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Predictions graded

Clement Tabur #160France2Thomas Faurel #325France0

Sets 6-1 · 6-4Wed 30 Sept 2026, 14:12 Predictions gradedSecond RoundI.hard

Predictions5–456%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageClement Tabur · 165 places

Clement Tabur

France

Reliable current profile detail beyond the supplied ranking and playing style was limited. Use structured recent-form and hard-court data as the main context.

Current ranking: #160
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 173 cm

Thomas Faurel

France

French right-hander, age 20. He reached a career-high No. 307 on 22 June 2026 and made his Grand Slam main-draw debut after qualifying for Roland Garros in May 2026.

Current ranking: #325
Peak ranking: #307 · 2026
Current age: 20
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 29 Sep 2026, 19:24 · Europe/Bucharest

Tabur's 165-place ranking lead against Faurel's better fortnight on hard courts is the tension in this second round, sharpened by Tabur's three-hour first-round match that finished after midnight.

Tabur remains the likelier winner on ranking, but this is close. No quoted price here is worth acting on.

Context

Tabur arrived with five straight defeats behind him, so a first-round win changes how his recent form line reads, and the cost was high: about three hours on court, a 0-3 deficit in the deciding set and a finish shortly after midnight . Faurel's first round lasted two sets, and both men are scheduled again on 30 September. The counterweight is that the beaten opponent was ranked No. 267 and Tabur needed six consecutive games to close the match, while his tracked hard-court record in 2026 is one win from four matches.
- Tabur beat Matteo Martineau 7-6(4) 6-7(5) 6-3 after roughly three hours, having trailed 0-3 in the third set and then winning the final six games.
- The match finished shortly after 00:30 local time and a post-match reaction was published later that morning.
- The result ended a sequence of five consecutive defeats, with his previous win coming in mid-July 2026.
ConfirmedSources checked 29 Sep 2026, 19:22 · Europe/Bucharest
Faurel sits 165 places below Tabur, so his first-round result is the clearest current evidence of how he plays against higher-ranked opposition: two straight-sets wins inside six days, conceding 14 games across four sets. Both wins came on hard courts, and indoor hard is where he has taken three of his four tracked matches in 2026. The limitation is the class of those opponents, since neither Pinnington Jones nor Grenier is inside the top 150, and Tabur's own first-round opponent was of similar standing.
- Faurel beat Jack Pinnington Jones 6-2 6-4 in the first round to reach the last 16.
- Pinnington Jones was ranked No. 197, 128 places above Faurel.
- Faurel beat Hugo Grenier (No. 289) 6-4 6-4 in the first round at the St Tropez Challenger .
ConfirmedSources checked 29 Sep 2026, 19:22 · Europe/Bucharest
His opening sets in that window were the tightest part: they averaged 12.25 games, three of the four featured a tiebreak, and he won only one of them.
Tight opening sets point to a match that takes time to separate the two players, and a 1-3 first-set record leaves the early part of this second round open. The sample is four matches, so this describes his recent hard-court pattern rather than a settled habit.
- Tabur's four tracked hard-court matches between 25 August and 28 September averaged 29.75 games and 2.75 sets per match.
- Three of those four matches went to a deciding set, with scorelines of 2-1, 1-2, 1-2 and 0-2.
- His first sets in that window averaged 12.25 games, three of the four included a tiebreak, and he won one of them.
Faurel's No. 325 sits 18 places below the highest ranking of his career, reached on 22 June, so he arrives near his own best level rather than rebuilding from a decline. The Roland Garros qualifying week remains the only time in 2026 that he has won three matches inside a single event, which matters because a five-match week is what a run to a Challenger title demands of someone ranked outside the top 300. The limitation is that the Paris breakthrough is four months old and he has not repeated it, so his current level rests on this month's results.
- Faurel came through Roland Garros qualifying in May 2026 for a first Grand Slam main draw and reached a career-high No. 307 on 22 June 2026.
- Before the St Tropez Challenger he had not won three matches in a row since the Roland Garros qualifying event in May.
ConfirmedSources checked 29 Sep 2026, 19:22 · Europe/BucharestATP Tour player profilewww.atptour.com · 22 Sep 2026

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Tabur sits 165 ranking places higher and his serve numbers on this surface are solid, while Faurel's wins have come against mostly lower-ranked opposition, so the ranking gap gives Tabur the narrower edge.
- Tabur is ranked No. 160, Faurel No. 325.
- Tabur's hard-court sample is 1-3 with a 60% first-serve-in rate and 69.4% first-serve points won.
- He beat Matteo Martineau 7-6(4) 6-7(5) 6-3 in the first round, ending a five-match losing run.
- Faurel is 4-2 in his six hard-court matches in this window, beating No. 197 Jack Pinnington Jones 6-2 6-4.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonClement TaburEstimated chance57%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tabur's opening sets have consistently gone beyond 9.5 games, driven by three first-set tiebreaks, so the line is more likely than not to be cleared.
- Tabur's four hard-court first sets totalled 13, 13, 13 and 10 games, all above 9.5.
- Faurel's six hard-court first sets totalled 8, 7, 10, 13, 8 and 9 games, with three above 9.5.
- Three of Tabur's four surface matches featured a first-set tiebreak.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have produced second sets above 9.5 games more often than not in this window, so the line leans to the over.
- Tabur's hard-court second sets totalled 13, 10, 7 and 12 games.
- Faurel's six hard-court second sets totalled 10, 8, 10, 6, 8 and 13 games.
- Six of the ten combined second sets went above 9.5 games.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Faurel's recent matches have mostly been short and decisive, and his best results here came with few games played, so an under total is at least as likely as an over.
- Faurel's six hard-court matches averaged 20.67 total games.
- Three of those six finished 2-0, including 6-2 6-4 and 6-2 6-2 wins.
- Tabur's only straight-sets hard-court loss came in 22 games.
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 25.5Estimated chance52%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Tabur's overall ranking advantage and his stronger serve numbers on this surface give him a slight edge if the match reaches a second set, even though his surface form is thin.
- Tabur is 2-2 in second sets across four hard-court matches.
- Faurel is 4-2 in second sets across six hard-court matches.
- Tabur's second sets averaged 10.5 games.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonClement TaburEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Tabur has been taken to three sets in three of his last four hard-court matches and again in the first round, so a deciding set is the more likely shape of this match.
- Tabur's hard-court scorelines in this window were 2-1, 1-2, 1-2 and 0-2.
- His hard-court matches averaged 2.75 sets.
- Faurel's six hard-court scorelines were 2-0 three times, plus 0-2, 1-2 and 2-1, averaging 2.33 sets.
- Tabur's first-round win here went to a deciding set.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Tabur's higher ranking keeps him marginally ahead for the opening set, but his poor first-set record on this surface makes it close to a coin flip.
- Tabur is 1-3 in first sets across four hard-court matches in this window.
- Faurel is 4-2 in first sets across six hard-court matches.
- Tabur's first sets averaged 12.25 games with three tiebreaks in four matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonClement TaburEstimated chance53%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Tabur's serve-oriented, tight sets on this surface have produced tiebreaks in most of his matches, so at least one tiebreak is more likely than not.
- Three of Tabur's four hard-court matches featured a tiebreak, including his first round here.
- Two of Faurel's six hard-court matches featured a tiebreak.
- Tabur's first sets averaged 12.25 games.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance55%

Previous match context available

Clement Tabur

7W 8L

7-6(4) 6-7(5) 6-3#267Matteo Martineau 7-6(6) 4-6 6-3#268Murphy Cassone

7-6(5) 1-6 6-4#191Harold Mayot

6-4 7-5#207Braden Shick

4-6 6-4 6-4#242Henri Squire

7-5 6-3#898Orlando Luz

1-6 7-6(5) 6-4#203Edas Butvilas

6-7(9) 7-6(5) 7-5#33Arthur Rinderknech

4-6 7-5 6-4#140Jurij Rodionov

6-4 7-6(3)#271Marc-Andrea Huesler

6-3 6-4#1046Hendrik Jebens

6-1 3-6 6-4#186Diego Dedura

1-6 7-5 2-6 6-3 6-1#120Shintaro Mochizuki

5-7 7-6(4) 6-4#104Bu Yunchaokete

6-3 6-4#196Federico Agustin Gomez

Thomas Faurel

7W 8L

6-2 6-4#197Jack Pinnington Jones

6-1 6-2#147Mark Lajal

6-4 6-4#284Hugo Grenier

6-7(5) 6-0 6-2#647Andreja Petrovic

6-2 6-2—Yannis Batsabaken

3-6 7-6(2) 6-0#868Adan Freire Da Silva

6-4 7-6(4)#455Dusan Obradovic

7-5 5-7 4-2 ret.#304Calvin Hemery

7-5 7-5#696Giorgio Tabacco

6-1 6-3#235Marvin Moeller

2-6 6-2 6-4#272Cezar Cretu

6-4 6-4#345Nicolas Kicker

7-6(2) 6-2#190Facundo Mena

6-1 7-6(8)#204Timofey Skatov

7-6(4) 4-6 7-6(8)#257Daniel Rincon

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

CTClement TaburTabur

Last 15

4–4

9 core stats · 1 even

Thomas FaurelFaurelTF

Dead-even recent form — the edges are in serve.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In60.3%+1.3pp59.0%

1st Serve Won71.9%+5.9pp66.0%

2nd Serve Won55.3%+3.7pp51.6%

Aces / Match5.5+2.82.7

Double Faults / Match2.30.5 fewer1.8

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won36.4%+4.6pp41.0%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted35.0%+4.3pp39.3%

Break Pts Saved55.2%+1.4pp56.6%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won50.4%—50.2%

Serve · 4–1

60.3%1st Serve In+1.3pp59.0%

71.9%1st Serve Won+5.9pp66.0%

55.3%2nd Serve Won+3.7pp51.6%

5.5Aces / Match+2.82.7

2.3Double Faults / Match0.5 fewer1.8

Return · 0–1

36.4%Return Pts Won+4.6pp41.0%

Pressure · 0–2

35.0%Break Pts Converted+4.3pp39.3%

55.2%Break Pts Saved+1.4pp56.6%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

50.4%Total Pts Won—50.2%