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Predictions graded

Leolia Jeanjean #119France2Lucrezia Stefanini #147Italy1

Sets 6-4 · 1-6 · 6-1Fri 2 Oct 2026, 12:05 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalHard

Predictions6–460%

Edges1–233%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageLeolia Jeanjean · 28 places

Leolia Jeanjean

France

French right-hander born in August 1995. Her career-high singles ranking was No. 91 in August 2025, and the ITF player profile lists clay as her preferred surface; no current, reliably sourced injury or withdrawal signal was returned in the specified searches.

Current ranking: #119
Peak ranking: #91 · 2025
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 168 cm

Lucrezia Stefanini

Italy

Italian right-hander born in May 1998. Her career-high singles ranking was No. 99 in August 2023; no current, reliably sourced injury or comeback signal was returned in the specified searches.

Current ranking: #147
Peak ranking: #99 · 2023
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 164 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 1 Oct 2026, 03:38 · Europe/Bucharest

Two seeded players who have each gone three sets twice this week meet for a place in the semi-final.

Stefanini's 2-1 head-to-head lead and 7-7 first-set record against Jeanjean's 4-9 make her the likelier winner, but 1.8 asks more of her than that record justifies. The one price worth taking is 2.3 for the match to go to a deciding set.

Context

Six sets apiece across two matches means the workload is level and both have twice had to recover from losing the opening set in the same week. Neither arrives with a short, straightforward win behind them at this event, and both have already had to change something mid-match on these courts to stay in the tournament. The caution is that match length alone is not proof of fatigue, and the scorelines say as much about how competitive the early rounds were as about either player's condition.
- Jeanjean's two wins in Adana both went to three sets, including a comeback from a set down against Melisa Ercan .
- Stefanini's two wins in Adana both went to three sets, the second from a set down against Çağla Büyükakçay .
ConfirmedSources checked 1 Oct 2026, 03:36 · Europe/Bucharest
The latest meeting came on a hard court in August 2026 and lasted two sets, which gives Stefanini a recent reference point for this matchup and Jeanjean a specific problem to solve in her return games. Three meetings in total is a thin base and they span different seasons, so the record is not evidence of a settled pattern between two players whose games have each changed since the earlier encounters. What makes this relevant is recency and surface: the August result sits closer to this fixture than anything else in the series.
- The head-to-head stands at two wins for Stefanini and one for Jeanjean across three professional meetings.
- The most recent meeting, in Cincinnati in August 2026, finished 6-2 6-4 to Stefanini on hard court.
ConfirmedSources checked 1 Oct 2026, 03:36 · Europe/BucharestLeolia Jeanjean vs Lucrezia Stefanini head-to-headwww.tennisratio.com · 30 Sep 2026
Jeanjean's first sets have been the weakest phase of her hard-court sample, while her second sets have been her strongest.
If Jeanjean starts slowly again, the same window suggests she can still recover, since her second sets are 9-4 and she has twice come from a set down in Adana this week. Stefanini's own first-set record is only 7-7 across 14 hard-court matches, so neither player has owned the opening set.
- Jeanjean's 13 completed hard-court matches from 1 August to 30 September 2026 include a 4-9 record in first sets and a 9-4 record in second sets.
- Her opening sets average 4.23 games won and 5.38 lost; her second sets average 5.46 won and 4.38 lost.
- Those 13 matches include two first-set tiebreaks and two second-set tiebreaks.
Stefanini's matches have tended to finish inside two sets, in both directions, rather than stretching to a decider.
That straight-sets rate is the main argument against expecting a long match here, and it runs across her whole hard-court sample rather than one week. Both players have gone the distance twice in Adana, which is the counterweight, but Stefanini has often either won comfortably or lost without taking a set.
- Stefanini's 14 completed hard-court matches from 25 July to 30 September 2026 produced five 2-0 wins, four 2-1 wins and five 0-2 defeats.
- Her second sets average 8.93 total games with no tiebreaks, and her matches average 2.29 sets.
- One retired match is excluded from the 14-match set-by-set sample, so those totals cover completed matches only.
- She has played two tiebreak matches across the 14-match sample.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Set 1 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Lucrezia Stefanini

1.75fair 1.75

BetBugs 57% · Market 57.1%

−0.1ppshort

Stefanini has been the better front-runner in opening sets while Jeanjean has regularly conceded the first set.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Lucrezia Stefanini

1.80fair 1.85

BetBugs 54% · Market 55.6%

−1.6ppshort

Stefanini owns the recent hard-court meeting between them and has been the steadier starter, while Jeanjean has regularly dropped the first set.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Stefanini owns the recent hard-court meeting between them and has been the steadier starter, while Jeanjean has regularly dropped the first set.
- Stefanini leads the head-to-head 2-1, including a 6-2 6-4 hard-court win over Jeanjean in Cincinnati in August 2026
- Hard-court window: Stefanini 9-5 in 14 matches, Jeanjean 8-5 in 13
- Jeanjean has lost the opening set in 9 of her 13 hard-court matches
- Stefanini's serve statistics are not available, so her numbers cannot be compared with Jeanjean's 54.9% first serves in and 6 double faults per match
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostLucrezia StefaniniEstimated chance54%

Games4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Jeanjean's games are close to level on hard courts, so losing by two or more games is not the most likely outcome against a similarly ranked opponent.
- Jeanjean's hard-court game record is 161 won, 153 lost, a margin of +8 across 13 matches (about +0.6 per match)
- Jeanjean won 51.3% of hard-court games, so she is rarely beaten heavily on games
- Stefanini's games won and lost are not available for comparison
- Three of Jeanjean's five hard-court defeats in this window were 0-2 scorelines
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonLeolia Jeanjean +1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The two averages sit either side of the line, and both have been playing long matches in Adana this week.
- Jeanjean's hard-court matches average 24.2 total games across 13 matches
- Stefanini's hard-court matches average 21.0 total games across 14 matches
- Both players' two Adana wins this week went to three sets
- Jeanjean's average sets per match is 2.54, Stefanini's 2.29
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 22.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have tended to finish inside the standard game count, particularly for Stefanini, whose second sets have not reached a tiebreak.
- Stefanini's second sets average 8.93 total games
- Stefanini has zero second-set tiebreaks in 14 hard-court matches
- Jeanjean's second sets average 9.85 total games
- Stefanini's set-2 games split is 4.36 won and 4.57 lost
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The two opening-set averages sit just above the line, suggesting a typical first set lands marginally over nine and a half games.
- Jeanjean's opening sets average 9.62 total games across 13 matches
- Stefanini's opening sets average 9.79 total games across 14 matches
- Both players have two first-set tiebreaks in their hard-court samples
- Jeanjean's set-1 games split is 4.23 won and 5.38 lost
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.75
The read
Stefanini has been the better front-runner in opening sets while Jeanjean has regularly conceded the first set.
- Stefanini has won 7 of 14 opening sets on hard courts, Jeanjean only 4 of 13
- Stefanini's set-1 games average is 5.07 won against 4.71 lost
- Jeanjean has lost the first set in 9 of her 13 hard-court matches
- Stefanini won their most recent meeting 6-2 6-4, taking the opening set comfortably
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostLucrezia StefaniniEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have been Jeanjean's strongest phase across her hard-court sample while Stefanini has been slightly negative there.
- Jeanjean has won 9 of 13 second sets on hard courts
- Stefanini has won 7 of 14 second sets
- Stefanini's set-2 games average is 4.36 won against 4.57 lost
- Jeanjean's set-2 games average is 5.46 won against 4.38 lost
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostLeolia JeanjeanEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.30
The read
Both players have been extended to a deciding set repeatedly in Adana and their season-long set averages sit near or above three.
- Jeanjean's 13 hard-court matches average 2.54 sets
- Stefanini's 14 hard-court matches average 2.29 sets
- Both won both of their Adana matches in three sets this week
- Jeanjean's scorelines include five 2-1 wins and two 1-2 losses
BetBugs · Total SetswonOver 2.5Estimated chance53%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Neither player's recent hard-court matches have often reached a tiebreak, and most sets are being decided by a break.
- Six of the 27 combined hard-court matches in these samples contained a tiebreak
- Stefanini has no second-set tiebreaks in 14 hard-court matches
- Jeanjean's opening sets average 9.62 games, often ending before a tiebreak
- Stefanini's second sets average 8.93 games
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance68%

Previous match context available

Leolia Jeanjean

9W 6L

3-6 7-5 6-4#655Melisa Ercan 4-6 6-3 6-2#215Suzan Lamens

6-2 6-4#97Claire Liu

6-1 7-6(4)#148Carol Young Suh Lee

7-6(5) 3-6 6-3#265Julieta Pareja

6-2 7-6(3)#305Carolina Meligeni Alves

6-4 2-6 6-3#25Anastasia Potapova

7-6(6) 6-2#258Arantxa Rus

6-4 4-6 6-2#76Kamilla Rakhimova

6-2 6-4#125Lucrezia Stefanini

3-6 6-3 6-2#120Himeno Sakatsume

7-5 6-3#48Magdalena Frech

2-6 6-2 6-3#199Lin Zhu

7-5 7-6(3)#52Mayar Sherif

3-6 6-3 6-4#228Alice Tubello

Lucrezia Stefanini

10W 5L

6-7(5) 6-3 6-3#427Cagla Buyukakcay 3-6 6-4 6-2#272Elena Ruxandra Bertea

6-3 6-4#204Nadia Podoroska

6-4 6-1#20Jasmine Paolini

6-3 4-6 6-1#111Dayana Yastremska

6-4 6-3#265Julieta Pareja

6-2 6-3#208Madison Brengle

6-2 6-3#210Ayla Aksu

6-2 6-4#27Marie Bouzkova

5-3 ret.#71Elisabetta Cocciaretto

6-2 6-4#109Leolia Jeanjean

6-4 6-2#110Anastasia Zakharova

7-6(4) 6-3#66Maria Camila Osorio Serrano

7-5 1-6 6-2#107Sofia Kenin

6-4 6-2#175Yeon Woo Ku

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

LJLeolia JeanjeanJeanjean

Last 15

3–6

9 core stats · 0 even

Lucrezia StefaniniStefaniniLS

Lucrezia Stefanini carries the stronger recent form — Leolia Jeanjean's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In55.6%+16.2pp71.8%

1st Serve Won65.0%+9.6pp55.4%

2nd Serve Won46.2%+1.5pp47.7%

Aces / Match2.4+2.10.3

Double Faults / Match5.83.5 fewer2.3

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won44.3%+5.0pp49.3%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted44.9%+12.7pp57.6%

Break Pts Saved53.7%+4.1pp49.6%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won50.5%+0.8pp51.3%

Serve · 2–3

55.6%1st Serve In+16.2pp71.8%

65.0%1st Serve Won+9.6pp55.4%

46.2%2nd Serve Won+1.5pp47.7%

2.4Aces / Match+2.10.3

5.8Double Faults / Match3.5 fewer2.3

Return · 0–1

44.3%Return Pts Won+5.0pp49.3%

Pressure · 1–1

44.9%Break Pts Converted+12.7pp57.6%

53.7%Break Pts Saved+4.1pp49.6%

Points · 0–1

50.5%Total Pts Won+0.8pp51.3%

Leolia Jeanjean

Lucrezia Stefanini

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 2.5

Lucrezia Stefanini

Lucrezia Stefanini

Result0 of 1 landed

Games4 of 4 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Leolia Jeanjean

Lucrezia Stefanini

Stat Battle