FranceSaint-Tropez - FranceFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Billy Harris #167United Kingdom0Murphy Cassone #307United States2

Sets 6-7 · 4-6Thu 24 Sept 2026, 08:40 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions8–189%

Edges4–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageBilly Harris · 140 places

Billy Harris

United Kingdom

British right-hander born 22 January 1995. His documented career-high singles ranking is No. 101 in September 2024; no reliable current source established a preferred surface or an active fitness issue.

Current ranking: #167
Peak ranking: #101 · 2024
Current age: 31
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Murphy Cassone

United States

Cassone reached a career-high No. 172 on 18 August 2025. Official profile data lists hard as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #307
Peak ranking: #172 · 2025
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Sep 2026, 22:19 · Europe/Bucharest

The tension: a fresh Harris who saved three match points to beat the eighth seed, against a qualifier playing his fourth match in five days.

Cassone's 8-2 hard-court run and 8 of 10 opening sets won make him the slightly likelier winner, though 1.80 on the match is fair rather than generous. Cassone to win the first set at 1.80 is the price with a real edge; 2.75 for a 2-0 win is too short, as is the 1.80 second-set price.

Context

The treatment came roughly a day before this match, and Cassone went on to finish the job in three sets after the match was carried into a second day. An abdominal problem serious enough to need treatment mid-match is the kind of condition that can limit serving and change of direction over a long match, which matters for a player already carrying four matches in five days. Nothing further has been published beyond the complaint itself: there has been no withdrawal, walkover or medical statement, and he completed the win. Because the condition is unresolved rather than confirmed as limiting, it is treated here as a circumstance to follow rather than an established reduction in his level.
- Cassone called for treatment at 5-5 in the first set, with an abdominal issue raised with the chair umpire ().
- The first-round match against Clement Tabur was stopped at that stage and completed, Cassone winning 7-6(6) 4-6 6-3.
ReportedSources checked 23 Sep 2026, 22:17 · Europe/Bucharest
Budkov Kjaer, the eighth seed and world No. 146, led 5-4 in the deciding set with three match points before Harris won the final three games. For a player ranked No. 231 and 130 places below the career-high No. 101 he reached in September 2024, that is the best win by opponent ranking in his recent record. The result is two days old at kickoff, so it is the freshest evidence of his level on this surface rather than proof of a sustained run. The match points come from courtside accounts rather than a published scorecard, so the scoreline is better established than the description of how the deciding set was lost.
- Harris beat eighth seed Nicolai Budkov Kjaer 3-6 6-3 7-5 in the first round at Saint-Tropez ().
- Budkov Kjaer led 5-4 in the deciding set with three match points before Harris won the final three games.
- It is the highest-ranked opponent Harris has beaten in his recent record, with September wins over Grenier, Hara Friend and Budkov Kjaer.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Sep 2026, 22:17 · Europe/Bucharest
Cassone, 24, has played four matches in five days to reach this stage: two qualifying rounds and a first round that ran into a second day. Harris has played once in the same period, so accumulated workload is the clearest asymmetry in the fixture. That cost is partly offset by the quality of the qualifying opposition, with one of the four wins coming against a player ranked No. 514, leaving the win over No. 160 Tabur as the only test at the level of the opponent he now faces. He has won every match so far, so the schedule has not yet produced a loss.
- Cassone beat Patrick Zahraj 6-2 7-5 to enter the main draw at Saint-Tropez, his third qualifying run of 2026 ().
- Cassone beat Clement Tabur 7-6(6) 4-6 6-3 in the first round to set up the match with Harris.
- Cassone also won on 20 September, beating Hugo Car 6-4 6-0, giving him four matches in five days by the time he faces Harris.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Sep 2026, 22:17 · Europe/Bucharest
Cassone's pattern is a fast start on hard courts: eight opening sets won from 10 matches, including a 7-6(6) first set against Clement Tabur here.
Harris has split his own opening sets 6-6 across 12 hard-court matches, so the first set is where their recent records separate most clearly. Cassone's first-round match shows the limit of that pattern — he won the opener 7-6(6), then lost the second 4-6 before taking the third.
- Cassone won 8 of 10 opening sets in completed best-of-three hard-court matches tracked from 3 June to 22 September 2026, averaging 6.0 games won and 4.5 lost, with three tiebreaks.
- That 10-match sample excludes one retired match.
- On 22 September he won the opening set 7-6(6) against Clement Tabur, lost the second 4-6 and won the third 6-3.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Set 2 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Murphy Cassone

1.80fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 55.6%

−0.6ppshort

Cassone's better second-set record on hard makes him slightly more likely to take the second set.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Cassone's stronger hard-court set and match record makes him slightly more likely to win, though Harris's higher ranking and first-round comeback keep it close.
- Cassone is 8-2 on hard courts in his last 10 completed matches, including a 7-6(6) 4-6 6-3 first-round win over No. 160 Clement Tabur.
- Harris is 5-7 on hard in his last 12, though he saved three match points to beat No. 146 Nicolai Budkov Kjaer 3-6 6-3 7-5.
- Cassone has played four matches in five days including qualifying, while Harris has played one three-set match in the same period.
- Cassone has won 8 of 10 opening sets on hard; Harris has split 6-6.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMurphy CassoneEstimated chance56%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' opening sets average above the 9.5 line, pointing to the over.
- Harris's opening sets average 9.75 total games on hard.
- Cassone's opening sets average 10.5 total games on hard.
- Cassone's first set against Tabur reached 7-6 (13 games).
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined average sits near the line, with Harris's lower game totals slightly tipping the balance under.
- Harris's hard-court matches average 23.7 total games; Cassone's average 24.7.
- Harris's last 12 hard matches produced 23.67 games on average, just below the line.
- Cassone's 10 hard matches average 24.7 games, slightly above the line.
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 24.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined second-set average sits just above 9.5, giving the over a slight edge.
- Harris's second sets average 10.0 total games on hard.
- Cassone's second sets average 9.5 total games on hard.
- Combined second-set average is 9.75, just above the line.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have finished most recent hard-court matches in straight sets, favoring under 2.5.
- Harris's hard-court scorelines include 8 straight-set finishes in 12 matches.
- Cassone's hard-court scorelines include 6 straight-set finishes in 10 matches.
- Combined, 14 of 22 hard-court matches ended in two sets.
- Total sets average is 2.33 for Harris and 2.4 for Cassone in best-of-three.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Cassone's strong opening-set record on hard makes him more likely to take the first set.
- Cassone has won 8 of 10 opening sets on hard courts.
- Harris has won 6 of 12 opening sets on hard.
- Cassone won the opening set 7-6 against Tabur in the first round.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMurphy CassoneEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Cassone's better second-set record on hard makes him slightly more likely to take the second set.
- Cassone has won 6 of 10 second sets on hard.
- Harris has won 6 of 12 second sets on hard.
- Cassone's second-set games average is 5.5 won to 4.0 lost.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonMurphy CassoneEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Slightly more of both players' hard-court matches finished without a tiebreak.
- Harris has avoided a tiebreak in 7 of 12 hard-court matches.
- Cassone has avoided a tiebreak in 5 of 10 hard-court matches.
- Combined rate is 12 of 22 matches without a tiebreak (55%).
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance52%

Prediction history

Murphy Cassone: 1/4 recent winner projections matched

1 of 4 comparable winner projections favouring Murphy Cassone matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Murphy Cassone4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

29 Jul·Vancouver - Canada

#204Harry Wendelken1-0#269Murphy Cassone

BetBugsMurphy Cassone to win·55%

Missed

29 Jul 2026

Vancouver - Canada

#204Harry Wendelken1-0#269Murphy Cassone

Murphy Cassone to win

55%probability

Harry Wendelken won

Missed

16 Jul·Granby - Canada

#354Blaise Bicknell1-2#287Murphy Cassone

BetBugsMurphy Cassone to win·58%

Matched

16 Jul 2026

Granby - Canada

#354Blaise Bicknell1-2#287Murphy Cassone

Murphy Cassone to win

58%probability

Murphy Cassone won

Matched

9 Jul·Newport - USA

#289Murphy Cassone1-2#224Darwin Blanch

BetBugsMurphy Cassone to win·58%

Missed

9 Jul 2026

Newport - USA

#289Murphy Cassone1-2#224Darwin Blanch

Murphy Cassone to win

58%probability

Darwin Blanch won

Missed

26 May·Little Rock - USA

#1391Ronald Hohmann2-1#264Murphy Cassone

BetBugsMurphy Cassone to win·78%

Missed

26 May 2026

Little Rock - USA

#1391Ronald Hohmann2-1#264Murphy Cassone

Murphy Cassone to win

78%probability

Ronald Hohmann won

Missed

Previous match context available

Billy Harris

7W 8L

3-6 6-3 7-5#146Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

7-5 7-6(4)#320Ugo Blanchet

7-5 1-6 7-6(2)#378Moez Echargui

7-5 6-3#289Hugo Grenier

3-6 7-6(5) 7-5#195Felix Balshaw

7-5 6-4#258Jay Dylan Hara Friend

6-2 7-6(3)#289Hugo Grenier

4-6 6-1 6-4#98Toby Samuel

6-1 6-3#175Gonzalo Bueno

6-2 6-1#107Kyrian Jacquet

6-4 7-6(2)#250Abedallah Shelbayh

6-2 6-4#359Dhakshineswar Suresh

6-3 5-7 6-3 6-3#26Karen Khachanov

1-6 7-6(2) 6-2 6-3#273Yi Zhou

6-4 6-4#114Zsombor Piros

Murphy Cassone

9W 6L

7-6(6) 4-6 6-3#160Clement Tabur 6-2 7-5#514Patrick Zahraj 6-4 6-0—Hugo Car

6-3 7-6(8)#226Inaki Montes-De La Torre

6-5 ret.#178Harry Wendelken

6-3 6-3#61Arthur Gea

6-2 6-1#336Philip Sekulic

6-7(7) 6-2 7-5#399Blaise Bicknell

7-5 4-6 7-6(4)#152Tristan Schoolkate

6-4 1-6 6-3#166Darwin Blanch

6-3 6-7(4) 6-3#57Ethan Quinn

6-4 4-6 6-4#96Alex Molcan

7-5 6-1#306Filippo Romano

6-7(6) 7-6(6) 7-6(3)#393Yuta Shimizu

6-4 6-1#312Daniel Milavsky

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

BHBilly HarrisHarris

Last 15

1–8

9 core stats · 0 even

Murphy CassoneCassoneMC

Murphy Cassone carries the stronger recent form — Billy Harris's route runs through return.

Serve · 0–5

1st Serve In59.7%+3.3pp63.0%

1st Serve Won67.8%+5.9pp73.7%

2nd Serve Won48.2%+6.1pp54.3%

Aces / Match5.3+0.86.1

Double Faults / Match3.81.2 fewer2.6

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won39.3%+2.3pp37.0%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted38.6%+10.8pp49.4%

Break Pts Saved62.6%+1.4pp64.0%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.7%+2.1pp51.8%

Serve · 0–5

59.7%1st Serve In+3.3pp63.0%

67.8%1st Serve Won+5.9pp73.7%

48.2%2nd Serve Won+6.1pp54.3%

5.3Aces / Match+0.86.1

3.8Double Faults / Match1.2 fewer2.6

Return · 1–0

39.3%Return Pts Won+2.3pp37.0%

Pressure · 0–2

38.6%Break Pts Converted+10.8pp49.4%

62.6%Break Pts Saved+1.4pp64.0%

Points · 0–1

49.7%Total Pts Won+2.1pp51.8%

Billy Harris

Murphy Cassone

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Murphy Cassone

Murphy Cassone

Murphy Cassone

Murphy Cassone 2-0

Result1 of 1 landed

Games3 of 3 landed

Sets3 of 3 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Billy Harris

Murphy Cassone

Stat Battle