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Predictions graded

Omar Jasika #402Australia2Chase Ferguson #604Australia0

Sets 6-3 · 6-1Mon 28 Sept 2026, 02:07 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions8–189%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageOmar Jasika · 202 places

Omar Jasika

Australia

Jasika, 29, is the left-hander in this matchup. His recorded professional match volume has been predominantly on hard courts.

Current ranking: #402
Peak ranking: #155 · 2024
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 183 cm

Chase Ferguson

Australia

Ferguson is ranked 604th and has competed exclusively on hard courts across his recent matches. Age, career-high ranking and stated preferred surface are not recorded.

Current ranking: #604
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: —
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 28 Sep 2026, 00:21 · Europe/Bucharest

Jasika, ranked 392, meets Ferguson, ranked 604, in the opening round of Jingshan qualifying, with the only completed meeting between them going Jasika's way in straight sets in February 2025.

Jasika is the likelier winner, but the 1.18 price demands far more than that. Ferguson at 4.25 is the price with something in it, though he was beaten in straight sets by opponents ranked 800 and 894 in September.

Context

Ferguson holds the more complete statistical profile in this qualifying match, which matters given the 212-place ranking gap.
A 67.8% first-serve rate and 67.1% of points won behind that first serve suggest Ferguson can hold often enough to stay in sets against a higher-ranked opponent. The 46% break-point conversion is where the pressure on Jasika's serve would come from. He also dropped straight sets to lower-ranked opponents in September, which tempers how much the serving figures can carry here.
- Ferguson's 15 hard-court matches tracked from 27 Aug to 24 Sep 2026: 67.8% first serves in (687/1014), 67.1% first-serve points won (461/687), 54.4% second-serve points won (178/327)
- Return points won 37.9% (382/1009), break points converted 46% (40/87), break points saved 58.6% (51/87)
- Total points won 50.5% (1021/2023) and games won 52.2% (178/341) over the same 15 matches
Ferguson's set-length profile shapes how this qualifying match is likely to be scored.
Seven deciders in 15 matches, including six 2-1 wins, mean a three-set outcome is a live possibility when Ferguson serves as he has been. His flat starts are the counterweight: he has won only 6 of 15 opening sets in the same sample, and losing the first set makes a decider harder to convert. That mix of slow starts and long matches is the tension in his recent record.
- Ferguson's 15 completed hard-court best-of-3 matches from 27 Aug to 24 Sep 2026 produced eight straight-set results (four 2-0 wins, four 0-2 losses) and seven three-set results (six 2-1 wins, one 1-2 loss)
- Average 2.47 sets and 22.7 total games per match across the same 15 matches
- First sets in the same sample: 6 won, 9 lost, with no first-set tiebreaks
Jasika's recent results are defined by short, two-set matches rather than long grinders.
That straight-set share points to Jasika either winning or losing inside two sets, and his 9-4 first-set record in the same sample gives him a reasonable route to the front of this match. The 13-match sample excludes one retirement, so the pattern is real but built on a modest number of completed matches. Jasika's four losses in that set were all 0-2, which is the shape of the risk if he starts slowly.
- Jasika's 13 completed, non-retired hard-court best-of-3 matches from 15 Aug to 22 Sep 2026: scorelines 2-0 eight times, 0-2 four times, 2-1 once
- Set record in the same sample: 9-4 in first sets (5.46 games won to 4.31 lost) and 8-5 in second sets (4.92 to 3.92)
- One retirement is excluded from the 13-match sample, and the matches average 2.08 sets and 19.4 games
The Burnie match is the only sample between the pair, and Jasika won it in straight sets after taking the opening tiebreak. That meeting came at an Australian ITF event, whereas this one is a Challenger 100 on Chinese hard courts, so the setting and stakes differ from the first encounter. A single completed meeting now more than eighteen months old is thin evidence for reading the matchup either way.
- Jasika beat Ferguson 7-6(5) 6-4 at M25 Burnie on 20 February 2025.
- No other completed professional meeting between the two is on record.
ConfirmedSources checked 28 Sep 2026, 00:19 · Europe/BucharestPredictionist match pagepredictionist.com · 27 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Jasika sits higher in the rankings, has the stronger recent set-level record and owns the only head-to-head result.
- Jasika is 9-5 in 14 hard-court matches with a 9-4 first-set and 8-5 second-set record over 13 format-matched hard-court matches
- Ferguson is 10-5 on hard but lost 0-2 to No. 894 Yunseong Chung on 19 Sep and 0-2 to No. 800 Alibek Kachmazov on 24 Sep
- Jasika won the only completed meeting 7-6(5) 6-4 at M25 Burnie in Feb 2025
- Ranking gap: Jasika 392, Ferguson 604
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonOmar JasikaEstimated chance57%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' second sets typically resolve before ten games.
- Jasika's second sets average 8.85 total games across 13 matches
- Ferguson's second sets average 9.20 games across 15 matches
- No second-set tiebreaks recorded for either player
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ferguson's quick first sets and lack of tiebreaks keep the opening set around the nine-game mark.
- Ferguson's first sets average 8.93 total games across 15 hard-court matches
- Jasika's first sets average 9.77 total games
- Ferguson has had no first-set tiebreaks in 15 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ferguson's habit of long three-set matches pulls the expected game count above the line, even though Jasika's own matches finish shorter.
- Ferguson's hard-court matches average 22.7 total games; Jasika's average 19.4
- Ferguson has played a third set in 7 of 15 hard-court matches, Jasika in 1 of 13
- Both players' individual set totals sit close to nine games
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance52%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players produce a majority of straight-set results, and Jasika in particular rarely goes the distance.
- Jasika has played 12 of 13 hard-court matches in straight sets
- Ferguson's 15 hard-court matches include 8 straight-set results
- Jasika's scorelines: 8 wins 2-0, 4 losses 0-2, 1 win 2-1
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Jasika starts matches strongly while Ferguson has repeatedly conceded the opening set.
- Jasika has won the first set in 9 of 13 hard-court matches
- Ferguson has lost the first set in 9 of 15 hard-court matches
- Jasika's first sets average 5.46 games won to 4.31 lost
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonOmar JasikaEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Jasika's second-set record is solid, though Ferguson is also stronger in second sets than first sets.
- Jasika has won the second set in 8 of 13 hard-court matches
- Ferguson has won the second set in 9 of 15 hard-court matches
- Jasika's second sets average 4.92 games won to 3.92 lost
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonOmar JasikaEstimated chance54%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tiebreaks have been uncommon in both players' recent hard-court matches.
- Only 3 of Jasika's 13 hard-court matches featured a tiebreak
- Only 2 of Ferguson's 15 hard-court matches featured a tiebreak
- Ferguson has recorded no first-set or second-set tiebreaks in this sample
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance77%

Omar Jasika

9W 6L

6-4 6-3#165Alex Bolt

6-7(6) 6-2 1-0 ret.#376Luca Castelnuovo

6-4 6-4#232Marat Sharipov (RUS)

6-2 7-5#221Rio Noguchi

6-2 6-1#421Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

7-6(7) 6-3#893Yaojie Zeng

6-2 6-3#313Akira Santillan

6-2 6-3#653Filip Peliwo

7-6(0) 6-2#891Aoran Wang

6-4 6-3#898Kuan-Shou Chen

6-3 6-3#807Kousuke Ogura

6-7(5) 6-3 10-4#679Ryuki Matsuda

6-3 2-6 6-4#880Kristjan Tamm

7-6(3) 6-2#807Kousuke Ogura

6-2 6-2#894Yunseong Chung

Chase Ferguson

10W 5L

6-3 6-3#800Alibek Kachmazov

6-4 1-6 6-1#576Nino Ehrenschneider

6-2 6-3#894Yunseong Chung

6-3 6-4#898Sheng Tang

4-6 6-4 6-4—Zhenxiong Dong

6-3 4-6 6-1—Minghui Zhang

6-2 4-6 7-6(1)#891Jerry Roddick

4-6 6-4 6-4#570Sanhui Shin

6-2 6-4#795Yuki Mochizuki

6-1 6-3—Riku Takahata

6-2 6-3#548Keisuke Saitoh

4-6 6-1 7-6(1)#693Yusuke Takahashi

6-1 6-4#839Rigele Te

5-7 6-4 6-3—Fumin Jiang

6-3 6-2#821Hanyi Liu

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

OJOmar JasikaJasika

Last 15

7–1

9 core stats · 1 even

Chase FergusonFergusonCF

Omar Jasika carries the stronger recent form — Chase Ferguson's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

1st Serve In73.5%+5.7pp67.8%

1st Serve Won68.7%+1.6pp67.1%

2nd Serve Won55.3%+0.9pp54.4%

Aces / Match1.9—2.1

Double Faults / Match2.00.5 fewer1.5

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won39.6%+1.7pp37.9%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted48.1%+2.1pp46.0%

Break Pts Saved67.4%+8.8pp58.6%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won52.3%+1.8pp50.5%

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

73.5%1st Serve In+5.7pp67.8%

68.7%1st Serve Won+1.6pp67.1%

55.3%2nd Serve Won+0.9pp54.4%

1.9Aces / Match—2.1

2.0Double Faults / Match0.5 fewer1.5

Return · 1–0

39.6%Return Pts Won+1.7pp37.9%

Pressure · 2–0

48.1%Break Pts Converted+2.1pp46.0%

67.4%Break Pts Saved+8.8pp58.6%

Points · 1–0

52.3%Total Pts Won+1.8pp50.5%