ItalyGenoa - ItalyFinished

Predictions graded

Matthew William Donald #465Czechia2Gianluca Cadenasso #217Italy1

Sets 6-3 · 4-6 · 7-5Tue 22 Sept 2026, 18:41 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions3–633%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageGianluca Cadenasso · 248 places

Matthew William Donald

Czechia

Donald, 175 cm and right-handed with a two-handed backhand, is currently ranked No. 465. All 15 tracked recent matches were on clay, where he holds an 8-7 record between July and September 2026. Age and career-high ranking were not available for this profile.

Current ranking: #465
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Gianluca Cadenasso

Italy

Cadenasso, 175 cm and right-handed with a two-handed backhand, is currently ranked No. 217 and is coached by Giorgio Cadenasso and Mauro Balestra. Fourteen of his 15 tracked recent matches were on clay, where he went 5-9 in that window, and his most recent completed match was a straight-sets clay loss to Francesco Forti on 15 September 2026. Age and career-high ranking were not available for this profile.

Current ranking: #217
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 21 Sep 2026, 12:39 · Europe/Bucharest

Ranking points to Cadenasso, 217 against Donald's 465, but he has played one completed match since 22 June, a 6-13 games loss on 15 September, while Donald has had a steady clay run.

Cadenasso is the likelier winner, Donald the better second-set player, and a straight-sets finish is the more likely shape. No price was supplied, so there is nothing here to back at a number.

Context

Cadenasso is the higher-ranked player at No. 217, but his tracked record offers very little recent clay evidence to lean on.
A single match says nothing about fitness or a current problem, and it should not be read as one. What it does show is that Cadenasso arrives with almost no recent clay rhythm: before 15 September his tracked completed matches date to 22 June and earlier, so the ranking gap is doing most of the work in making him favourite.
- 15 September 2026: lost to Francesco Forti (ranked 373) 1-6, 5-7, winning 6 games to 13
- Sets: 0-2, with the second set going 5-7
- This is his most recent completed match in the tracked record
Cadenasso's second sets are the weakest part of an otherwise competitive clay record.
Losing the middle set eight times in 12 clay matches is a pattern rather than a one-off, and it is the clearest route for an opponent to drag this into a deciding set. It also sits awkwardly with his status as the higher-ranked player, since a straight-sets win requires him to close out the set he has struggled in most.
- 12 completed clay matches, 30 March to 15 September 2026: 4-8 in second sets
- 4.25 games won and 4.75 games lost per second set in that sample
- No second-set tiebreaks across those 12 matches
Donald's serve is a two-way statistic: enough first serves in, but a heavy double-fault count alongside them.
Seventy-seven double faults across 15 clay matches hands over a lot of free points, and with both players' clay sets averaging around nine to ten games it raises the chance of swings rather than comfortable holds. It is a serve pattern, not a claim about how he will play on the day.
- 15 clay matches, 11 July to 13 September 2026: 77 double faults, 5.1 per match
- First serve in on 676 of 1,020 service points (66.3%)
- First-serve points won 455 of 676 (67.3%)
Donald's most recent clay match came against a far lower-ranked opponent than the one he faces here.
One loss to a player ranked 681 does not define a player, and it came in three sets after he took the opener on a tiebreak. It matters because it is the freshest point in his record and because it shows that the lower reaches of this ranking range are not a safe place for him.
- 13 September 2026: lost 1-2 in sets to Giovanni Oradini (ranked 681), 7-6, 5-7, 2-6
- Games: 14 won, 19 lost
- Match duration recorded at 130 minutes

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The much higher ranking gives Cadenasso the stronger baseline on clay even though he has played very little recently.
- Cadenasso ranked 217, Donald 465
- Cadenasso 5-7 in 12 completed clay matches tracked
- Donald 8-7 in 15 completed clay matches tracked
- Cadenasso's only competitive match since late June was a 6-13 games loss on Sept 15
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostGianluca CadenassoEstimated chance55%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets for both players average nine games and rarely reach tiebreaks, which favours the under.
- Both players average 9.0 games in second sets
- Cadenasso won only 4.25 games per second set
- Donald won 4.8 games per second set
- Cadenasso has no second-set tiebreaks in 12 clay matches
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' opening sets average about ten games, which puts the line almost exactly in the middle.
- Donald's first sets average 9.9 games
- Cadenasso's first sets average 10.1 games
- Donald has two first-set tiebreaks in 15 clay matches
- Cadenasso has two first-set tiebreaks in 12 clay matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The two players sit right at the line, and the frequent breaks from unreliable serving tilt the balance slightly low.
- Donald averages 22.1 total games per clay match
- Cadenasso averages 22.5 total games per clay match
- Both players average 9.0 games in second sets
- Donald has 5.1 double faults per match on clay
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 22.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players finish a clear majority of their clay matches in straight sets, so a two-set match is the more likely shape.
- Donald's clay scorelines: 10 straight-set matches of 15
- Cadenasso's clay scorelines: 7 straight-set matches of 12
- Combined 17 of 27 completed clay matches ended 2-0
- Donald averages 2.33 sets per clay match, Cadenasso 2.42
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Cadenasso has lost twice as many second sets as he has won, which gives Donald the clear edge in the middle set.
- Donald 8-7 in second sets across 15 clay matches
- Cadenasso 4-8 in second sets across 12 clay matches
- Both players average 9.0 games in second sets
- Donald won 2-0 in six of his last fifteen clay matches
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonMatthew William DonaldEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players start matches competitively, and the ranking gap gives Cadenasso a narrow first-set edge.
- Cadenasso won the opening set in 7 of 12 completed clay matches
- Donald won the opening set in 9 of 15 completed clay matches
- Cadenasso's first sets average 10.1 games
- Donald's first sets average 9.9 games
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostGianluca CadenassoEstimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players break serve often and tiebreaks are rare in their recent clay matches.
- Donald had two matches with a tiebreak in fifteen clay matches
- Cadenasso had two matches with a tiebreak in twelve clay matches
- Donald averages 5.1 double faults per clay match
- Cadenasso has no second-set tiebreaks in twelve clay matches
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance80%

Matthew William Donald

8W 7L

6-7(7) 7-5 6-2#681Giovanni Oradini

7-5 6-4#257Mika Brunold

6-2 6-2#558Jelle Sels

6-4 6-2#422Benjamin Hassan

4-6 6-1 7-5#741Giorgio Tabacco

7-5 4-6 6-3#442Nerman Fatic

6-0 4-6 6-3#785Fryderyk Lechno-Wasiutynski

2-6 6-3 6-4#423Louis Wessels

6-3 6-4#559Dimitris Sakellaridis

6-2 6-3#609Oleksandr Ovcharenko

6-2 6-4#606Lorenzo Bocchi

7-6(9) 6-3#407Olle Wallin

6-4 6-0—Christopher Thies

7-5 6-3#385Max Wiskandt

6-4 6-2#542Adrian Oetzbach

Gianluca Cadenasso

5W 10L

6-1 7-5#373Francesco Forti

6-3 6-2#168Federico Cina

6-2 ret.#41Daniel Merida Aguilar

6-7(5) 6-4 7-5#243Leandro Riedi

7-5 6-4#200Liam Broady

6-7(5) 6-4 6-0#52Thiago Agustin Tirante

1-6 6-1 6-0#37Matteo Arnaldi

6-4 5-7 6-3#98Jesper De Jong

7-5 6-1#90Mattia Bellucci

6-3 6-1#564Lorenzo Carboni

6-4 6-2#390Jacopo Vasami

2-6 6-1 6-2#216Alex Barrena

6-4 6-4#101Hugo Gaston

6-4 6-2#213Felix Gill

5-2 ret.#361Eduardo Ribeiro

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MDMatthew William DonaldDonald

Last 15

6–2

9 core stats · 1 even

Gianluca CadenassoCadenassoGC

Matthew William Donald carries the stronger recent form — Gianluca Cadenasso's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In66.3%+2.0pp64.3%

1st Serve Won67.3%+5.4pp61.9%

2nd Serve Won48.8%—48.7%

Aces / Match0.9+1.72.6

Double Faults / Match5.12.8 fewer2.3

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won40.9%+2.7pp38.2%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted46.5%+4.6pp41.9%

Break Pts Saved57.9%+7.4pp50.5%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won50.7%+2.9pp47.8%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

66.3%1st Serve In+2.0pp64.3%

67.3%1st Serve Won+5.4pp61.9%

48.8%2nd Serve Won—48.7%

0.9Aces / Match+1.72.6

5.1Double Faults / Match2.8 fewer2.3

Return · 1–0

40.9%Return Pts Won+2.7pp38.2%

Pressure · 2–0

46.5%Break Pts Converted+4.6pp41.9%

57.9%Break Pts Saved+7.4pp50.5%

Points · 1–0

50.7%Total Pts Won+2.9pp47.8%