ATP ChengduFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Alejandro Tabilo #260Adrian Mannarino #67France2

Sets 4-6 · 4-6Fri 25 Sept 2026, 06:37 Predictions gradedIndoor

Predictions0–10%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAlejandro Tabilo · 41 places

Alejandro Tabilo

Reached career-high No. 19 in July 2024 and lists clay as his preferred surface. The left-hander has also won ATP titles on hard and grass.

Current ranking: #26
Peak ranking: #19 · 2024
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Left handed
Height: 188 cm

Adrian Mannarino

France

Mannarino, 38, is the left-hander in this matchup and reached career-high No. 17 in January 2024. He has said he enjoys playing on all surfaces.

Current ranking: #67
Peak ranking: #17 · 2024
Current age: 38
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Sep 2026, 15:15 · Europe/Bucharest

Tabilo begins his Chengdu title defence in the second round against Mannarino, who has already won here this week while the champion arrives from a Davis Cup trip to Santiago.

Tabilo's higher ranking, heavier serve and record at this event make him the likely winner. At 1.65 the Tabilo price is the one worth backing; 2.25 on Mannarino asks more than his 5-10 recent run justifies.

Context

Tabilo won the Chengdu title in 2025 and the 250 ranking points from it were removed in the update, dropping him out of the top 30 to No. 32, so only another deep run here replaces them. He begins the defence in the second round after a bye, against an opponent who has already played and won on the same courts. That bye also means he reaches this match without a competitive ball struck in Chengdu this week, so the usual freshness edge of a seeded start is not guaranteed.
- Tabilo is the reigning Chengdu Open champion, having won the 2025 edition of the event.
- He enters the 2026 draw in the second round and meets the winner of the first-round match between Mannarino and Juncheng Shang.
- The 250 ranking points from that Chengdu title came off in the update, moving him from No. 26 to No. 32.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 15:14 · Europe/Bucharest
Mannarino's opening match turned on a long first-set tiebreak in which he faced set points and finally took it 11-9 before closing out 7-6(9) 6-2. That gives him a completed match on the Chengdu courts and a place in the second round against the defending champion, while Tabilo arrives on a bye. The counterpoint is that the win came over a home wild card in the first round, and one two-set result does not establish that his weak second half of the season has changed.
- Mannarino beat Juncheng Shang 7-6(9) 6-2 in the first round of the Chengdu Open .
- Shang held set points in the long first-set tiebreak before Mannarino took it.
- The win put Mannarino into the second round against Tabilo.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 15:14 · Europe/Bucharest
Tabilo's last competitive appearance before Chengdu came in Chile's Davis Cup tie against Spain in Santiago, a 4-0 defeat in which he dropped the doubles rubber alongside Tomás Barrios. The tie finished on 20 September 2026, leaving a long trip to Chengdu and no tour-level match between the US Open and this event. It is a preparation condition rather than a fitness signal: he still arrives as the defending champion and starts with a bye that absorbs part of the turnaround.
- Chile lost their Davis Cup tie in Santiago against Spain 4-0 on 19-20 September 2026.
- Tabilo and Tomás Barrios lost the doubles rubber to Pedro Martínez and Jaume Munar.
- Tabilo's next scheduled play is the second round of the Chengdu Open on 25 September 2026.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 15:14 · Europe/Bucharest
Mannarino played the Rennes Challenger the week before Chengdu and lost 6-3 7-5 in the second round to Matisse Bobichon, then ranked No. 566. That result frames the level he brought into this swing and gives his opening win over Shang a low base to build from. The caveat is that a Challenger loss describes his floor rather than how he matches up with a left-handed opponent ranked in the top 35.
- Mannarino lost 6-3 7-5 to Matisse Bobichon in the second round of the Rennes Challenger on 17 September 2026.
- Bobichon was ranked No. 566 for that match.
- Mannarino had won only two of his last seven matches on the main tour going into Chengdu.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 15:14 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Tabilo has the higher ranking, stronger serve numbers and recent title form at this event, while Mannarino has struggled for wins.
- Tabilo is ranked No. 32; Mannarino is No. 78.
- Tabilo is 7-8 in his last 15 matches; Mannarino is 5-10.
- Tabilo has won 75.0% of first-serve points and 7.8 aces per match; Mannarino 70.3% and 2.9.
- Tabilo is the defending Chengdu champion.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAlejandro TabiloEstimated chance68%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Mannarino's low ace rate and the best-of-3 format make a total below 10.5 the more likely outcome.
- Tabilo averages 7.8 aces per match over 14 matches.
- Mannarino averages 2.9 aces per match over 15 matches.
- Their combined average is 10.7 aces per match.
- The match is best-of-3, which lowers expected total compared with longer formats.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 10.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined double-fault average is below the line, and a shorter match would reduce the total further.
- Tabilo averages 2.9 double faults per match over 14 matches.
- Mannarino averages 2.5 double faults per match over 15 matches.
- Their combined average is 5.4 double faults per match.
- The match is best-of-3, limiting opportunities for double faults.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 5.5Estimated chance53%

Alejandro Tabilo

7W 8L

5-7 6-3 6-3#41Daniel Merida Aguilar

6-2 7-6(2) 6-2#2Alexander Zverev

2-6 7-6(4) 7-6(3) 6-2#130Alexei Popyrin

6-3 6-2 6-7(7) 6-3#54Yannick Hanfmann

6-2 6-1#14Rafael Jodar

6-3 6-4#63Jan-Lennard Struff

6-4 7-6(4)#46Hubert Hurkacz

6-7(6) 6-4 6-4#14Rafael Jodar

4-6 7-5 6-4#4Ben Shelton

6-3 7-6(6)#83Terence Atmane

7-6(3) 4-6 6-4#55Tallon Griekspoor

6-4 6-4#354Tiago Torres

6-4 4-6 6-4#25Andrey Rublev

6-4 6-7(5) 6-4#197Lautaro Midon

6-3 7-5 7-5#73Kamil Majchrzak

Adrian Mannarino

5W 10L

6-3 7-5#566Matisse Bobichon

6-2 6-4#374Dan Added

6-3 6-1 6-1#21Alexander Bublik

4-6 3-6 6-3 6-3 6-3#52Thiago Agustin Tirante

6-1 7-6(5)#86Lorenzo Sonego

6-1 6-4#50Denis Shapovalov

7-6(3) 6-4#94Jacob Fearnley

6-4 7-6(3)#34Alex Michelsen

7-5 6-4#13Learner Tien

6-3 3-6 7-6(5)#179Alexis Galarneau

6-2 6-1#204Remy Bertola

6-3 6-2 6-2#9Alex De Minaur

6-2 6-4 6-1#84Titouan Droguet

6-2 6-2#48Nuno Borges

7-6(7) 6-4#36Arthur Fery

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

ATAlejandro TabiloTabilo

Last 15

4–4

9 core stats · 1 even

Adrian MannarinoMannarinoAM

Dead-even recent form — the edges are in serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In14/15 · 15/1562.4%+6.0pp56.4%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/1575.0%+4.7pp70.3%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/1549.5%+2.3pp51.8%

Aces / Match14/15 · 15/157.8+4.92.9

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/152.90.4 fewer2.5

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/1532.8%+3.6pp36.4%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/1536.3%+4.8pp41.1%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/1565.0%+10.4pp54.6%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/1549.4%—48.8%

Serve · 3–2

62.4%1st Serve In14/15 · 15/15+6.0pp56.4%

75.0%1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+4.7pp70.3%

49.5%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+2.3pp51.8%

7.8Aces / Match14/15 · 15/15+4.92.9

2.9Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/150.4 fewer2.5

Return · 0–1

32.8%Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+3.6pp36.4%

Pressure · 1–1

36.3%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/15+4.8pp41.1%

65.0%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/15+10.4pp54.6%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

49.4%Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/15—48.8%