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Predictions graded

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer #146Norway1Billy Harris #231United Kingdom2

Sets 6-3 · 3-6 · 5-7Tue 22 Sept 2026, 14:15 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions3–633%

Edges2–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageNicolai Budkov Kjaer · 85 places

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Norway

Right-hander currently ranked No. 146, listed at 191 cm with a two-handed backhand. No further reliable public profile detail was available.

Current ranking: #146
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Billy Harris

United Kingdom

Right-hander currently ranked No. 231, listed at 193 cm with a two-handed backhand. No further reliable public profile detail was available.

Current ranking: #231
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 21 Sep 2026, 12:07 · Europe/Bucharest

Two players whose hard-court numbers sit almost level meet in the Saint-Tropez first round: Kjaer, at No. 146, owns the better recent record, while Harris returns and defends break points a shade better.

Kjaer looks the likelier winner in ordinary terms, though not by the margin implied by his 1.55 match price or 1.60 first-set price. Harris at 2.3 is the one reviewed price assessed as potential value.

Context

Kjaer, the higher-ranked player at No. 146, has been noticeably stronger in opening sets than second sets during this hard-court swing.
Second sets are where Kjaer's hard-court matches have slipped: he has been beaten in eight of 12, and the games count turns against him by more than a game per set. Harris has held a 5-6 second-set record over 11 hard-court matches in the same period, including four second-set tiebreaks, so the middle set is the most plausible place for the match to swing. It remains one part of a 12-match sample rather than a settled pattern.
- 1 August–12 September 2026, 12 hard-court matches: Kjaer 6-6 in opening sets and 4-8 in second sets.
- Second sets average 4.08 games won and 5.33 lost, with one second-set tiebreak across those 12 matches.
- Across the same 12 matches Kjaer is 6-6, winning 13 of 28 sets (46.4%) and 48.9% of games.
Harris, ranked 231, has won every hard-court match in this window in two sets.
His 11 hard-court matches average 2.27 sets and 23.1 games, splitting into four 2-0 wins, four 0-2 defeats and three 1-2 losses. That is why a Harris victory is more likely to arrive in two sets than three, and it supports the lean towards the match finishing under 2.5 sets. The pattern cuts both ways, since he has also been beaten in straight sets four times, and it covers a modest 11-match sample.
- 21 July–14 September 2026: 11 hard-court matches, with four 2-0 wins, four 0-2 defeats and three 1-2 losses.
- All four hard-court wins came in straight sets; Harris averages 2.27 sets per match in the window.
- Games average 23.1 per match across those 11 matches, with five of them featuring a tiebreak.
Returning and defending break points have been the most dependable parts of Harris's recent record.
Saving 61.1% of break points across 15 tracked matches while returning 40.0% of points gives Harris a route to staying in games even when he is second-best from the back of the court. That is the profile which keeps a No. 231 player competitive against a higher-ranked opponent rather than being broken twice a set. The sample spans 15 matches and more than one surface, so it is supporting evidence for the hard-court numbers rather than a hard-court figure in its own right.
- 15 tracked matches: 69 of 113 break points saved (61.1%).
- Return points won: 483 of 1208 (40.0%).
- Total points won: 1203 of 2405 (50.0%) across the same 15 matches.
Harris comes into the Saint-Tropez first round off a narrow two-set defeat.
That loss is his most recent completed evidence, and it shows two tight sets, including a second-set tiebreak, rather than a collapse. Second sets have been the better half of his hard-court record at 5-6, so a repeat of that pattern would matter here. It is a single completed match, however, and describes only that day's scoring rather than any wider trend.
- 14 September 2026: lost 0-2 to Ugo Blanchet (No. 320) on indoor hard, 5-7 6-7, 11-14 in games.
- Completed match, not a retirement; the second set went to a tiebreak.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

1.60fair 1.89

BetBugs 53% · Market 62.5%

−9.5ppshort

Opening sets are almost level, with Kjaer's ranking and hard-court record giving him a narrow lean.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kjaer is the higher-ranked player, has the better hard-court record in this window and beat two opponents who both defeated Harris.
- Ranked 146 against 231
- Hard-court record 6-6 in 12 matches against 4-7 in 11
- Beat Echargui 2-1 and Balshaw 2-0, both of whom beat Harris
- Second-serve points won 49.7% against 46.7%
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostNicolai Budkov KjaerEstimated chance54%

Games0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First sets in these players' matches usually stretch to ten games or more.
- Kjaer's first sets average 10.3 games; Harris's average 9.8
- Kjaer has played three first-set tiebreaks in 12 hard matches
- Six of Kjaer's 12 first sets have reached at least ten games
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Most of their hard-court matches end in two sets with totals in the high teens or low twenties.
- Kjaer's two-set hard matches have averaged close to 19 games
- Only one of seven recent straight-set matches reached 23 games
- Set averages of about 9.4-10.3 games per set
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 22.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second sets sit right on the line, with Harris's tiebreak habit tipping it marginally over.
- Kjaer's second sets average 9.4 games; Harris's average 10.1
- Four second-set tiebreaks in Harris's 11 hard matches
- Combined second-set average of about 9.8 games
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance51%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set results dominate both players' hard-court records in this window.
- Kjaer has played 2.33 sets per hard-court match, Harris 2.27
- Ten of twenty-three combined hard-court matches ended 2-0 either way
- Harris has won all four of his hard-court victories in straight sets
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have been the weaker part of Kjaer's recent hard-court matches while Harris has held his ground there.
- Harris has won 5 of 11 second sets on hard
- Kjaer has lost 8 of 12 second sets on hard
- Harris has played four second-set tiebreaks in 11 matches
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonBilly HarrisEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Opening sets are almost level, with Kjaer's ranking and hard-court record giving him a narrow lean.
- Kjaer has won 6 of 12 opening sets on hard; Harris 6 of 11
- Kjaer's first sets average 10.3 games with three tiebreaks
- Kjaer ranked 146 against Harris 231
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonNicolai Budkov KjaerEstimated chance53%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The two players' ace rates add up to fewer than nine on average.
- Kjaer's 43 aces in 12 hard matches; Harris's 42 in 11
- Combined average of about 7.4 aces per match
- Both first-serve-in rates under 64%
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 8.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Tiebreaks are absent from the majority of both players' recent hard-court matches.
- Fourteen of twenty-three combined hard-court matches had no tiebreak
- Kjaer has played one second-set tiebreak in 12 hard matches
- Harris has played no first-set tiebreak in 11 hard matches
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance59%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined average sits exactly on the line, and Kjaer's low rate tips the balance slightly under.
- Harris has 44 double faults in 11 hard matches
- Kjaer has 30 double faults in 12 hard matches
- Combined 74 double faults across 23 matches
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 6.5Estimated chance53%

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

7W 8L

4-6 6-4 6-4#456Jie Cui

6-7(4) 6-2 6-4#84Titouan Droguet

6-7(2) 7-5 6-1#378Moez Echargui

6-1 7-6(7)#521Yanis Ghazouani Durand

6-4 6-4#195Felix Balshaw

6-3 6-1#143Mark Lajal

7-5 6-4#115Christopher O'Connell

7-6(2) 4-6 6-4#235Maks Kasnikowski

6-3 6-1#95Jesper De Jong

6-3 6-1#111Bu Yunchaokete

7-5 6-4#107Kyrian Jacquet

6-2 3-6 6-4#97Hugo Gaston

6-3 6-4#93Sho Shimabukuro

7-6(4) 6-3#217Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

6-3 6-2#144Andrea Pellegrino

Billy Harris

7W 8L

7-5 7-6(4)#320Ugo Blanchet

7-5 1-6 7-6(2)#378Moez Echargui

7-5 6-3#289Hugo Grenier

3-6 7-6(5) 7-5#195Felix Balshaw

7-5 6-4#258Jay Dylan Hara Friend

6-2 7-6(3)#289Hugo Grenier

4-6 6-1 6-4#98Toby Samuel

6-1 6-3#175Gonzalo Bueno

6-2 6-1#107Kyrian Jacquet

6-4 7-6(2)#250Abedallah Shelbayh

6-2 6-4#359Dhakshineswar Suresh

6-3 5-7 6-3 6-3#26Karen Khachanov

1-6 7-6(2) 6-2 6-3#273Yi Zhou

6-4 6-4#114Zsombor Piros

6-2 6-2#279Stefano Napolitano

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

NKNicolai Budkov KjaerKjaer

Last 15

3–5

9 core stats · 1 even

Billy HarrisHarrisBH

Billy Harris carries the stronger recent form — Nicolai Budkov Kjaer's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In14/15 · 15/1563.4%+4.0pp59.4%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/1565.2%+3.2pp68.4%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/1549.5%+1.4pp48.1%

Aces / Match14/15 · 15/153.4+1.54.9

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/152.41.2 fewer3.6

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/1537.7%+2.3pp40.0%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/1538.0%—38.2%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/1552.2%+8.9pp61.1%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/1548.6%+1.4pp50.0%

Serve · 3–2

63.4%1st Serve In14/15 · 15/15+4.0pp59.4%

65.2%1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+3.2pp68.4%

49.5%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+1.4pp48.1%

3.4Aces / Match14/15 · 15/15+1.54.9

2.4Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/151.2 fewer3.6

Return · 0–1

37.7%Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+2.3pp40.0%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

38.0%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/15—38.2%

52.2%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/15+8.9pp61.1%

Points · 0–1

48.6%Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+1.4pp50.0%