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Predictions graded

Antonia Ruzic #56Croatia1Leolia Jeanjean #119France2

Sets 6-4 · 1-6 · 3-6Sat 3 Oct 2026, 15:07 Predictions gradedSemi-FinalHard

Predictions6–460%

Edges4–180%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAntonia Ruzic · 63 places

Antonia Ruzic

Croatia

Ružić describes herself as a hard-hitting, aggressive baseliner who prefers fast courts. She reached career-high No. 50 in July 2026.

Current ranking: #56
Peak ranking: #50 · 2026
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Fast courts
Hand: Right handed
Height: 166 cm

Leolia Jeanjean

France

French right-hander born in August 1995. Her career-high singles ranking was No. 91 in August 2025, and the ITF player profile lists clay as her preferred surface; no current, reliably sourced injury or withdrawal signal was returned in the specified searches.

Current ranking: #119
Peak ranking: #91 · 2025
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 168 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 3 Oct 2026, 06:08 · Europe/Bucharest

Ruzic has dropped one set in three wins to reach the Adana semifinal; Jeanjean has needed three sets every round and owns the better hard-court record.

Ruzic is narrowly the likelier winner, but a deciding set at 2.3 and Jeanjean to win 2-1 at 4.75 are the strongest prices, with Jeanjean to win with or without a half-game handicap at 2.2 narrower. Ruzic at 1.65 offers nothing.

Context

Ruzic has won three matches in Adana while dropping only one set, and the quarterfinal required a comeback after she lost the opening set to Kostovic. That sequence is her first sustained run of wins since she lost six of eight matches between late June and the end of August, which matters when weighing her No. 83 ranking against the opposition in this fixture. All three opponents in the run were ranked outside the top 100, so this week has not yet tested her against a player at Jeanjean's level.
- Ruzic has won three matches at the Adana Open while dropping a single set.
- Her earlier Adana wins were 6-4 6-3 over Vendula Valdmannova and 6-3 6-4 over Julia Riera.
- She conceded the first set to Kostovic before taking the quarterfinal in three sets.
ConfirmedSources checked 3 Oct 2026, 06:05 · Europe/BucharestTennis Majorswww.tennismajors.com · 2 Oct 2026
Jeanjean has needed three sets in all three matches in Adana and spent nine sets on court, including a quarterfinal in which she took the first set, lost the second 1-6 and then won the decider 6-1. That is a heavier workload than Ruzic has carried into the semifinal, and it is the clearest physical difference between the two this week. The pattern also shows Jeanjean can close out long matches from different positions, though the accumulated court time is a genuine counterweight to her chances here.
- Jeanjean has won all three of her Adana Open matches in three sets.
- Her earlier wins were 4-6 6-3 6-2 over Suzan Lamens and 3-6 7-5 6-4 over Melisa Ercan.
- She lost the second set of the quarterfinal 1-6 before winning the decider 6-1.
ConfirmedSources checked 3 Oct 2026, 06:05 · Europe/BucharestTennis Majorswww.tennismajors.com · 2 Oct 2026
Jeanjean's serving numbers cut both ways: a low first-serve rate but strong rewards when it lands.
In a semifinal where break points are likely to decide the outcome, a serve that misses roughly 46% of first attempts and gives away 5.7 double faults a match hands Ruzic return chances. The other side of the same numbers is that Jeanjean wins 64.1% of points behind the first serve, so the free points do come when the ball goes in.
- Jeanjean has landed 54.3% of first serves (647 of 1192) over her last 15 tracked matches.
- She has averaged 5.7 double faults per match (86 in 15 matches).
- She has won 64.1% of points behind the first serve (415 of 647).
This semifinal decides which of the two plays for the Adana Open title. Ruzic, at No. 83, is the higher-ranked entrant and has been competing on the main hard-court swing, while Jeanjean, at No. 109, sits 26 places below her. The event is a WTA 125, a tier below the tour-level hard-court tournaments both have played this season, so the fixture is a lower-profile opportunity to bank ranking points.
- The Adana Open semifinal between Ruzic and Jeanjean is set for 3 October 2026 on hard court.
ConfirmedSources checked 3 Oct 2026, 06:05 · Europe/BucharestTennis Majorswww.tennismajors.com · 2 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ruzic has the higher ranking and has won her Adana matches more efficiently, which may leave her fresher.
- Ruzic is ranked 83, Jeanjean 109.
- Ruzic won two of three Adana matches in straight sets.
- On hard court this year Ruzic is 4-5; Jeanjean is 9-5.
- Jeanjean has played three three-setters at Adana; Ruzic has played one.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAntonia RuzicEstimated chance52%

Games2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' first sets hover around this line, making over slightly more likely.
- Ruzic's first sets on hard average 9.9 total games.
- Jeanjean's first sets on hard average 9.6 total games.
- Ruzic has had one first-set tiebreak in nine hard matches.
- Jeanjean has had two first-set tiebreaks in fourteen hard matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ruzic covers this line whenever she wins, and she is a slight match favorite.
- Ruzic's recent hard-court wins came by +4, +5, +5 games.
- Ruzic's recent hard-court losses were by -7, -5, -6 games.
- Jeanjean's recent wins were by +2, +1, +5, +6, +1 games.
- Jeanjean's recent loss was by -6 games.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostAntonia Ruzic +0.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ruzic's shorter second sets and Jeanjean's occasional quick sets make under slightly more likely.
- Ruzic's second sets on hard average 9.1 total games.
- Jeanjean's second sets on hard average 9.6 total games.
- Jeanjean has had two second-set tiebreaks in fourteen hard matches.
- Ruzic has had no second-set tiebreaks in nine hard matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 1.65
The read
Ruzic's straight-set wins have been quick, and she is a slight favorite, which could keep the total just under the line.
- Ruzic's Adana matches had totals of 28, 19 and 19 games.
- Jeanjean's Adana matches had totals of 24, 31 and 27 games.
- Ruzic's hard-court matches average 20.9 total games.
- Jeanjean's hard-court matches average 24.1 total games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 22.5Estimated chance51%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.30
The read
Jeanjean's recent matches almost always go the distance, making a three-setter likely.
- Jeanjean has gone to three sets in 8 of 14 hard-court matches.
- Ruzic has gone to three sets in 2 of 9 hard-court matches.
- All three of Jeanjean's Adana wins were three-setters.
- Ruzic's last Adana match was a three-setter.
BetBugs · Total SetswonOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Jeanjean's larger sample of first sets is slightly stronger.
- Jeanjean has won 5 of 14 first sets on hard court.
- Ruzic has won 2 of 9 first sets on hard court.
- Jeanjean lost the opening set in two of three Adana matches.
- Ruzic won the opening set in two of three Adana matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostLeolia JeanjeanEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Jeanjean's overall second-set record is stronger.
- Jeanjean has won 9 of 14 second sets on hard court.
- Ruzic has won 4 of 9 second sets on hard court.
- Jeanjean won the second set in two of her three Adana wins.
- Ruzic won the second set in all three Adana wins.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonLeolia JeanjeanEstimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most sets are decided by breaks, so a match without a tiebreak is more likely.
- Ruzic has had one tiebreak in nine hard-court matches.
- Jeanjean has had four tiebreaks in fourteen hard-court matches.
- Ruzic's set1 tiebreak count is 1 in 9; set2 is 0 in 9.
- Jeanjean's set1 tiebreak count is 2 in 14; set2 is 2 in 14.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ruzic's low ace rate and Jeanjean's moderate rate make under 3.5 more likely.
- Ruzic averages 0.4 aces per match on hard court.
- Jeanjean averages 2.5 aces per match on hard court.
- Combined hard-court ace average is about 2.9 per match.
- Jeanjean has 35 aces in 14 hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 3.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players double-fault regularly, and their combined average is above this line.
- Ruzic averages 3.1 double faults per match on hard court.
- Jeanjean averages 5.9 double faults per match on hard court.
- Combined hard-court double-fault average is about 9.0 per match.
- Jeanjean has 82 double faults in 14 hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance55%

Previous match context available

Antonia Ruzic

7W 8L

4-6 6-4 6-2#139Teodora Kostovic

6-3 6-4#147Julia Riera

6-4 6-3#154Vendula Valdmannova

7-5 6-1#30Ann Li

6-4 6-3#34Nikola Bartunkova

6-2 7-5#48Magdalena Frech

6-1 6-2#23Madison Keys

4-6 6-1 6-3#274Lois Boisson

7-6(2) 6-4#126Dominika Salkova

6-2 6-0#32Jelena Ostapenko

6-3 3-6 6-3#124Darja Semenistaja

7-6(6) 4-6 7-6(4)#81Petra Marcinko

6-3 6-0#72Caty McNally

6-3 6-7(6) 7-5#91Taylah Preston

6-3 6-4#247Kaja Juvan

Leolia Jeanjean

9W 6L

6-4 1-6 6-1#125Lucrezia Stefanini

3-6 7-5 6-4#655Melisa Ercan

4-6 6-3 6-2#215Suzan Lamens

6-2 6-4#97Claire Liu

6-1 7-6(4)#148Carol Young Suh Lee

7-6(5) 3-6 6-3#265Julieta Pareja

6-2 7-6(3)#305Carolina Meligeni Alves

6-4 2-6 6-3#25Anastasia Potapova

7-6(6) 6-2#258Arantxa Rus

6-4 4-6 6-2#76Kamilla Rakhimova

6-2 6-4#125Lucrezia Stefanini

3-6 6-3 6-2#120Himeno Sakatsume

7-5 6-3#48Magdalena Frech

2-6 6-2 6-3#199Lin Zhu

7-5 7-6(3)#52Mayar Sherif

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

ARAntonia RuzicRuzic

Last 15

2–5

9 core stats · 2 even

Leolia JeanjeanJeanjeanLJ

Leolia Jeanjean carries the stronger recent form — Antonia Ruzic's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In69.3%+15.0pp54.3%

1st Serve Won57.9%+6.2pp64.1%

2nd Serve Won43.1%+2.4pp45.5%

Aces / Match1.0+1.52.5

Double Faults / Match3.22.5 fewer5.7

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won44.4%—44.8%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted44.3%—44.1%

Break Pts Saved50.0%+4.2pp54.2%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won48.9%+1.3pp50.2%

Serve · 2–3

69.3%1st Serve In+15.0pp54.3%

57.9%1st Serve Won+6.2pp64.1%

43.1%2nd Serve Won+2.4pp45.5%

1.0Aces / Match+1.52.5

3.2Double Faults / Match2.5 fewer5.7

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

44.4%Return Pts Won—44.8%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

44.3%Break Pts Converted—44.1%

50.0%Break Pts Saved+4.2pp54.2%

Points · 0–1

48.9%Total Pts Won+1.3pp50.2%

Antonia Ruzic #56Croatia1Leolia Jeanjean #119France2

Player Profiles

Antonia Ruzic

Leolia Jeanjean

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 2.5

Leolia Jeanjean

Leolia Jeanjean -0.5

Leolia Jeanjean 2-1

Under 22.5

BetBugs probabilities

Result0 of 1 landed

Games2 of 4 landed

Sets2 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Antonia Ruzic

Leolia Jeanjean

Stat Battle