Plovdiv - BulgariaFinished

Predictions graded

Michael Geerts #344Belgium0Carlos Sanchez Jover #336Spain2

Sets 4-6 · 5-7Tue 22 Sept 2026, 09:00 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions5–456%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageCarlos Sanchez Jover · 8 places

Michael Geerts

Belgium

Belgian right-hander, 178 cm, ranked No. 344 and coached by Thomas Deschamps. His last 15 recorded matches are split between hard and clay, producing a 7-8 record.

Current ranking: #344
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Carlos Sanchez Jover

Spain

Spanish left-hander, 173 cm, ranked No. 336 and coached by Juan Manuel Esparcia. All 15 of his recorded recent matches came on clay, where he went 10-5.

Current ranking: #336
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Left handed
Height: 173 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 21 Sep 2026, 11:44 · Europe/Bucharest

Two players eight ranking places apart, Carlos Sanchez Jover (336) and Michael Geerts (344), open the Plovdiv first round on clay.

Sanchez Jover owns the longer, fresher clay record at 8-5 in 13 completed matches, while Geerts has taken five of six opening sets; the likelier outcome is a close Sanchez Jover win. No quoted prices came with the match, so there is nothing to back at a number.

Context

Geerts arrives ranked 344, the lower of the two, but he has been the faster starter on this surface.
This is the strongest single phase either player owns in the supplied clay samples, and it gives Geerts a route to lead early in Plovdiv. It rests on six matches with one retirement excluded, and Sanchez Jover splits his own opening sets 7-6, so the pattern is a lean rather than a guarantee.
- Geerts is 5-1 in first sets across six completed clay matches, 5 May–15 August 2026.
- He averages 5.5 games won and 3.67 games lost in those first sets.
- One retirement is excluded from that six-match clay sample.
Sanchez Jover, a left-hander ranked 336, has the larger and more recent clay sample of the two.
A winning middle set with a positive game difference is the clearest sustained edge in his record, and it lines up against a Geerts second set that sits at 3-3. It means the match can swing back his way after a fast Geerts start. Two retirements are excluded from the 13-match sample.
- Sanchez Jover is 8-5 in second sets across 13 completed clay matches, 13 July–13 September 2026.
- He averages 4.69 games won and 3.85 games lost in second sets, roughly 0.85 games to the good.
- Two retirements are excluded from that clay sample.
This is the most recent clay entry in Geerts' record, the surface he returns to in Plovdiv.
It is the counterweight to his five-of-six opening-set record: the first set alone has not always settled his clay matches, and this one turned on the second and third. Verwerft carries no ranking in the supplied data, so the result says more about the shape of the match than the standing of the opponent.
- 15 August 2026: lost 6-2 2-6 4-6 to Lars Goran Verwerft on clay.
- It is Geerts' most recent completed clay match in the record.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sanchez Jover has the larger and fresher clay body of work, plus a left-handed serve and forehand that suits the surface, while Geerts' clay evidence is a short May-to-August block.
- Sanchez Jover is 8-5 across 13 completed clay matches in the tracked window, all on this surface
- Geerts is 4-2 on clay in a smaller 6-match sample that ends 15 August
- Rankings are level: 336 for Sanchez Jover, 344 for Geerts
- Sanchez Jover's clay scorelines include four 2-0 and four 2-1 wins
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonCarlos Sanchez JoverEstimated chance53%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sanchez Jover's second sets are the most one-sided phase in the evidence, averaging under nine games, which pulls the combined expectation under the line.
- Sanchez Jover's clay second sets average 8.54 games
- Geerts' clay second sets average 9.33 games
- Only two second-set tiebreaks appear across the combined clay samples
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' clay matches commonly stretch past two sets, and their combined game averages sit at or above the line, so a third set or a long two-setter is a realistic route over it.
- Sanchez Jover's clay matches average 22.46 games
- Geerts' clay matches average 21.5 games
- Sanchez Jover's clay matches average 2.54 sets, Geerts' 2.33 sets
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' opening sets average just under nine games, and tiebreaks have been rare in the tracked clay matches, so a tight set rarely runs long.
- Geerts' clay first sets average 9.17 games
- Sanchez Jover's clay first sets average 9.15 games
- Only one first-set tiebreak appears across the two clay samples
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance54%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-sets results make up a large share of both players' clay scorelines, particularly for Geerts, so a two-set match is the more frequent outcome in the evidence.
- Geerts won 2-0 in three of his six clay matches
- Sanchez Jover won 2-0 in four of 13 and lost 0-2 in two of 13
- Sanchez Jover's second-set games lost average is 3.85
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sanchez Jover's second sets are his best phase, with a positive game difference and a winning record, while Geerts is level in that set.
- Sanchez Jover is 8-5 in second sets on clay
- His second sets average 4.69 games won and 3.85 lost
- Geerts is 3-3 in second sets on clay
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonCarlos Sanchez JoverEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Geerts starts clay matches strongly, winning five of six opening sets, while Sanchez Jover splits his first sets almost evenly.
- Geerts won the first set in 5 of 6 clay matches
- Geerts averages 5.5 games won and 3.67 lost in first sets on clay
- Sanchez Jover is 7-6 in first sets on clay
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostMichael GeertsEstimated chance51%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' clay matches usually finish without a tiebreak, and the sampled sets rarely reach 6-6.
- Sanchez Jover had two tiebreaks across 13 clay matches in the window
- Geerts had one tiebreak in six clay matches
- Neither player's clay match contains more than one tiebreak in the sample
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance82%

Michael Geerts

7W 8L

6-3 6-4#254Jay Dylan Hara Friend

6-7(5) 6-3 7-5#337Lucas Poullain

4-6 6-4 6-4#461Radu Albot

6-3 7-6(6)—Billy Blaydes

2-6 6-2 6-4—Lars Goran Verwerft

6-4 6-4#435Geoffrey Blancaneaux

7-5 6-3#822Nicolas Robert

6-3 6-2#545Martin Van Der Meerschen

6-7(9) 6-2 6-2#466Viktor Durasovic

6-1 6-4#242Yi Zhou

6-2 6-2#603Pieter De Lange

7-6(8) 2-1 ret.#886Iiro Vasa

6-2 6-7(6) 6-2#795Dinko Dinev

7-6(7) 6-7(3) 7-6(3)#415Niels Visker

6-4 6-4#440Ioannis Xilas

Carlos Sanchez Jover

10W 5L

7-5 6-3#900Filip Pieczonka

0-6 6-4 6-4#172Gonzalo Bueno

2-6 7-6(4) 6-3#476Pedro Vives Marcos

6-3 6-1—Sergi Fita Juan

2-6 6-1 7-5#496Alexander Ritschard

6-3 4-0 ret.#496Alexander Ritschard

7-6(3) 6-3#665Imanol Lopez Morillo

1-6 6-2 6-2#623Alejandro Juan Mano

6-4 6-0#704Oscar Jose Gutierrez

4-6 6-3 6-1#826Carles Cordoba

7-5 6-2#359Gabriele Piraino

6-2 6-3#891George Lazarov

6-2 ret.#392Daniel Elahi Galan

6-2 2-6 6-2#354Valerio Aboian

6-2 2-6 6-2#160Taro Daniel

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MGMichael GeertsGeerts

Last 15

4–5

9 core stats · 0 even

Carlos Sanchez JoverJoverCJ

Carlos Sanchez Jover carries the stronger recent form — Michael Geerts's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1556.7%+10.2pp66.9%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1569.9%+8.2pp61.7%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1554.2%+3.6pp50.6%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/154.8+3.41.4

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/152.70.7 fewer2.0

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1537.0%+9.2pp46.2%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1549.3%+7.9pp41.4%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1556.8%+6.1pp62.9%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1549.9%+2.1pp52.0%

Serve · 3–2

56.7%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+10.2pp66.9%

69.9%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+8.2pp61.7%

54.2%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+3.6pp50.6%

4.8Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+3.41.4

2.7Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/150.7 fewer2.0

Return · 0–1

37.0%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+9.2pp46.2%

Pressure · 1–1

49.3%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+7.9pp41.4%

56.8%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+6.1pp62.9%

Points · 0–1

49.9%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+2.1pp52.0%