3, and Rublev to win 2-1 at 4.5.

Context

De Minaur trailed by a set and then by a break in the deciding set before closing out a 3-6, 7-6(5), 7-5 win in 2 hours 47 minutes, so the scoreline understates how close he came to going out in the round of 16. That match is the longest either player has spent on court in Beijing, and it sits immediately before this quarter-final. Limitation: the result records only the score, and nothing reported afterwards points to a physical problem, so the extra time is a workload note rather than a confirmed fitness concern.
- De Minaur won 3-6, 7-6(5), 7-5 in 2 hours 47 minutes.
- He trailed by a set and by a break in the final set before closing out the match.
- The win put him into the last eight of the China Open on hard court.
ConfirmedSources checked 3 Oct 2026, 15:30 · Europe/BucharestChina Open match pageen.tennistemple.com · 3 Oct 2026
De Minaur's 167 minutes against Halys were 47 more than Rublev spent beating Safiullin, and Rublev's 19 aces in that match against De Minaur's 10 indicate shorter service games. The gap in court time matters because both men play again the following day, and the aces point to how few free points De Minaur's serve produced by comparison. Limitation: court time and ace counts are single-match readings and say nothing about how either player has recovered since.
- De Minaur's 167 minutes on court were 47 more than Rublev's.
- Rublev hit 19 aces in his previous round against De Minaur's 10.
- Both men won three-set matches in the round of 16.
ConfirmedSources checked 3 Oct 2026, 15:30 · Europe/BucharestChina Open match pageen.tennistemple.com · 3 Oct 2026
These two arrive at the same stage with opposite histories at this event: six Beijing appearances have never carried Rublev past the quarter-final, while De Minaur has turned both of his visits into semi-final runs. The contrast is the clearest available evidence about how each has handled these hard courts, and it places the quarter-final at the exact point where Rublev's record has repeatedly ended. Limitation: older Beijing results say little about current form because fields and player levels change season to season, and the two have never faced each other here.
- Rublev has appeared six times in Beijing without reaching a semi-final.
- De Minaur has reached the semi-finals in both of his previous Beijing appearances.
- This is the first time the two have met at this event.
ConfirmedSources checked 3 Oct 2026, 15:30 · Europe/BucharestChina Open match pageen.tennistemple.com · 3 Oct 2026
Rublev's serve is the shot De Minaur's return game has to solve if this quarter-final is to stay on his terms.
De Minaur's return is the counterweight, and Rublev's second serve is the softer target: he won only 52% of second-serve points in the same 15-match window. If Rublev's first-serve rate holds up, break chances will be scarce; if it drops, the match swings towards the returner.
- Rublev has won 78.3% of first-serve points (602 of 769) across his last 15 matches, tracked to 3 October 2026.
- He has averaged 9.8 aces per match (147 in 15 matches) and put 61.8% of first serves in play.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.80
The read
De Minaur's return game and Beijing record make him the marginally more likely winner in a close match.
- De Minaur is 11-4 in his last 15 matches and has won 53.3% of games on hard.
- Rublev is 7-4 on hard in this window and lost the Hangzhou final to Medvedev.
- De Minaur reached the Beijing semi-finals on both of his previous visits.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAlex De MinaurEstimated chance52%

Games1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Rublev's recent matches have almost all finished with him level or ahead on games.
- Rublev's game margins in his last six hard matches were +3, +1, -2, +6, +5 and +6.
- Only one of those six produced a negative margin.
- De Minaur's margins in the same window ranged from +9 to -8.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonAndrey Rublev +2.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Neither player has been able to break away early in recent matches, so long opening sets are common.
- De Minaur's first sets average 9.9 games on this surface.
- Rublev's first sets average 11 games.
- De Minaur has played seven tie-breaks in 12 hard matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Close serving numbers and a tight head-to-head make a long match the more likely outcome.
- Rublev averages 25.4 total games in hard-court best-of-three matches.
- De Minaur averages 23.5 total games in the same format.
- Both men average over two hours on court per match.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 24.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets between two solid servers tend to stretch past nine games.
- De Minaur's second sets average 10.2 games.
- Rublev's second sets average 9.7 games.
- De Minaur has played four second-set tie-breaks in 12 hard matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.75
The read
De Minaur has started matches more reliably in this window and can pressure Rublev's second serve early.
- De Minaur has won the first set in 8 of 12 hard-court best-of-three matches.
- Rublev has won the opening set in 5 of 9.
- De Minaur averages 5.3 games in first sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostAlex De MinaurEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.75
The read
De Minaur's second-set record on hard is the stronger of the two.
- De Minaur has won the second set in 8 of 12 hard-court matches in this format.
- Rublev has won the second set in 5 of 9.
- De Minaur averages 5.7 games in second sets.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonAlex De MinaurEstimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Rublev's serve alone puts the pair close to the line, and De Minaur adds a steady handful.
- Rublev averages 10.8 aces per match on hard.
- De Minaur averages 5.1 aces per match.
- Rublev hit 19 aces in the round of 16.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 14.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players hold serve well enough that at least one set is likely to reach six-all.
- Seven of De Minaur's last 12 hard-court matches included a tie-break.
- Five of Rublev's nine hard matches included a tie-break.
- Their 2025 Doha meeting was settled by a final-set tie-break.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The pair's combined average sits under the line, helped by Rublev's low double-fault rate.
- Rublev averages 2.9 double faults per match on this surface.
- De Minaur averages 3.5 double faults per match.
- Their combined average is roughly 6.4.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 6.5Estimated chance54%

Prediction history

Alex De Minaur: 10/15 recent winner projections matched

10 of 15 comparable winner projections favouring Alex De Minaur matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Alex De Minaur15 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

31 Jul·ATP Washington

#6Alex De Minaur0-2#33Brandon Nakashima

BetBugsAlex De Minaur to win·62%

Missed

31 Jul 2026

ATP Washington

#6Alex De Minaur0-2#33Brandon Nakashima

Alex De Minaur to win

62%probability

Brandon Nakashima won

Missed

30 Jul·ATP Washington

#6Alex De Minaur2-0#612Cruz Hewitt

BetBugsAlex De Minaur to win·92%

Matched

30 Jul 2026

ATP Washington

#6Alex De Minaur2-0#612Cruz Hewitt

Alex De Minaur to win

92%probability

Alex De Minaur won

Matched

29 Jul·ATP Washington

#5Alex De Minaur2-1#51Stefanos Tsitsipas

BetBugsAlex De Minaur to win·58%

Matched

29 Jul 2026

ATP Washington

#5Alex De Minaur2-1#51Stefanos Tsitsipas

Alex De Minaur to win

58%probability

Alex De Minaur won

Matched

6 Jul·ATP Wimbledon

#6Alex De Minaur0-3#10Flavio Cobolli

BetBugsAlex De Minaur to win·62%

Missed

6 Jul 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#6Alex De Minaur0-3#10Flavio Cobolli

Alex De Minaur to win

62%probability

Flavio Cobolli won

Missed

4 Jul·ATP Wimbledon

#6Alex De Minaur3-1#66Zachary Svajda

BetBugsAlex De Minaur to win·85%

Matched

4 Jul 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#6Alex De Minaur3-1#66Zachary Svajda

Alex De Minaur to win

85%probability

Alex De Minaur won

Matched

Head-to-Head

4-4 (8 meetings)

L6-1 3-6 7-6(8)Alex De Minaur#10vAndrey Rublev#24Feb 20, 2025

W7-6(5) 4-6 6-3Alex De Minaur#10vAndrey Rublev#24Feb 16, 2024

L6-4 6-7(5) 6-7(4) 6-3 6-0Alex De Minaur#10vAndrey Rublev#24Jan 21, 2024

L4-6 6-3 6-1Alex De Minaur#10vAndrey Rublev#24Nov 3, 2023

W6-4 6-4Alex De Minaur#10vAndrey Rublev#24Feb 15, 2023

L2-6 6-1 6-4Alex De Minaur#10vAndrey Rublev#24Apr 13, 2022

W4-1 3-4(5) 4-1 4-2Alex De Minaur#10vAndrey Rublev#24Nov 7, 2018

W5-7 7-6(6) 6-4Alex De Minaur#10vAndrey Rublev#24Aug 4, 2018

8 total meetings

Previous match context available

Alex De Minaur

11W 4L

3-6 7-6(5) 7-5#50Quentin Halys

7-6(4) 6-2#45Mariano Navone

2-6 7-6(5) 11-9#2Alexander Zverev

6-3 6-3#71Kamil Majchrzak

6-3 6-0#234Maks Kasnikowski

6-4 7-5 6-2#40Botic Van De Zandschulp

6-2 6-2 6-4#164Andrea Guerrieri

6-3 6-4#9Arthur Fils

7-5 7-6(3)#36Arthur Fery

1-6 6-3 7-6(4)#50Quentin Halys

5-7 7-6(5) 6-1#39Cameron Norrie

6-2 7-6(6)#63James Duckworth

7-6(5) 6-4#17Brandon Nakashima

6-2 6-3#322Cruz Hewitt

6-4 3-6 6-3#44Stefanos Tsitsipas

Andrey Rublev

10W 5L

6-2 3-6 6-4#84Roman Safiullin

6-4 5-7 7-6(6)#55Tallon Griekspoor

7-5 6-4#6Daniil Medvedev

7-6(0) 6-1#86Kyrian Jacquet

6-7(6) 7-6(4) 6-1#87Hugo Gaston

6-3 6-3#82Rinky Hijikata

6-7(3) 6-2 6-4 6-4#42Daniel Merida Aguilar

6-7(5) 6-7(0) 6-0 6-2 7-6(5)#106Otto Virtanen

6-3 6-4#49Nuno Borges

7-6(5) 6-1#66Pablo Carreno-Busta

7-5 4-6 7-6(5)#250Juncheng Shang

3-6 6-3 6-4#43Luca Van Assche

6-1 6-1#204Timofey Skatov

6-4 6-3#19Luciano Darderi

6-4 4-6 6-4#31Alejandro Tabilo

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

AMAlex De MinaurMinaur

Last 15

4–5

9 core stats · 0 even

Andrey RublevRublevAR

Andrey Rublev carries the stronger recent form — Alex De Minaur's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In13/15 · 15/1555.7%+6.1pp61.8%

1st Serve Won13/15 · 15/1569.6%+8.7pp78.3%

2nd Serve Won13/15 · 15/1556.0%+4.0pp52.0%

Aces / Match13/15 · 15/155.1+4.79.8

Double Faults / Match13/15 · 15/153.50.8 fewer2.7

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won13/15 · 15/1538.9%+1.2pp37.7%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted13/15 · 15/1537.9%+7.6pp30.3%

Break Pts Saved13/15 · 15/1565.6%+4.7pp60.9%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won13/15 · 15/1550.8%+1.5pp52.3%

Serve · 1–4

55.7%1st Serve In13/15 · 15/15+6.1pp61.8%

69.6%1st Serve Won13/15 · 15/15+8.7pp78.3%

56.0%2nd Serve Won13/15 · 15/15+4.0pp52.0%

5.1Aces / Match13/15 · 15/15+4.79.8

3.5Double Faults / Match13/15 · 15/150.8 fewer2.7

Return · 1–0

38.9%Return Pts Won13/15 · 15/15+1.2pp37.7%

Pressure · 2–0

37.9%Break Pts Converted13/15 · 15/15+7.6pp30.3%

65.6%Break Pts Saved13/15 · 15/15+4.7pp60.9%

Points · 0–1

50.8%Total Pts Won13/15 · 15/15+1.5pp52.3%

Alex De Minaur #7Australia2Andrey Rublev #18Russia1

Player Profiles

Alex De Minaur

Andrey Rublev

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 24.5

Over 2.5

Andrey Rublev 2-1

Alex De Minaur

Alex De Minaur

Alex De Minaur

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 4 landed

Sets1 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Alex De Minaur: 10/15 recent winner projections matched

Head-to-Head

Alex De Minaur

Andrey Rublev

Stat Battle