Filip Misolic #530Austria00 – 2Oleksandr Ovcharenko #617Ukraine2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Ovcharenko has the only sustained clay form in the file, while Misolic has lost three of five recent clay matches.

• Ovcharenko is 10-5 in 15 clay matches, winning 54.8% of games (178-147) and 52.3% of points.
• He converted 43.5% of break points and saved 51.5% on clay.
• Misolic is 3-11 across his last 14 tracked matches and 2-3 on clay since early September.
• Misolic's two clay wins this month came against opponents ranked 667 and 239.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Ovcharenko's wins on this surface tend to be comfortable, so a three-game winning margin is a realistic outcome.

• Ovcharenko's clay games read 178 won and 147 lost, a margin of +31 over 15 matches (about +2 per match).
• His four clay wins since late August came by margins of +6, +5, +6 and +7 games.
• Misolic's five clay matches are level on games at 62-61.
• Ovcharenko's two clay defeats this month were by -6 and -5 games.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Misolic's recent clay matches have rarely been one-sided on games, so a five-game losing margin is less likely than not.

• Misolic's recent clay matches are level on games at 62-61.
• Three of his five clay matches this month went the distance.
• Ovcharenko's average margin over 15 clay matches is only about +2 games.
• Ovcharenko lost two of his last six clay matches by five and six games.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Misolic's recent clay matches have run long, and he frequently reaches a deciding set, which pushes the total up.

• Misolic's five clay matches averaged 24.6 total games.
• Ovcharenko's 15 clay matches averaged 21.7 total games.
• Misolic's set 1 and set 2 each averaged 9.6 games.
• Three of Misolic's five clay matches went to a third set.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players' opening sets average just above the line, so a 6-4 or longer first set is slightly more likely than not.

• Misolic's first sets averaged 9.6 games on clay.
• Ovcharenko's first sets averaged 9.7 games on clay.
• Only 3 of Ovcharenko's 15 first sets reached a tiebreak.
• Misolic has not played a first-set tiebreak in five clay matches.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Most of Ovcharenko's winning performances this sample cleared a four-game margin, though three-set wins often do not.

• Ovcharenko's recent clay wins came by +6 (18-12), +5 (13-8), +6 (12-6) and +7 (12-5) games.
• His overall clay margin is +31 games over 15 matches.
• Seven of his ten clay wins this sample were in straight sets.
• Misolic's three recent clay defeats were all three-setters, where margins compress.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Ovcharenko's second-set record on clay is clearly positive across a reasonable sample.

• Ovcharenko has won the second set in 10 of 15 clay matches.
• He averages 5.3 second-set games won and 4.2 lost.
• Misolic is 4-1 in second sets across five clay matches.
• Misolic averages 6.0 second-set games won and 3.6 lost.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Ovcharenko's first-set record and game averages on clay are better than Misolic's, though both are close to even.

• Ovcharenko has won the first set in 8 of his 15 clay matches.
• He averages 5.2 games won and 4.5 lost in first sets on clay.
• Misolic has won the first set in 3 of 5 clay matches.
• Misolic averages 4.6 first-set games won and 5.0 lost.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Ovcharenko's clay matches end in straight sets about three times in four, which favours a two-set finish.

• Ovcharenko's 15 clay matches averaged 2.27 sets, with 11 of 15 ending in straight sets.
• His clay scorelines were 2-0 seven times and 0-2 four times.
• Misolic's five clay matches averaged 2.6 sets.
• All three of Misolic's clay defeats this month were 1-2.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Tiebreaks have been uncommon in both players' recent clay matches because breaks of serve are frequent.

• Only 5 of Ovcharenko's 15 clay matches contained a tiebreak.
• Only 1 of Misolic's 5 clay matches contained a tiebreak.
• Ovcharenko's second-serve points won is 47.5% on clay.
• Misolic's third-set appearances this month ended without a first-set tiebreak.