ChinaWTA BeijingFinished

Predictions graded

Andrea Lazaro Garcia #147Spain2Tian Jialin #605China1

Sets 1-6 · 6-4 · 6-4Mon 28 Sept 2026, 04:44 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions7–464%

Edges2–250%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAndrea Lazaro Garcia · 458 places

Andrea Lazaro Garcia

Spain

Structured match data lists Lázaro García at No. 147 and right-handed. The requested searches did not return a sufficiently reliable current public bio for age, career-high ranking, or preferred surface.

Current ranking: #147
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Tian Jialin

China

Chinese player, currently ranked No. 605. She has won two matches in Yecla this week, the second after losing the opening set. No reliable public information on her age, height, hand, career-high ranking or preferred surface was located.

Current ranking: #605
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: —
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 28 Sep 2026, 03:17 · Europe/Bucharest

A top-150 player dropping into Beijing qualifying against the world No. 605 looks one-sided, but Lazaro's hard-court evidence is three matches in one week in August while Tian has played and won on hard this month.

Lazaro is still the likelier winner. The 1.12 on her asks for far more than that form supports; Tian to win at 6.00, ten or more games in the first set at 2.60, the match reaching a third set at 3.30 and nine or more games in the second at 1.75 all offer something.

Context

Both players enter through the qualifying draw of a WTA 1000 event rather than the main draw, so neither has a protected place in the tournament and the loser's singles week ends here. Lázaro García, a top-150 player, is dropping into a qualifying draw, which frames the level of this tie. The match is the second on Court 5 on Monday, when the qualifying first round is completed. Qualifying is single elimination with no second chance, so an opening-round defeat closes the week's singles.
- The women's qualifying first round at the China Open in Beijing is played on Monday 28 September 2026.
- The fixture is listed second on Court 5, following an 11:00 local start on the same court.
ReportedSources checked 28 Sep 2026, 03:15 · Europe/Bucharest
The US Open qualifying wins are Lázaro García's most recent hard-court evidence before Beijing, and they came against opponents ranked inside the top 200. Against Hontama she dropped the first set and then won the decider 6-1, so the run included a three-set recovery rather than only straight-set wins. Her weeks after New York were spent on European clay in Montreux and Valencia, making the Beijing hard courts a surface change from her last three events. It is a short and specific form line rather than a long hard-court record.
- She beat Elina Avanesyan and Mai Hontama in US Open qualifying before losing to Polina Iatcenko.
- Against Hontama she lost the opening set and then took the deciding set 6-1.
ConfirmedSources checked 28 Sep 2026, 03:15 · Europe/Bucharest
Lazaro Garcia is the higher-ranked player here, but her hard-court record rests on a very short, dated sample.
The three-match sample is small and dated, describing a short burst of hard-court tennis rather than a settled level on the surface. Two of the three went to a tiebreak and the scorelines read 2-0, 2-1 and 0-2, so the results look mixed rather than dominant. One further match in the window ended in retirement and is not part of these totals, leaving the sample as thin as it can be. Here the ranking gap, not a body of hard-court evidence, is what makes her favourite.
- Lazaro Garcia's hard-court set evidence covers three matches from 24 to 27 August 2026.
- Those three matches average 24.33 games each, and two of the three contain a tiebreak.
- Scorelines in the sample read 2-0, 2-1 and 0-2.
- One match in the window ended in retirement and is excluded from the totals.
Tian Jialin arrives at No. 605 having played her most recent tennis on hard courts, including a two-set loss decided by one game in each set.
That 23 September result is her last competitive outing before Beijing, and it shows she could stay level with a player ranked in the 500s without taking either set. It came on the same surface as this fixture, so it speaks directly to how she might compete here. As the No. 605 player she would need to convert exactly those narrow sets against a top-150 opponent; the record does not show her doing it, but it does show the set-level gap was one game each.
- On 23 September 2026 Tian Jialin lost 6-7 6-7 to Carmen Gallardo Guevara (No. 532) on a hard court.
- She won 12 games to 14 across the two sets.
- It is her latest completed match before the Beijing qualifying round on 28 September.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
She is the higher-ranked player and won two hard-court qualifying rounds in late August, so she starts with the clearer edge.
- Ranked No. 136 against No. 605
- 8-6 in the last 15 matches overall
- 2-1 on hard in the tracked window, including two US Open qualifying wins
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAndrea Lazaro GarciaEstimated chance62%

Games5 of 6 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Three of Tian's four hard-court matches finished inside a seven-game margin, so a seven-game buffer covers most outcomes.
- Her hard-court margins this window read -2, +7, +9 and -7
- Only her seven-game loss to a No. 895 opponent exceeded this line
- Lazaro's listed hard match ended 6-13
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonTian Jialin +6.5Estimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tian's recent hard-court margins include a +7 and a +9, so a six-game buffer covers much of her range.
- Two of her four hard matches had a margin better than +5.5
- Her hard-court game record this window is 44-37
- Lazaro's only listed hard match was a seven-game loss
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonTian Jialin +5.5Estimated chance73%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tian's hard-court margins have been wide in both directions, and Lazaro has not shown a large winning game margin on this surface.
- Tian's hard-court game margins read -2, +7, +9 and -7
- Two of her four hard matches finished with a margin better than +4.5
- Lazaro's only listed hard match was a 6-13 game loss
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonTian Jialin +4.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.75
The read
Second sets have been the longest phase for Lazaro and comfortably clear the lower line for Tian.
- Lazaro's second sets average 11.0 games
- Tian's second sets average 9.25 games
- Two of Lazaro's three hard matches had a second-set tiebreak
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 8.5Estimated chance61%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Their combined hard-court game averages sit above the line, helped by tiebreaks and long sets.
- Lazaro averages 24.33 games per hard match
- Tian averages 20.25 games per hard match
- Both players have set averages near 10-11 games
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 20.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.60
The read
Both players' opening sets are tight, averaging at or above the line.
- Lazaro's opening sets average 11.0 games
- Tian's opening sets average 9.5 games
- Neither player won more than one of their tracked opening sets
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance56%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets are her better phase in this sample, and the ranking gap supports her in this set.
- Her hard-court second-set record is 2-1
- Her second sets average 5.0 games won to 6.0 lost
- Tian's hard-court second-set record is 2-2
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonAndrea Lazaro GarciaEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players start slowly, but the ranking gap points to Lazaro taking the opening set slightly more often.
- Her hard-court first-set record is 1-2
- Her first sets average 5.33 games won to 5.67 lost
- Tian's hard-court first-set record is 1-3
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostAndrea Lazaro GarciaEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Most recorded hard-court matches between these two profiles finished in two sets.
- Four of seven combined hard-court scorelines were straight sets
- Lazaro's hard scorelines include one 2-0 and one 0-2
- Tian's hard scorelines include two 0-2s and one 2-0
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance54%

Andrea Lazaro Garcia

9W 6L

6-3 2-6 6-4#279Joelle Steur

7-6(2) 6-3#264Ane Mintegi Del Olmo

6-2 6-2#373Carlota Martinez Cirez

6-0 6-3#176Anastasiia Sobolieva

6-3 6-1#228Angela Fita Boluda

7-5 6-1#178Polina Iatcenko

5-7 7-6(6) 6-1#171Mai Hontama

6-3 7-6(3)#148Elina Avanesyan

3-6 6-0 6-4#277Aurora Zantedeschi

7-6(5) 5-4 ret.#313Chloe Paquet

6-3 6-3#224Laura Pigossi

0-6 6-3 6-4#200Nadia Podoroska

6-3 7-5#475Zhibek Kulambayeva

6-2 6-7(5) 7-5#81Alina Korneeva

6-3 6-4#229Nuria Brancaccio

Tian Jialin

8W 7L

7-6(5) 7-6(2)#532Carmen Gallardo Guevara

3-6 6-2 6-0#709Alba Rey Garcia

6-2 6-1—Claudia Cairols Aparicio

6-4 6-0—Esther Lopez Alcaraz

6-2 5-7 7-6(5)#893Katherine Hui

6-2 6-3#895Jenna Defalco

6-4 6-4#772Kali Supova

6-4 6-7(5) 6-1—Tea Kovacevic

6-4 6-2—Helena Stevic

3-6 6-3 7-5—Dusica Popovski

6-3 4-6 6-3—Gala Ivanovic

6-1 6-2—Nadja Mladenovic

6-1 6-4#884Anika Jaskova

2-1 ret.#880Julia Stamatova

6-2 4-6 6-3#829Laetitia Pulchartova

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

AGAndrea Lazaro GarciaGarcia

Last 15

2–6

9 core stats · 1 even

Tian JialinJialinTJ

Tian Jialin carries the stronger recent form — Andrea Lazaro Garcia's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1562.4%+6.0pp56.4%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1558.5%+4.5pp63.0%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1545.0%+4.2pp49.2%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/150.6+0.51.1

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/155.02.6 fewer2.4

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1546.8%—47.0%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1546.4%+8.3pp54.7%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1552.7%+3.7pp49.0%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1550.2%+1.8pp52.0%

Serve · 1–4

62.4%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+6.0pp56.4%

58.5%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+4.5pp63.0%

45.0%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+4.2pp49.2%

0.6Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+0.51.1

5.0Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/152.6 fewer2.4

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

46.8%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15—47.0%

Pressure · 1–1

46.4%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+8.3pp54.7%

52.7%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+3.7pp49.0%

Points · 0–1

50.2%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+1.8pp52.0%

Andrea Lazaro Garcia

Tian Jialin

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 8.5

Over 9.5

Over 2.5

Tian Jialin

Result1 of 1 landed

Games5 of 6 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Andrea Lazaro Garcia

Tian Jialin

Stat Battle