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Predictions graded

Alexandre Reco #882France2Patrick Zahraj #413Germany0

Sets 7-5 · 6-3Mon 28 Sept 2026, 09:16 Predictions gradedQ3I.hard

Predictions3–633%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantagePatrick Zahraj · 469 places

Alexandre Reco

France

French player ranked No. 882 who has competed mainly on the ITF M25 circuit, reaching the semifinal at M25 Nevers in September 2026. No reliable public information was found on his age, career-high ranking or preferred surface.

Current ranking: #882
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Patrick Zahraj

Germany

German player born 17 July 1999. Public ranking records place his singles career high at No. 240 in October 2025; no reliable preferred-surface profile was found.

Current ranking: #413
Peak ranking: #240 · 2025
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Sep 2026, 23:08 · Europe/Bucharest

Zahraj arrives 368 ranking places higher and is the likelier winner of this qualifying decider, but his 1.36 price asks him to win far more often than his form suggests.

Reco has taken four of his last six and won 8 of 14 opening sets, and the 2.9 on him is the one price with something behind it.

Context

This is the final qualifying round at Mouilleron-le-Captif, so the winner moves into the Challenger main draw while the loser leaves with only an opening qualifying win. Both players sit outside the top 500, which makes a main-draw place the tangible prize rather than ranking points alone. The match is placed on Court Central, the event's principal court, giving it more visibility than an outside-court qualifier.
- The Mouilleron-le-Captif Challenger lists Reco vs Zahraj as Men's Singles Qualifying Round 2 on Court Central, scheduled for 28 September 2026.
ConfirmedSources checked 27 Sep 2026, 23:07 · Europe/BucharestOpen de Vendée match pagewww.tennis.com · 27 Sep 2026
Zahraj arrives at Mouilleron-le-Captif a week after missing out on a main-draw place at the same qualifying stage in Saint-Tropez, where Murphy Cassone, No. 318, beat him 6-2 7-5. This is therefore a second consecutive Challenger qualifying decider for Zahraj, with a main-draw place again the reward for winning. The defeat came against a higher-ranked opponent, so it is context on the standard Zahraj is being measured against rather than a direct pointer to this match.
- Murphy Cassone, No. 318, beat Patrick Zahraj 6-2 7-5 in the Saint-Tropez Challenger qualifying and moved into the main draw.
ConfirmedSources checked 27 Sep 2026, 23:07 · Europe/Bucharest
Reco, ranked No. 882, has won four of his last six completed matches on hard courts.
Boulais is the highest-ranked opponent Reco has beaten in the tracked sample, which runs from 23 June to 27 September and covers 14 completed matches. For comparison, Zahraj's best wins in his own 10-match sample came over No. 360 Mathys Erhard and No. 460 Karl Poling. It is a single result rather than a trend, but it is the clearest sign that Reco's level on this surface sits above his ranking.
- Alexandre Reco beat Justin Boulais, ATP No. 418, 6-4 6-4 on 27 September 2026, one of 14 completed hard-court matches in his tracked sample.
Zahraj, ranked No. 514, has gone 6-4 across 10 completed hard-court matches from 25 August to 27 September.
Erhard at No. 360 is a better-ranked opponent than anyone Reco has beaten in his window, which supports Zahraj holding the higher current level. The match also went the distance, showing he can close out a tight third set on this surface. Against that, it was one of only three three-set matches in his sample of 10, and his qualifying exit to No. 318 Murphy Cassone on 21 September came in straight sets.
- Patrick Zahraj beat Mathys Erhard, ATP No. 360, 4-6 7-5 7-6 on 20 September 2026 in a completed hard-court match.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Zahraj sits nearly 370 ranking places higher and has been beating better-ranked opponents on hard courts than Reco has.
- Zahraj is ranked No. 514 against Reco's No. 882
- Zahraj is 6-4 in 10 hard-court matches tracked; Reco is 7-7 in 14
- Zahraj's recent wins came over No. 360 Erhard and No. 460 Poling; Reco's best win was over No. 418 Boulais
- Both lost in straight sets to No. 712 Samir Banerjee in their most recent completed loss
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostPatrick ZahrajEstimated chance60%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Average opening sets for both players fall at or below the line.
- Reco's first sets average 9.29 total games across 14 matches
- Zahraj's first sets average 9.5 total games across 10 matches
- Neither player has a first-set tiebreak count above one
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Most of these matches finish in two sets, which keeps the expected total around or just under the line.
- Combined average match total across the two players is about 21.3 games
- Reco's 14 hard-court matches average 20.8 games
- Three-set matches make up roughly a quarter of the combined sample
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 21.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have run slightly longer than first sets for both players, putting the average just above the line.
- Reco's second sets average 9.64 games; Zahraj's average 9.8
- Zahraj's second sets average 5.0 games won against 4.8 lost
- Combined second-set average is about 9.7 games
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set outcomes dominate both players' hard-court records, and neither habitually extends matches.
- 21 of 24 combined tracked hard-court matches finished in two sets
- Reco has six 2-0 wins and five 0-2 losses among 14 matches
- Zahraj has three 2-0 wins and four 0-2 losses among 10 matches
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance74%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second-set records are level, but the overall match advantage points slightly to Zahraj in the middle set.
- Zahraj has split second sets 5-5; Reco has split his 7-7
- Zahraj's second sets average 5.0-4.8 games, Reco's 4.8-4.9
- Zahraj wins 60 percent of these matches overall, which supports a second-set lean
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostPatrick ZahrajEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Zahraj is the better-ranked player, though his own first-set record is the weaker of the two.
- Reco has won 8 of 14 first sets, Zahraj 4 of 10
- Reco's first sets average 5.0-4.3 games, Zahraj's 4.6-4.9
- Zahraj has beaten higher-ranked opposition than Reco's typical opponent
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostPatrick ZahrajEstimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Breaks of serve have been common in these players' recent matches, keeping sets short of tiebreaks.
- Tiebreak matches: 2 of 14 for Reco and 1 of 10 for Zahraj
- Reco's set totals average 9.3 and 9.6 games
- Zahraj has no first-set or second-set tiebreaks in the tracked sample
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance82%

Previous match context available

Alexandre Reco

8W 7L

6-4 6-4#418Justin Boulais

7-6(2) 6-3#560Aidan Mchugh

6-4 3-6 6-1#836Etienne Donnet

6-2 6-2—Damien Clerc

6-2 6-2—Melvin Kumar

6-4 6-3#712Samir Banerjee

6-2 7-5#294Raphael Perot

6-4 6-2#735Benjamin Pietri

7-5 7-5#680Mae Malige

2-6 6-1 6-4—Rahul Dhokia

6-4 7-5#851Julio Cesar Porras

6-4 2-0 ret.—Loan Lestir

6-0 7-6(4)—Zach Stephens

6-3 3-6 6-3#1765Luc Fomba

6-2 6-3#186Diego Dedura

Patrick Zahraj

7W 8L

3-6 6-3 6-2#460Karl Poling 6-2 7-5#318Murphy Cassone 4-6 7-5 7-6(9)#360Mathys Erhard

6-4 6-4#620Maxime Janvier

7-5 6-3#750Joshua Sheehy

7-5 6-3#712Samir Banerjee

6-2 6-4—Mickael Kaouk

6-3 5-7 6-0—Sven Corbinais

6-2 6-1—Matisse Martin

6-3 6-2#709Patrick Brady

7-6(4) 6-1#259Mika Brunold

3-6 6-4 2-0 ret.—Andrin Casanova

7-5 4-6 7-6(5)#805Vincent Marysko

7-5 6-4#294Raphael Perot

5-7 6-4 6-4#294Raphael Perot

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

ARAlexandre RecoReco

Last 15

2–5

9 core stats · 2 even

Patrick ZahrajZahrajPZ

Patrick Zahraj carries the stronger recent form — Alexandre Reco's route runs through return.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In55.6%+9.0pp64.6%

1st Serve Won67.6%+2.3pp69.9%

2nd Serve Won49.2%—49.6%

Aces / Match1.9+1.73.6

Double Faults / Match3.30.7 fewer4.0

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won42.8%+4.5pp38.3%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted40.5%+3.4pp43.9%

Break Pts Saved57.9%+4.7pp62.6%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won51.0%—50.3%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

55.6%1st Serve In+9.0pp64.6%

67.6%1st Serve Won+2.3pp69.9%

49.2%2nd Serve Won—49.6%

1.9Aces / Match+1.73.6

3.3Double Faults / Match0.7 fewer4.0

Return · 1–0

42.8%Return Pts Won+4.5pp38.3%

Pressure · 0–2

40.5%Break Pts Converted+3.4pp43.9%

57.9%Break Pts Saved+4.7pp62.6%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

51.0%Total Pts Won—50.3%