ChinaWTA BeijingFinished

Predictions graded

Harriet Dart #276United Kingdom2Tiphanie Lemaitre #441France0

Sets 6-2 · 6-3Mon 28 Sept 2026, 03:08 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions6–367%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageThiago Moura Monteiro · 165 places

Thiago Moura Monteiro

United Kingdom

Reached a career-high No. 61 in October 2022; the supplied current ranking is No. 276. He is a left-handed baseline player most established on clay, where all 16 of his Challenger finals have been played.

Current ranking: #276
Peak ranking: #61 · 2022
Current age: 32
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Left handed
Height: 183 cm

Tiphanie Lemaitre

France

French player currently ranked around No. 441 who competes in both singles and doubles at ITF level; she was part of the second-seeded doubles pair at the W75 in Le Neubourg in September 2026. No reliable public detail on age, career-high ranking, height or playing style was found.

Current ranking: #441
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: —
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Sep 2026, 22:31 · Europe/Bucharest

Dart, the No. 115 and second seed in Beijing qualifying, should have too much for No.

441 Lemaitre, but she arrives from a Billie Jean King Cup week in Shenzhen and has needed three sets to win most of her recent hard-court matches. Dart to win at 1.12 asks for a near-certainty and leaves nothing for those risks, so it isn't worth taking; no other price was reviewed.

Context

Dart's No. 115 against Lemaitre's No. 441 is the largest measurable difference between the two, and the qualifying draw reflects it: Dart is seeded second behind Dayana Yastremska, while Lemaitre is unseeded. Qualifying uses the same two-round format for both players, so the gap shows up in the level of weekly competition each has been in rather than in the draw structure. For a player ranked No. 441, a WTA 1000 qualifying round is the biggest step up in opposition the field offers.
- Qualifying seed list: 1 Yastremska 110, 2 Dart 115
- Dart ranked No. 115; Lemaitre ranked No. 441
- Lemaitre unseeded in the qualifying draw
ConfirmedSources checked 27 Sep 2026, 22:29 · Europe/BucharestChina Open match listingwww.wtaschedule.com · 27 Sep 2026
Dart's route into the US Open main draw took three qualifying rounds, and she then beat No. 36 Peyton Stearns before losing to No. 26 Marie Bouzkova, so her most recent singles sample is against top-40 opposition on hard courts. That run pushed her back towards the top 100 and is why she enters this draw as its second seed at No. 115. It is the strongest recent hard-court sequence of the two players, and it came against a much higher standard of opponent than this qualifying round.
- Three US Open qualifying wins, including over Heather Watson
- US Open main-draw first-round win over No. 36 Peyton Stearns
- Second-round loss to No. 26 Marie Bouzkova
- Ranked No. 115 in mid-September, moving towards the top 100
ConfirmedSources checked 27 Sep 2026, 22:29 · Europe/Bucharest
Lemaitre was in Yecla, Spain through and is in Beijing for a match on 28 September, so she completes an intercontinental trip and a six-hour time change with roughly one day between events. The match is also a jump in level, from a 50K ITF event to the qualifying draw of a WTA 1000. Whereas Dart's preparation week was spent in China at a team event in the same country, Lemaitre's involves long-haul travel into a higher tier. Her adaptation to the surface and time change is undocumented, so that is the practical unknown.
- W50 Yecla ended
- Beijing qualifying first round on 28 September 2026
- Step up from ITF 50K to WTA 1000 qualifying
ConfirmedSources checked 27 Sep 2026, 22:29 · Europe/Bucharest
Dart's 13 hard-court matches from July to September averaged 21.23 games, so a quick straight-sets afternoon has not been her usual hard-court pattern.
More than half of Dart's 13-match hard-court sample finished in a third set, and only three of those matches produced a tiebreak, so her games are usually settled by breaks rather than shootouts. Against a lower-ranked opponent, that pattern suggests the match may take longer to close out than the ranking gap implies.
- 13 hard-court matches tracked, 13 July to 3 September 2026
- Total games average 21.23 per match
- Six matches reached a deciding set: five 2-1 wins, one 1-2 loss
- Three of the 13 matches featured a tiebreak; one retirement is excluded from the aggregate

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Harriet Dart

1.12fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 89.3%

−14.3ppshort

Dart has competed at a higher level on hard courts and is the clear favorite on ranking and form.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.12
The read
Dart has competed at a higher level on hard courts and is the clear favorite on ranking and form.
- Dart is ranked No. 115; Lemaitre is No. 441.
- Dart is 8-5 on hard in her current-surface sample; Lemaitre is 3-7.
- Dart is the second seed in qualifying; Lemaitre is unseeded.
- Dart beat No. 36 Peyton Stearns at the US Open; Lemaitre lost to No. 769 Charo Esquiva Banuls in her last match.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonHarriet DartEstimated chance75%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
First sets have averaged fewer than 9.5 games for both players on hard courts.
- Dart's first sets average 8.46 total games on hard.
- Lemaitre's first sets average 9.2 total games on hard.
- Combined first-set average is about 8.8 games.
- Dart's first sets have zero tiebreaks; Lemaitre's have one.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined second-set average is below the 9.5 line.
- Dart's second sets average 8.77 total games on hard.
- Lemaitre's second sets average 9.6 total games on hard.
- Combined second-set average is about 9.1 games.
- Dart's second sets have two tiebreaks; Lemaitre's have two.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have recent hard-court matches that often last past 21 games.
- Dart's hard-court matches average 21.23 total games.
- Lemaitre's hard-court matches average 21.10 total games.
- Dart has gone to three sets in 6 of 13 hard-court matches.
- Lemaitre has gone to three sets in 3 of 10 hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance52%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Dart remains the stronger player overall, even though her second-set record is modest.
- Dart has a 6-7 record in second sets on hard courts.
- Lemaitre has a 4-6 record in second sets on hard courts.
- Dart's second-set games won average is 4.46, lost 4.31.
- Lemaitre's second-set games won average is 4.5, lost 5.1.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonHarriet DartEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Dart's higher ranking gives her the advantage, though first sets have been close for both.
- Dart has a 6-7 record in first sets on hard courts.
- Lemaitre has a 5-5 record in first sets on hard courts.
- Dart's first-set games won average is 4.08, lost 4.38.
- Lemaitre's first-set games won average is 4.6, lost 4.6.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonHarriet DartEstimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Dart has frequently needed three sets to win, and the match is expected to be competitive.
- Dart has gone to three sets in 6 of 13 hard-court matches.
- Lemaitre has gone to three sets in 3 of 10 hard-court matches.
- Dart's five hard-court wins in the sample all came in three sets.
- Lemaitre's three hard-court wins all came in straight sets.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance54%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most recent hard-court matches for both players have not produced a tiebreak.
- Dart's hard-court matches had no tiebreak in 10 of 13.
- Lemaitre's hard-court matches had no tiebreak in 7 of 10.
- Combined, 17 of 23 hard-court matches had no tiebreak.
- Both players have low first-set tiebreak counts.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance68%

Previous match context available

Harriet Dart

9W 6L

6-2 6-2#26Marie Bouzkova

3-6 6-3 6-2#36Peyton Stearns

2-6 6-4 6-1#387Heather Watson

5-7 6-0 6-3#623Kristina Penickova

6-0 6-7(1) 6-1—Jordyn Hazelitt

6-1 7-6(6)#36Peyton Stearns

6-3 6-4#372Aoi Ito

6-3 6-0#105Moyuka Uchijima

3-6 6-0 6-2#135Sloane Stephens

6-3 6-3#94Taylah Preston

6-0 3-6 3-0 ret.#884Emma Dong

6-2 6-1#157Kayla Cross

6-1 6-2#33Maria Sakkari

6-3 3-6 7-6(4)#278Mina Hodzic

6-3 3-6 6-4#32Jelena Ostapenko

Tiphanie Lemaitre

5W 10L

2-6 7-6(5) 6-0#769Charo Esquiva Banuls

6-4 7-5#328Lea Boskovic

6-4 6-4#465Valentina Ivanov

6-3 7-6(4)#376Naiktha Bains

7-6(0) 6-3#482Mara Guth

6-0 6-0#756Anastasia Bertacchi

7-5 7-6(5)—Elsa Bonelli

6-4 4-6 6-3#286Daria Khomutsianskaya

6-1 6-0#353Angelina Voloshchuk

6-1 6-3#258Yasmine Kabbaj

4-6 6-3 6-2#631Ruien Zhang

6-3 6-2#667Melisa Ercan

6-2 6-0#242Han Shi

1-6 7-5 4-2 ret.#822Kristina Mladenovic

7-6(3) 6-2#525Anna Kubareva

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

HDHarriet DartDart

Last 15

5–3

9 core stats · 1 even

Tiphanie LemaitreLemaitreTL

Harriet Dart carries the stronger recent form — Tiphanie Lemaitre's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In52.3%+3.5pp55.8%

1st Serve Won65.7%+5.7pp60.0%

2nd Serve Won41.1%+5.5pp46.6%

Aces / Match1.7—1.7

Double Faults / Match4.50.6 fewer3.9

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won48.5%+5.6pp42.9%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted47.7%+3.3pp44.4%

Break Pts Saved58.7%+7.1pp51.6%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won51.3%+2.9pp48.4%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

52.3%1st Serve In+3.5pp55.8%

65.7%1st Serve Won+5.7pp60.0%

41.1%2nd Serve Won+5.5pp46.6%

1.7Aces / Match—1.7

4.5Double Faults / Match0.6 fewer3.9

Return · 1–0

48.5%Return Pts Won+5.6pp42.9%

Pressure · 2–0

47.7%Break Pts Converted+3.3pp44.4%

58.7%Break Pts Saved+7.1pp51.6%

Points · 1–0

51.3%Total Pts Won+2.9pp48.4%