PortugalPorto - PortugalFinished

Predictions graded

Francisco Rocha #803Portugal1Lui Maxted #403United Kingdom2

Sets 6-4 · 3-6 · 1-6Sun 27 Sept 2026, 17:46 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions4–544%

Edges1–150%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageLui Maxted · 400 places

Francisco Rocha

Portugal

Reached a career-best No. 675 in July 2025. Current ATP singles ranking is No. 803.

Current ranking: #803
Peak ranking: #675 · 2025
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Lui Maxted

United Kingdom

The British player reached a reported career-high singles ranking of No. 392 in March 2026. No reliable preferred-surface profile was found in the specified searches.

Current ranking: #403
Peak ranking: #392 · 2026
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Sep 2026, 15:33 · Europe/Bucharest

Lui Maxted, No. 394, meets Portugal's Francisco Rocha, No. 854, in Porto qualifying, and the ranking gap plus Maxted's 10-of-14 first-set record make him the likelier winner.

The counterweight: Maxted lost his most recent match and his second sets have been his weaker phase. Maxted at 1.3, and at 1.4 to win the opening set, and Rocha at 2.75 for the first set, all ask more than the records support - no quoted price is worth taking.

Context

Maxted is the higher-ranked player here at No. 394 against No. 854, and he has been the seeded entrant at M25 level in Portugal in each of the past two weeks, winning matches in Sintra and Setúbal before going out in the quarter-finals at both. His Setúbal defeat came against the top seed Iñaki Montes-de la Torre, ranked No. 226, and he took the second-set tie-break to force a decider. A 125-level Challenger in Porto is a step above the opposition he has been beating, so the ranking gap and his week-to-week seeding are the support for his position rather than the margin of his recent wins.
- Maxted was the sixth seed at the M25 in Setúbal in the week before this match.
- He beat Blu Baker and Tyler Stice in straight sets, then lost to top seed Iñaki Montes-de la Torre in the quarter-finals.
- He reached the quarter-finals at the M25 in Sintra in mid-September 2026.
ReportedSources checked 27 Sep 2026, 15:32 · Europe/Bucharest
Maxted is the higher-ranked player at No. 394 and the sharper starter in this pairing, having taken 10 of his 14 opening sets in the same window.
The split is the most telling thing in his record: the opening set is the phase where he has been strongest and it is the phase where Rocha has been weakest, winning 5 of 12 first sets. His second-set numbers are the counterweight, 6-8 in second sets with a losing games margin, so a longer match is not where he has been most comfortable. The 14-match sample excludes one retired match and covers only 7 August to 25 September 2026, so it describes recent weeks rather than a season.
- Maxted won 10 of 14 first sets in completed hard-court matches between 7 August and 25 September 2026.
- He won 6 of 14 second sets in the same sample, with a 4.71 to 5.57 games margin in set two.
- His first-set games average was 5.29 won to 4.29 lost.
- One retired match was excluded from the 14-match aggregate.
Rocha, 26, is the home entrant at No. 854 and the older brother of Portugal's Henrique Rocha, and he spent hitting on the Porto courts with Grigor Dimitrov, the 35-year-old former world No. 3 who holds the headline wildcard at this Challenger 125. It puts him on site and on the tournament courts the day before his opening singles match. A practice session establishes place and preparation only; it says nothing about form, fitness or how he will handle the step up in field.
- Francisco Rocha practised with Grigor Dimitrov in Porto, the day before this match.
- His younger brother Henrique Rocha had trained with Dimitrov at the same venue the previous day.
ReportedSources checked 27 Sep 2026, 15:32 · Europe/Bucharest
This fixture sits at a 125-level Challenger, a step above the M25 events both players have contested in Portugal over the same period, in a draw headed by Dimitrov on a wildcard and containing five top-100 players. The tournament also ran a WTA 125 edition that finished, the day this men's main draw opens, so the week begins on the back of a higher-tier event. Both players are ranked outside the top 300 and arrived from the Portuguese ITF circuit, so the step up in field strength applies equally to each side and does not separate them.
- The Eupago Porto Open is an ATP Challenger 125 in Porto running from to 4 October 2026.
- The field includes Grigor Dimitrov on a wildcard and five top-100 players alongside a strong Portuguese group.
- The same tournament staged a WTA 125 edition in Porto that concluded .
ReportedSources checked 27 Sep 2026, 15:32 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Lui Maxted

1.30fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 76.9%

−8.9ppshort

Maxted sits far higher in the rankings and has the better hard-court record over this stretch, while Rocha has lost four of his last six completed matches.

Set 1 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Lui Maxted

1.40fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 71.4%

−6.4ppshort

Maxted has been the stronger starter on this surface, winning first sets far more often than he loses them while Rocha has a losing first-set record.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Maxted sits far higher in the rankings and has the better hard-court record over this stretch, while Rocha has lost four of his last six completed matches.
- Maxted ranked 394 against Rocha at 854
- Hard-court window: Maxted 8-6, Rocha 5-7
- Maxted took 10 of 14 first sets; Rocha 5 of 12
- Rocha lost his latest match 0-2 to world No. 803
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonLui MaxtedEstimated chance68%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' matches sit right on the line, but since most of them finish in straight sets the median total sits just below the average.
- Rocha's hard-court matches average 22.67 total games
- Maxted's hard-court matches average 22.71 total games
- Only about 3 in 10 of these matches went to three sets
- Two-set matches in this sample average around 20 games
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 22.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have run slightly longer for both players, with Maxted's average above ten games.
- Rocha averages 9.67 games in second sets
- Maxted averages 10.29 games in second sets
- Maxted had 3 second-set tiebreaks in 14 matches
- Rocha had 2 second-set tiebreaks in 12 matches
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First-set games sit essentially on the line for both players, slightly favouring the over.
- Rocha averages 9.67 games in first sets
- Maxted averages 9.57 games in first sets
- Rocha had 2 first-set tiebreaks in 12 matches
- Maxted had 1 first-set tiebreak in 14 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set finishes are clearly the norm for both players on this surface, with only about three in ten going the distance.
- Rocha played three sets in 4 of 12 hard-court matches
- Maxted played three sets in 4 of 14 hard-court matches
- Rocha's average match lasted 2.33 sets
- Maxted's average match lasted 2.29 sets
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Maxted has been the stronger starter on this surface, winning first sets far more often than he loses them while Rocha has a losing first-set record.
- Maxted won 10 of 14 first sets on hard courts
- Rocha won 5 of 12 first sets
- Maxted averages 5.29 games won to 4.29 lost in set one
- Rocha averages 4.58 games won to 5.08 lost in set one
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostLui MaxtedEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Maxted is the better player overall but his second sets have been his weaker ones, so this market is much closer than the match-winner picture.
- Maxted won 6 of 14 second sets on hard courts
- Rocha won 7 of 12 second sets
- Maxted averages 4.71 games won to 5.57 lost in set two
- Rocha averages 5.08 games won to 4.58 lost in set two
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonLui MaxtedEstimated chance56%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Around two-thirds of both players' recent matches finished without a tiebreak.
- Rocha had a tiebreak in 4 of 12 hard-court matches
- Maxted had a tiebreak in 5 of 14 hard-court matches
- Rocha's first-set tiebreaks: 2 of 12
- Maxted's second-set tiebreaks: 3 of 14
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance65%

Francisco Rocha

6W 9L

6-2 6-2#803Michael Agwi

6-3 6-2—Salvador Monteiro

6-1 7-5#735Benjamin Pietri

6-2 6-2#721Jack Anthrop

6-3 6-4—Joao Dinis Silva

6-2 6-4—Julien Penzlin

6-4 7-5#332Tiago Pereira

7-6(5) 6-3#678Tiago Cacao

6-4 6-4#175Gonzalo Bueno

6-4 6-7(8) 6-2#678Tiago Cacao

7-5 6-3—Lucas Marionneau

6-7(1) 6-1 7-6(5)—Matisse Farzam

6-3 3-6 7-5#459Emile Hudd

4-6 7-6(8) 6-1#295Mert Alkaya

4-2 ret.#369Eliakim Coulibaly

Lui Maxted

9W 6L

3-6 7-6(5) 6-2#226Inaki Montes-De La Torre

6-3 7-5#867Tyler Stice

6-2 7-6(5)#899Blu Baker

7-6(5) 6-2#528Fausto Tabacco

6-4 6-4—Julien Penzlin

3-3 ret.#651Goncalo Marques

6-1 6-1#512Adrian Boitan

1-6 6-3 7-6(2)#297Johannus Monday

6-3 6-3#496Anton Shepp

6-3 6-2#325Lucas Poullain

7-5 6-4#512Adrian Boitan

6-4 4-6 7-5#709Patrick Brady

7-5 7-6(1)#276Matteo Martineau

6-1 7-5#262Charles Broom

7-5 4-6 6-1—Mark Ceban

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

FRFrancisco RochaRocha

Last 15

1–6

9 core stats · 2 even

Lui MaxtedMaxtedLM

Lui Maxted carries the stronger recent form — Francisco Rocha's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–2 · 2 even

1st Serve In56.5%+12.3pp68.8%

1st Serve Won68.8%+2.4pp66.4%

2nd Serve Won47.9%—47.3%

Aces / Match3.1—3.3

Double Faults / Match3.71.1 fewer2.6

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won37.3%+2.6pp39.9%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted39.8%+8.0pp47.8%

Break Pts Saved53.8%+4.3pp58.1%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won48.7%+1.5pp50.2%

Serve · 1–2 · 2 even

56.5%1st Serve In+12.3pp68.8%

68.8%1st Serve Won+2.4pp66.4%

47.9%2nd Serve Won—47.3%

3.1Aces / Match—3.3

3.7Double Faults / Match1.1 fewer2.6

Return · 0–1

37.3%Return Pts Won+2.6pp39.9%

Pressure · 0–2

39.8%Break Pts Converted+8.0pp47.8%

53.8%Break Pts Saved+4.3pp58.1%

Points · 0–1

48.7%Total Pts Won+1.5pp50.2%