FranceMouilleron-Le-Captif - FranceFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Patrick Zahraj #413Germany2Karl Poling #491United States1

Sets 3-6 · 6-3 · 6-2Sun 27 Sept 2026, 08:08 Predictions gradedQ1I.hard

Predictions3–633%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantagePatrick Zahraj · 78 places

Patrick Zahraj

Germany

German player born 17 July 1999. Public ranking records place his singles career high at No. 240 in October 2025; no reliable preferred-surface profile was found.

Current ranking: #413
Peak ranking: #240 · 2025
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Karl Poling

United States

Poling is a left-handed American player, born 4 August 1999. Public profile sources list a career-best singles ranking of No. 487; no reliable current injury, comeback, or decline signal surfaced.

Current ranking: #491
Peak ranking: #487
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Sep 2026, 02:10 · Europe/Bucharest

The tension is a narrow ranking gap, 460 against 514, with Poling coming off a match point against world No.

84 Titouan Droguet on 22 September. Poling is the likelier winner. Zahraj won their only meeting 7-6 6-4 in March 2026, but his hard-court matches have been short. Poling at 2.30 is the one quoted price worth backing; Zahraj at 1.55 asks for far more than his record supports.

Context

Poling, No. 460, won the opening set against the Saint-Tropez top seed and world No. 84 Titouan Droguet and held a match point before losing the deciding tiebreak; Droguet had to come from 1-4 down to survive. That is the clearest recent evidence that Poling's hard-court level sits far above his ranking, and it came five days before this fixture. The cost is workload: he played qualifying and the main-draw first round on consecutive days, three matches in three days, so his recent court time is heavier than Zahraj's. A single near-upset against a higher-ranked opponent is not proof he reproduces the level in a different event.
- Poling won the opening set on a tiebreak before losing 4-6 6-7(4) to top seed Titouan Droguet in the Saint-Tropez first round .
- Droguet came from 1-4 down and saved a match point to survive, then met Borna Gojo in the second round.
- Poling had lost the Saint-Tropez qualifying final to Moez Echargui 6-4 7-6(8), one day before the main-draw match.
ConfirmedSources checked 27 Sep 2026, 02:08 · Europe/Bucharest
Zahraj won their semi-final at Morelia 7-6 6-4, taking the opening set on a tiebreak and then a single break in the second. It is the only documented meeting between the two and therefore the only direct evidence of how their games fit together. With one match as the entire sample it is a reference point for the matchup rather than an established pattern, and both players' form has moved on since.
- Zahraj defeated Poling 7-6 6-4 in a Morelia semi-final .
- No other meeting between the two appears in the available record.
ConfirmedSources checked 27 Sep 2026, 02:08 · Europe/BucharestRotowire match statswww.rotowire.com · 22 Mar 2026
Zahraj's route to this event ran through two weeks of French hard-court Challenger qualifying: a 6-4 6-4 loss to Maxime Janvier at Rennes, then a 7-6(9) deciding-set qualifying win over Mathys Erhard at Saint-Tropez before Murphy Cassone beat him 6-2 7-5 in the final qualifying round. He arrives with match sharpness but no main-draw win behind him. Winning a 7-6(9) set shows he can close long sets at this level, while the straightforward defeat that followed bounds how much that says about his current form.
- Zahraj won 4-6 7-5 7-6(9) against Mathys Erhard in Saint-Tropez qualifying .
- Murphy Cassone beat Zahraj 6-2 7-5 in the qualifying final to take the main-draw place.
- Zahraj had lost his Rennes qualifying match to Maxime Janvier 6-4 6-4 .
ConfirmedSources checked 27 Sep 2026, 02:08 · Europe/Bucharest
Mouilleron-le-Captif is a 75-level indoor hard-court Challenger, one tier below the 100-level event at Rennes and the 125-level event at Saint-Tropez that both men played in the previous two weeks, so the standard of the field drops for this fixture. It is a third consecutive week of hard-court Challenger tennis in France for both players. The main draw was released with first-round play starting the next day, placing this match at the start of the week. David Goffin is in the draw and was paired with a French opponent in the first round, framing the top of the field, though he is not part of this fixture.
- Mouilleron-le-Captif is listed as an ATP Challenger 75 on indoor hard courts for week 39 of the 2026 season.
- The 2026 main draw and qualifying draw were published .
- David Goffin is in the field and was paired with a French opponent in the first round.
ConfirmedSources checked 27 Sep 2026, 02:08 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.30
The read
Poling sits higher in the rankings, has a fuller hard-court record and took a top-100 opponent to a match point in his most recent outing.
- Poling is ranked 460, Zahraj 514
- Poling's latest match: 7-6 4-6 6-7 loss to world No. 84 Titouan Droguet, holding a match point
- Poling on hard: 49.9% total points won, 60.2% break points saved over 15 matches
- Only known meeting: Zahraj won 7-6 6-4 at Morelia
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostKarl PolingEstimated chance54%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' second sets average close to or above ten games, making the over the more likely side.
- Poling's second sets average 10.5 games with 4 tiebreaks in 15
- Zahraj's second sets average 9.9 games
- Poling's second-set games are split 5.27 to 5.27
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance59%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Neither player's first sets end quickly often, and Poling's first sets regularly reach 6-4 or a tiebreak.
- Poling's first sets average 10.4 games with 4 tiebreaks in 15
- Zahraj's first sets average 9.6 games with no tiebreaks in 9
- Only a 6-3 or shorter set finishes under this line
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Poling's matches regularly extend past 24 games while Zahraj's run shorter, leaving the line close to the middle.
- Poling's hard-court matches average 26.8 total games (15 matches)
- Zahraj's hard-court matches average 21.6 total games (9 matches)
- Combined tracked average is about 24.8 games
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 24.5Estimated chance51%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set finishes are the more common outcome across both players' hard-court records, especially Zahraj's.
- Zahraj's hard-court scorelines: 2-0 in three, 0-2 in four, 2-1 in two
- Poling's hard-court scorelines: 2-0 in four, 0-2 in three, 2-1 in three, 1-2 in five
- Combined three-set rate is 10 of 24 tracked matches
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Poling starts sets slightly more strongly than Zahraj on this surface and takes the first set more often than not.
- Poling has won the opening set in 8 of 15 hard-court matches
- Zahraj has won the opening set in 4 of 9 hard-court matches
- Poling's set-one games average is 5.33 won against 5.07 lost
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonKarl PolingEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Poling's second-set record mirrors his first-set record and is better than Zahraj's over a larger sample.
- Poling has won 8 of 15 second sets on hard courts
- Zahraj has won 4 of 9 second sets on hard courts
- Poling's second-set games average is 5.27 won and 5.27 lost
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostKarl PolingEstimated chance54%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Zahraj's matches have produced very few tiebreaks, which offsets Poling's frequent tiebreak sets.
- One of Zahraj's nine hard-court matches featured a tiebreak
- Eight of Poling's 15 hard-court matches featured at least one tiebreak
- Combined tiebreak rate across tracked matches is 9 of 24
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance52%

Previous match context available

Patrick Zahraj

7W 8L

6-2 7-5#318Murphy Cassone 4-6 7-5 7-6(9)#360Mathys Erhard

6-4 6-4#620Maxime Janvier

7-5 6-3#750Joshua Sheehy

7-5 6-3#712Samir Banerjee

6-2 6-4—Mickael Kaouk

6-3 5-7 6-0—Sven Corbinais

6-2 6-1—Matisse Martin

6-3 6-2#709Patrick Brady

7-6(4) 6-1#259Mika Brunold

3-6 6-4 2-0 ret.—Andrin Casanova

7-5 4-6 7-6(5)#805Vincent Marysko

7-5 6-4#294Raphael Perot

5-7 6-4 6-4#294Raphael Perot

6-7(2) 6-3 6-2#448Yannik Kelm

Karl Poling

7W 8L

6-7(6) 6-4 7-6(4)#84Titouan Droguet

6-4 7-6(8)#378Moez Echargui 6-2 6-1#521Yanis Ghazouani Durand

7-6(5) 6-7(6) 7-6(5)#816Nikola Slavic

6-4 6-3#688Thomas Fancutt

3-6 6-3 6-2#134Stefanos Sakellaridis

5-7 7-6(5) 6-4#762Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes

6-4 4-6 7-6(4)—Nikita Filin

7-6(1) 6-4#866Axel Nefve

3-6 7-6(7) 6-1#688Thomas Fancutt

6-4 6-4#850Jesse Flores

6-2 6-4#628Aidan Kim

3-6 6-3 7-5#337Tyler Zink

6-3 6-4#634Kokoro Isomura

7-6(5) 5-7 7-5#447Kenta Miyoshi

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

PZPatrick ZahrajZahraj

Last 15

5–3

9 core stats · 1 even

Karl PolingPolingKP

Patrick Zahraj carries the stronger recent form — Karl Poling's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In65.2%+4.4pp69.6%

1st Serve Won69.5%+3.4pp66.1%

2nd Serve Won49.5%+4.9pp54.4%

Aces / Match3.5+1.12.4

Double Faults / Match4.31.7 fewer2.6

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won38.2%+1.0pp37.2%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted44.0%+10.7pp33.3%

Break Pts Saved61.9%+1.7pp60.2%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won50.3%—49.9%

Serve · 2–3

65.2%1st Serve In+4.4pp69.6%

69.5%1st Serve Won+3.4pp66.1%

49.5%2nd Serve Won+4.9pp54.4%

3.5Aces / Match+1.12.4

4.3Double Faults / Match1.7 fewer2.6

Return · 1–0

38.2%Return Pts Won+1.0pp37.2%

Pressure · 2–0

44.0%Break Pts Converted+10.7pp33.3%

61.9%Break Pts Saved+1.7pp60.2%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

50.3%Total Pts Won—49.9%