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Predictions graded

Fausto Tabacco #557Italy2Alejo Sanchez Quilez #395Spain1

Sets 6-0 · 4-6 · 6-1Mon 28 Sept 2026, 10:10 Predictions gradedQ3Hard

Predictions3–633%

Edges1–233%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAlejo Sanchez Quilez · 162 places

Fausto Tabacco

Italy

Tabacco, 24, is a right-hander listed at 183 cm. His recorded singles peak is No. 433 in August 2023.

Current ranking: #557
Peak ranking: #433 · 2023
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Alejo Sanchez Quilez

Spain

Reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 387 on 24 August 2026. No reliable public declaration of a preferred surface was found.

Current ranking: #395
Peak ranking: #387 · 2026
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 28 Sep 2026, 03:53 · Europe/Bucharest

Sanchez Quilez arrives 164 ranking places higher with the stronger hard-court serve, but Tabacco has won nine of 12 hard matches and took four of his last six.

Sanchez Quilez is the likelier winner and a straight-sets finish is the more probable shape; the quoted 1.36 on him to win, 1.44 for the opening set and 1.9 for a 2-0 win do not pay for that. Tabacco at 2.9 is the only reviewed price that offers anything.

Context

Two main-draw wins at a Challenger, one of them over a top-250 opponent, are the strongest hard-court results the 21-year-old has produced, and they came from a wildcard rather than a protected ranking. The run lifted him to No. 364 by mid-September from No. 395 at the start of the month, which matters for a hard-court fixture against a lower-ranked opponent because it shows he can carry a wildcard deep into a week. Mark Lajal then beat him in straight sets in the quarter-finals, so the evidence of a step up rests on one tournament rather than a settled run of results.
- Wildcard entry into the Mallorca Challenger main draw in early September.
- Wins over Felipe Meligeni (7-5 6-4) and Maks Kasnikowski (7-5 7-6(5)) before a quarter-final loss to Mark Lajal (6-2 6-3).
- Ranked No. 395 in early September and No. 364 by .
ConfirmedSources checked 28 Sep 2026, 03:52 · Europe/Bucharest
Tabacco has started hard-court matches evenly and then won the majority of the sets that follow.
The split matters because Alejo Sanchez Quilez has won 10 of his 13 first sets on hard, so the opening set is where Tabacco has been most exposed; if he gets through it, his second-set record points to a longer match, and five of his nine hard-court wins in this window needed a decider.
- First sets on hard: 6 wins, 6 losses across 12 matches (8–27 September 2026).
- Second sets: 8 wins, 4 losses over the same 12 matches.
- Five of his nine hard-court wins in the window came in three sets; four were 2-0.
Sanchez Quilez's serving on hard has kept most of his matches short, though his most recent one went the distance.
He wins 74.1% of hard-court sets and 55.8% of games, and six of his 13 matches contained a tiebreak, so even his short matches often include a tight set. His most recent outing, a 6-3 3-6 6-1 win over Alexander Donski on 27 September, shows the two-set pattern can break.
- Scorelines across 13 hard-court matches (15 July–27 September 2026): nine 2-0, three 0-2, one 2-1.
- Sets won on hard: 20 of 27 (74.1%); games won: 155 of 278 (55.8%).
- Six of the 13 matches included a tiebreak; average 21.4 games per match.
- Most recent match, 27 September: beat Alexander Donski 6-3 3-6 6-1.
The match is listed as the second round on Court 3 at 10:00, where it opens a three-match card that continues with Matusevich-Bertrand and then Geerts-Domingues. That puts this fixture in the day's first slot on a side court while the tournament's headline names are scheduled elsewhere, and the length of the opener shapes when the following matches start. The listing carries nothing about either player's condition or about how the court plays, so it frames the occasion rather than the contest.
- The fixture is listed as a second-round match on Court 3 with a 10:00 start.
- Court 3 programme: this match first, then Matusevich-Bertrand, then Geerts-Domingues.
ConfirmedSources checked 28 Sep 2026, 03:52 · Europe/BucharestTennis Temple - Porto 2026 match listingen.tennistemple.com · 27 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Set 1 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Alejo Sanchez Quilez

1.44fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 69.4%

−9.4ppshort

Sanchez Quilez starts hard-court matches strongly, while Tabacco has been even in opening sets and is the weaker server early.

Set BettinglostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Alejo Sanchez Quilez 2-0

1.90fair 2.17

BetBugs 46% · Market 52.6%

−6.6ppshort

Sanchez Quilez has repeatedly won hard matches in straight sets and has the serve to avoid a decider.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Sanchez Quilez has served and held far more securely on hard and gives away very few free points, while Tabacco's heavy double-fault count hands back games.
- Sanchez Quilez is 10-3 on hard in this window, winning 74.1% of sets and 55.8% of games.
- He has won 71.3% of first-serve points on hard versus 64.4% for Tabacco.
- Tabacco averages 7.0 double faults per hard match (84 in 12) against 1.7 for Sanchez Quilez.
- Sanchez Quilez is ranked 364, Tabacco 528.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAlejo Sanchez QuilezEstimated chance63%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First sets on this surface have generally run past nine games for both players, helped by close service holds.
- Sanchez Quilez's first sets average 10.4 games on hard.
- Tabacco's first sets average 9.8 games, with four tiebreaks in 12 matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sanchez Quilez's straight-set wins and shorter matches pull the total below the line, though Tabacco's longer contests balance it.
- Sanchez Quilez's hard matches average 21.4 games.
- Tabacco's hard matches average 22.9 games.
- Sanchez Quilez's average match duration on hard is 103.5 minutes.
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 22.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sanchez Quilez's second sets regularly pass nine games, while Tabacco's are shorter, leaving only a slight lean over.
- Sanchez Quilez's second sets average 10.5 games on hard, with four tiebreaks in 13 matches.
- Tabacco's second sets average 8.9 games, with no tiebreaks in 12.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Sanchez Quilez has finished almost all of his hard matches in straight sets, and his serve has been strong enough to avoid the long matches that Tabacco often plays.
- Sanchez Quilez's hard sample: nine 2-0 wins, three 0-2 losses, one 2-1, averaging 2.08 sets per match.
- Tabacco averages 2.5 sets per match (five 2-1 wins, four 2-0, one 1-2).
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Sanchez Quilez starts hard-court matches strongly, while Tabacco has been even in opening sets and is the weaker server early.
- Sanchez Quilez has won 10 of 13 first sets on hard and averages 5.69 games won in set one.
- Tabacco is 6-6 in first sets on hard.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostAlejo Sanchez QuilezEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players are strong in second sets, but Sanchez Quilez's overall serving level makes him the slightly more likely winner.
- Sanchez Quilez has won 9 of 13 second sets on hard.
- Tabacco has won 8 of 12 second sets on hard.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonAlejo Sanchez QuilezEstimated chance56%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Breaks have been common enough in these matches that more than half have finished without a tiebreak.
- Combined, 10 of 25 hard matches for these two players featured a tiebreak.
- Set two tiebreaks: none for Tabacco in 12 matches, four for Sanchez Quilez in 13.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sanchez Quilez's serve produces enough aces that the combined match figure sits just above the line.
- Sanchez Quilez averages 3.6 aces per hard match; Tabacco 2.0.
- Their combined recent hard-court average is about 5.6 aces per match.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined average sits just above the line, but a straight-sets match would cut the serving volume enough to keep it under.
- Combined hard-court double faults per match for the two players is about 8.7, across samples of 12 and 13 matches.
- Sanchez Quilez's 1.7 per match is the lowest contribution in this pair.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 8.5Estimated chance53%

Fausto Tabacco

11W 4L

1-6 6-4 6-4#700Rafael Izquierdo Luque

6-0 6-4#226Inaki Montes-De La Torre

6-7(4) 6-3 6-2#721Jack Anthrop

6-2 6-2#413Patrick Schoen

7-6(6) 6-1#733Giorgio Tabacco

7-6(5) 6-2#394Lui Maxted

3-6 6-4 6-1#753Adria Soriano Barrera

7-6(4) 6-2—Pierre Antoine Tailleu

3-6 6-4 6-4#651Goncalo Marques

4-6 7-5 6-3#678Tiago Cacao

6-3 1-6 6-0—Alen Mujakic

6-2 6-2—Rodrigo Leal

6-3 3-6 6-0#438Juan Cruz Martin Manzano

3-6 6-3 7-6(9)#389Andrey Chepelev

7-5 3-6 6-3#745Matteo Covato

Alejo Sanchez Quilez

10W 5L

6-3 3-6 6-1#523Alexander Donski

6-2 6-2#310Oriol Roca Batalla

7-6(4) 6-4#766Alejandro Turriziani Alvarez

6-2 6-3#143Mark Lajal

7-5 7-6(5)#235Maks Kasnikowski

7-5 6-4#463Felipe Meligeni Alves

6-4 6-4#466Izan Almazan Valiente

6-3 7-6(5)#729Aryan Shah

7-6(2) 6-2#873Andrea Colombo

7-6(0) 7-5#651Goncalo Marques

6-4 6-3#700Rafael Izquierdo Luque

6-4 7-6(6)#299Oliver Crawford

6-3 6-3#391Antoine Ghibaudo

6-4 7-6(4)#332Tiago Pereira

6-4 6-2#329Yanki Erel

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

FTFausto TabaccoTabacco

Last 15

2–4

9 core stats · 3 even

Alejo Sanchez QuilezQuilezAQ

Alejo Sanchez Quilez carries the stronger recent form — Fausto Tabacco's route runs through return.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In65.0%+3.5pp61.5%

1st Serve Won64.4%+5.2pp69.6%

2nd Serve Won41.4%+12.7pp54.1%

Aces / Match1.9+1.43.3

Double Faults / Match7.35.8 fewer1.5

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won46.0%+5.4pp40.6%

Pressure · 0–0 · 2 even

Break Pts Converted44.8%—45.2%

Break Pts Saved56.4%—57.1%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won51.2%—51.8%

Serve · 1–4

65.0%1st Serve In+3.5pp61.5%

64.4%1st Serve Won+5.2pp69.6%

41.4%2nd Serve Won+12.7pp54.1%

1.9Aces / Match+1.43.3

7.3Double Faults / Match5.8 fewer1.5

Return · 1–0

46.0%Return Pts Won+5.4pp40.6%

Pressure · 0–0 · 2 even

44.8%Break Pts Converted—45.2%

56.4%Break Pts Saved—57.1%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

51.2%Total Pts Won—51.8%