ChinaWTA BeijingFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Maddison Inglis #132Australia2Xinxin Yao #280China0

Sets 6-1 · 7-5Mon 28 Sept 2026, 11:30 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions3–443%

Edges1–233%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMaddison Inglis · 148 places

Maddison Inglis

Australia

Inglis is 28, right-handed, and 171 cm. Her listed career-best singles ranking is No. 112.

Current ranking: #132
Peak ranking: #112
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 171 cm

Xinxin Yao

China

Yao, 22, is the left-hander in this matchup. She reached a career-best No. 205 in January 2025.

Current ranking: #280
Peak ranking: #205 · 2025
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 28 Sep 2026, 04:08 · Europe/Bucharest

Yao has gone to a deciding set in five of her last eight hard-court matches and Inglis has not competed since 25 August, so whether this Beijing qualifier runs long is the live question.

Inglis is the higher-ranked player and the likelier winner, but 1.80 asks more than her record justifies. Over 2.5 sets at 2.30 and Over 22.5 games at 2.00 are the two prices worth backing.

Context

Yao's most recent match was a Korea Open first round she lost from a set and 5-1 up with three match points in hand, on a hard court against a higher-ranked opponent. The week is the firmest recent evidence of her level: she qualified for the main draw and then pushed that opponent to three sets, which is more competitive than her ranking implies. The same match also shows her failing to close, having surrendered a commanding lead and three match points. It is the clearest recent measure of her hard-court level against tour-ranked opposition going into this Beijing qualifying round.
- The Korea Open first-round match went to Maya Joint after she recovered from a set and 5-1 down and saved three match points.
- Yao entered the Korea Open main draw as a qualifier, having won through the qualifying rounds.
ConfirmedSources checked 28 Sep 2026, 04:06 · Europe/Bucharest
Inglis goes into a WTA 1000 qualifying round with her last recorded match more than four weeks old.
Yao has played through September, including a qualifying run and a three-set main-draw match in Seoul, while Inglis's record stops on 25 August. The 25 August result, a 3-12 loss to a player ranked No. 179, was a heavy one. Match sharpness cannot be measured from a record alone and a layoff does not decide a match by itself, but the contrast in recent workload is the clearest difference between two players separated by 0.4 percentage points in hard-court points won.
- Inglis's most recent listed match is dated 25 August 2026: a 0-2 defeat (3-6, 0-6, 3-12 in games) to Storm Hunter, ranked No. 179.
- No later Inglis match appears in the supplied record before the 28 September fixture.
Yao's first sets in that window have been lopsided, averaging 5.75 games to 3.63 for her opponents.
Long matches give an underdog more chances to stay in a contest she is not favoured to win, and Yao's eight-match September sample produced five deciding sets along with a 130-minute average match time. She also lost three of those eight in straight sets, so the pattern is a tendency rather than a rule, and Inglis's own matches in the record have been shorter.
- Yao's eight completed hard-court matches from 1 to 21 September 2026 average 25.0 total games and 2.63 sets per match.
- Five of those eight went to a deciding set; the scoreline split is three 2-0 wins, one 2-1 win and four 1-2 defeats.
- Her average hard-court match time in that window is 130.1 minutes.
Inglis's window split three 2-0 wins, two 2-1 wins and three 0-2 defeats, so every loss came without her taking a set.
When Inglis has lost on hard courts in this window she has lost quickly, and even her wins were mostly settled inside two sets. That is the counterweight to the expectation of a long match here: the three-set case depends on Yao pushing the contest past two sets. If Inglis's serve keeps games short, the pattern in her own record works the other way.
- Inglis's eight completed hard-court matches from 28 April to 25 August 2026 average 20.5 total games and 2.25 sets per match.
- The scoreline split over those eight matches is three 2-0 wins, two 2-1 wins and three 0-2 defeats.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Maddison Inglis

1.80fair 1.89

BetBugs 53% · Market 55.6%

−2.6ppshort

The higher-ranked player with the stronger first-serve points record gets a narrow advantage, and the points-won numbers show how little separates them.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.80
The read
The higher-ranked player with the stronger first-serve points record gets a narrow advantage, and the points-won numbers show how little separates them.
- Inglis is ranked No. 138 to Yao's No. 284 and has won 5 of her last 8 hard-court matches
- Inglis takes 67.2% of first-serve points on hard this window; Yao takes 60.0%
- Total points won on hard is nearly level: Inglis 50.7%, Yao 50.3%
- Yao has lost 9 of her last 15 matches overall
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMaddison InglisEstimated chance53%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Yao has kept matches close against higher-ranked opponents, and this line survives a narrow defeat.
- Yao's game margins in her last six hard-court matches were 0, +7, +2, -3, -7 and +8
- Five of her last eight hard-court matches went to a deciding set
- Both players win close to half of all points on this surface
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostXinxin Yao +3.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Yao's matches routinely run long and the near-even points-won figures point to a contest that needs extra games.
- Yao's hard-court matches average 25.0 total games across 8 matches
- Inglis's hard-court matches average 20.5 total games across 8 matches
- Yao has played a deciding set in 5 of her last 8 hard-court matches
- Yao's average hard-court match lasts 130 minutes
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 22.5Estimated chance53%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.30
The read
Yao's long matches and the narrow gap in points won suggest a match likely to require a deciding set.
- Yao has gone to a deciding set in 5 of her last 8 hard-court matches
- Yao's hard-court matches average 2.63 sets
- Inglis's hard-court matches average 2.25 sets
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Inglis has closed matches better, and Yao has repeatedly let strong positions slip in second and third sets.
- Inglis has won 4 of 8 second sets on hard
- Yao has lost four recent matches after winning a set, including from 5-1 up in the second against Maya Joint
- Inglis's second-set games won average is 4.13 against 4.63 lost
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonMaddison InglisEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Yao has been the faster starter on this surface and has kept her opening sets short.
- Yao has won 6 of 8 first sets on hard, averaging 5.75 games to 3.63
- Inglis has won only 4 of 8 first sets
- Yao took the opening set 6-2 against No. 99 Maya Joint in Seoul
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostXinxin YaoEstimated chance51%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most of the completed matches in both samples were settled without a tiebreak.
- Only 4 of the 16 combined hard-court matches in the samples had a tiebreak
- Inglis's hard-court matches average 20.5 games, reducing tiebreak exposure
- Inglis's most recent match had no tiebreak set
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The two players together average close to five aces a match on this surface.
- Inglis averages 2.8 aces per hard-court match this window
- Yao averages 2.1 aces per hard-court match
- Their combined average of about 4.9 sits above the line
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Inglis's high double-fault rate pushes the combined total just above this line.
- Inglis averages 3.6 double faults per hard-court match
- Yao averages 2.5 double faults per hard-court match
- Inglis has 29 double faults across her 8 hard-court matches; Yao has 20
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance55%

Previous match context available

Maddison Inglis

7W 8L

6-3 6-0#179Storm Hunter

7-6(5) 6-3#94Taylah Preston

6-3 6-4#171Mai Hontama

6-4 6-7(9) 6-3#105Moyuka Uchijima

6-1 6-3#217Greetje Minnen

6-3 6-3#152Sofia Costoulas

6-3 3-6 6-4#130Lucia Bronzetti

6-4 5-7 6-2#16Sorana Cirstea

6-3 2-6 6-2#235Hanyu Guo

5-7 6-4 6-4#70Alycia Parks

6-2 6-3#219Celine Naef

6-1 7-5#162Robin Montgomery

6-2 6-2#109Anastasia Zakharova

6-3 6-0#320Ena Koike

3-6 6-2 6-4#185Yeon Woo Ku

Xinxin Yao

6W 9L

2-6 7-6(7) 6-3#99Maya Joint 6-1 6-4#359Miho Kuramochi 6-7(1) 7-6(6) 7-5#226Priscilla Hon

4-6 6-3 6-4#488Wushuang Zheng

4-6 6-2 6-1#158Alexandra Shubladze

6-1 6-3#486Ya-Yi Yang

6-4 6-1#254Sara Saito

6-4 4-6 6-2#314Anastasia Kulikova

6-2 4-6 6-0#444Rasheeda Mcadoo

6-4 6-2#542Ida Wobker

6-0 6-4#293Nastasja Mariana Schunk

6-2 6-2#272Dayeon Back

6-3 6-4#776Lola Giza

6-2 6-2—Sophie Triquart

6-1 7-6(4)#232Francesca Curmi

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MIMaddison InglisInglis

Last 15

2–4

9 core stats · 3 even

Xinxin YaoYaoXY

Xinxin Yao carries the stronger recent form — Maddison Inglis's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In59.2%+3.6pp62.8%

1st Serve Won66.4%+8.6pp57.8%

2nd Serve Won44.6%—44.5%

Aces / Match2.2+0.61.6

Double Faults / Match4.12.4 fewer1.7

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won40.7%+4.1pp44.8%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted47.5%+1.3pp48.8%

Break Pts Saved52.6%—52.8%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won48.9%—49.1%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

59.2%1st Serve In+3.6pp62.8%

66.4%1st Serve Won+8.6pp57.8%

44.6%2nd Serve Won—44.5%

2.2Aces / Match+0.61.6

4.1Double Faults / Match2.4 fewer1.7

Return · 0–1

40.7%Return Pts Won+4.1pp44.8%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

47.5%Break Pts Converted+1.3pp48.8%

52.6%Break Pts Saved—52.8%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

48.9%Total Pts Won—49.1%