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Predictions graded

Vit Kopriva #71Czechia2Jia HuChina0

Sets 6-4 · 7-5Wed 23 Sept 2026, 07:14 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions8–0100%

Edges1–325%

Player Profiles

Vit Kopriva

Czechia

Reached career-high No. 55 in May 2026 after his first Masters 1000 fourth round in Madrid. ATP lists clay as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #71
Peak ranking: #55 · 2026
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Jia Hu

China

17-year-old Chinese player who entered the Chengdu Open singles main draw on a wild card, and he also plays doubles there with Hanlei Lu. He holds no singles ranking.

Current ranking: —
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 17
Preferred surface: —
Hand: —
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 22 Sep 2026, 22:46 · Europe/Bucharest

No. 71 against an unranked 17-year-old home wild card looks a mismatch, and Kopriva should win, most likely in straight sets.

The price is the problem: 1.01 to win the match, 1.05 for a 2-0 win and 1.03 for straight sets justify nothing. Three longer prices carry a case — Jia Hu to take the first set at 12.0, three sets at 8.0, and Hu to win at 26.0.

Context

Kopriva is the third singles option for the Czech Republic behind Jiri Lehecka and Jakub Mensik and was in Prague with the squad in mid-September for the Davis Cup qualifying tie against the United States. That team block sits between his US Open first round on 30 August and this Chengdu opener, so his work on the Chinese hard courts comes after intercontinental travel while his opponent is on home ground. The limitation is that a third-option player may have carried little or no singles load in that tie, which caps how much the sequence explains about his current level.
- Czech squad trained in Prague ahead of the Davis Cup qualifying tie against the United States
- Kopriva listed third in the Czech singles order behind Jiri Lehecka and Jakub Mensik
- Kopriva spoke about his position in the national team and his path into the Czech top three
ConfirmedSources checked 22 Sep 2026, 22:44 · Europe/Bucharest
Kopriva is the higher-ranked player but has lost ten of the 15 matches in this window.
The 15-match window ending 30 August 2026 shows five wins and ten losses, with 47.3% of total points won (1009 of 2132) and 55.7% of break points saved (59 of 106). It means an opponent far below him in the rankings still meets a player who has been losing more than he wins. The counter is the standard of opposition in that stretch, which included top-30 and top-50 players, and the whole sample is small.
- 5 wins, 10 losses in 15 tracked matches ending 30 August 2026
- 47.3% of total points won (1009 of 2132) across the same 15 matches
- 55.7% of break points saved (59 of 106) in the 15-match window
Kopriva's recent hard-court matches have been short whether he wins or loses.
Those five matches averaged 2.0 sets and 20.6 games, with Kopriva winning 5.4 games in first sets and losing 5.6. Both wins came by the same 6-4 6-4 scoreline against opponents ranked 172 and 179, and the three defeats were also straight sets, so short matches rather than short wins is the pattern. With only five matches from an August window and nothing yet from this tournament, it hints at match length rather than settling it.
- 2 wins, 3 losses in 5 hard-court best-of-three matches from 3 to 21 August 2026
- Total games average 20.6 and sets average 2.0, with first-set games 5.4 won and 5.6 lost
- Both wins were 6-4 6-4 against opponents ranked 172 and 179
The main draw opens on Wednesday 23 September and this match is second on Centre Court, so both players get the show court and the same afternoon conditions. Neither had to come through qualifying or play under lights, which takes scheduling out of the picture for this fixture. The frame for the match is therefore profile rather than placement: Kopriva is a 29-year-old ranked 71st and Hu is a 17-year-old wild card without a singles ranking.
- Chengdu Open main draw starts Wednesday 23 September
- Kopriva-Hu is listed second on Centre Court after Baez-Brooksby at 1pm local
- Round of 32 played at the Sichuan International Tennis Center
ConfirmedSources checked 22 Sep 2026, 22:44 · Europe/BucharestChengdu Open match pagesports.yahoo.com · 22 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Kopriva has lost most of his recent matches but has reliably beaten players well outside the top 100, and Hu has no tour-level result suggesting he can close that gap.
- Kopriva is ATP No. 71; Hu is a 17-year-old wild card with no singles ranking.
- Kopriva's two hard-court wins in the tracked window came against opponents ranked 172 and 179, both in straight sets.
- Hu's hard-court best-of-three sample is 4 wins from 10 matches, with five 0-2 defeats.
- Hu's most recent completed match was a 3-12 loss to a player ranked No. 821.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonVit KoprivaEstimated chance86%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kopriva's habit of being broken keeps game counts up even in short matches, and both players' tracked hard-court totals sit just above this line.
- Kopriva's hard-court matches average 20.6 total games; Hu's average 19.5.
- Kopriva's hard-court break-points-saved rate is 42.4%, so he concedes games.
- Hu has been beaten 3-12 and 5-12 in two of his most recent completed matches.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 18.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kopriva concedes enough games on serve that his opening sets have routinely passed this line, though Hu's own sets have been shorter.
- Kopriva's hard-court opening sets average 11.0 games in total.
- Hu's hard-court opening sets average 8.8 games in total.
- Kopriva loses 5.6 games per opening set on hard.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' format-matched hard-court matches have ended in straight sets almost without exception, and the level gap points the same way.
- All 5 of Kopriva's hard-court best-of-three matches finished in two sets (2.0 sets average).
- Hu's hard-court best-of-three sample averages 2.1 sets, with only one three-setter in 10.
- Kopriva's hard-court matches average 102 minutes.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance77%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Hu's first sets at his own level have been losing ones, and Kopriva's ranking edge should translate into an early lead despite his own slow starts.
- Kopriva's hard-court set-one record is 2 wins and 3 losses; Hu's is 4 wins and 6 losses.
- Hu averages 3.9 games won in opening sets, against 4.9 lost.
- Kopriva is ranked No. 71; Hu holds no singles ranking.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonVit KoprivaEstimated chance77%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The overall ranking gap should tell over a second set, even though both players' set-two records in the tracked window are modest.
- Kopriva's hard-court set-two record is 2 wins and 3 losses, averaging 4.4 games won.
- Hu's hard-court set-two record is 5 wins and 5 losses.
- Kopriva's hard-court straight-sets wins were both 6-4 6-4.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonVit KoprivaEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.05
The read
Both players' recent hard-court matches have overwhelmingly finished in two sets, and the ranking gap points to Kopriva taking the straight-sets route more often than not.
- All five of Kopriva's completed hard-court best-of-three matches in the window were straight sets.
- Nine of Hu's 10 hard-court best-of-three matches finished in straight sets.
- Kopriva's two hard-court wins in this window were 12-8 and 12-8.
BetBugs · Set BettingwonVit Kopriva 2-0Estimated chance70%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' hard-court sets usually finish before 6-6, and the mismatch further reduces the chance of a tiebreak.
- Eight of Kopriva's last 10 hard-court sets did not reach a tiebreak.
- Nine of Hu's 10 hard-court best-of-three matches were decided without one.
- Kopriva's hard-court sets average 11.0 games in set one and 9.6 in set two.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance78%

Vit Kopriva

5W 10L

6-3 6-4 6-0#30Tomas Martin Etcheverry

7-5 6-4#136Lloyd Harris

6-4 6-4#172Gauthier Onclin

7-6(5) 6-4#49Quentin Halys

6-4 6-2#23Jiri Lehecka

6-4 6-4#179Alexis Galarneau

7-5 6-7(3) 6-1#35Ignacio Buse

6-1 6-3#101Dino Prizmic

6-3 7-5 6-2#89Jan Choinski

5-7 7-5 6-3#57Ethan Quinn

7-5 6-1#35Ignacio Buse

6-3 6-4#100Damir Dzumhur

6-3 4-6 6-2#2Alexander Zverev

6-1 4-6 7-6(4)#180Vitaliy Sachko

6-0 6-4#371Andrej Martin

Jia Hu

6W 9L

6-2 6-1#821Hanyi Liu

2-2 ret.#645Kuan-Yi Lee

6-1 6-4—Jaesung Choe

7-5 6-7(9) 7-6(3)#421Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

6-2 6-4—Qiulin Wang

6-2 6-1—Hanzhe Wang

6-2 6-1#723Maxim Zhukov

6-2 7-5#313Akira Santillan

6-3 3-1 ret.—Weiyi Kong

6-4 6-2—Zichen Shao

6-0 6-2—Shixun Zhu

3-6 6-1 13-11—Hao Duan

6-4 ret.—Changli Zhang

7-5 6-7(4) 10-6—Elijah Cham

7-6(4) 7-5—Nikita Ianin

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

VKVit KoprivaKopriva

Last 15

6–2

9 core stats · 1 even

Jia HuHuJH

Vit Kopriva carries the stronger recent form — Jia Hu's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

1st Serve In15/15 · 7/1559.3%+2.5pp56.8%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 7/1568.3%+7.4pp60.9%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 7/1547.5%—46.9%

Aces / Match15/15 · 7/154.8+3.41.4

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 7/153.10.7 fewer2.4

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won15/15 · 7/1534.7%+1.8pp32.9%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 7/1540.2%+2.7pp42.9%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 7/1555.7%+2.8pp52.9%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won15/15 · 7/1547.3%+2.7pp44.6%

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

59.3%1st Serve In15/15 · 7/15+2.5pp56.8%

68.3%1st Serve Won15/15 · 7/15+7.4pp60.9%

47.5%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 7/15—46.9%

4.8Aces / Match15/15 · 7/15+3.41.4

3.1Double Faults / Match15/15 · 7/150.7 fewer2.4

Return · 1–0

34.7%Return Pts Won15/15 · 7/15+1.8pp32.9%

Pressure · 1–1

40.2%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 7/15+2.7pp42.9%

55.7%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 7/15+2.8pp52.9%

Points · 1–0

47.3%Total Pts Won15/15 · 7/15+2.7pp44.6%

Vit Kopriva

Jia Hu

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Jia Hu

Over 2.5

Jia Hu

Vit Kopriva 2-0

Result1 of 1 landed

Games2 of 2 landed

Sets4 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Vit Kopriva

Jia Hu

Stat Battle