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Predictions graded

David Jorda Sanchis #216Spain2Harry Wendelken #178United Kingdom0

Sets 6-2 · 6-4Tue 22 Sept 2026, 08:11 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions1–811%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageHarry Wendelken · 38 places

David Jorda Sanchis

Spain

Ranked No. 216. Listed at 198 cm, he plays right-handed with a two-handed backhand, and nine of his last fifteen matches came on clay.

Current ranking: #216
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 198 cm

Harry Wendelken

United Kingdom

Ranked No. 178. Listed at 178 cm, he plays right-handed with a two-handed backhand, and eleven of his last fifteen matches were on hard courts, where he has seven wins.

Current ranking: #178
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 21 Sep 2026, 11:55 · Europe/Bucharest

Two players separated by 38 ranking places meet in the Saint-Tropez first round, and Harry Wendelken's hard-court form makes him the likely winner.

But he has needed a third set in seven of his nine hard-court matches, and 1.29 is a lot to pay for that. The one quoted price that offers anything is David Jorda Sanchis at 3.3.

Context

Wendelken, ranked 178, won six of those nine matches but was extended in nearly all of them.
Only one of the nine finished as a straight-sets win in his favour and one was a straight-sets loss, so a quick, clean victory has been the exception rather than the rule. That pattern raises the chances of a long contest in this first round even though his recent hard-court results are clearly better than his opponent's.
- From 29 July to 20 September 2026, Wendelken played nine hard-court best-of-three matches, seven of which reached a third set.
- His scorelines in that sample: five 2-1 wins, one 2-0 win, two 1-2 losses and one 0-2 loss.
- Those matches averaged 27.4 total games; one retired match was excluded from the sample.
Jorda Sanchis, ranked 216, arrives after a 5-7 4-6 loss to Lucas Poullain (325) on 14 September.
Four of the six hard-court matches ended in straight-sets defeats, though several were close on games: 9-13 against Poullain, 11-14 against Dusan Lajovic (147) and 10-13 against Alan Magadan (517). He has been losing tight matches rather than being blown away, which leaves a narrow path if those margins turn, but the record itself is the weaker of the two here.
- From 10 August to 14 September 2026, Jorda Sanchis went 1-5 in six hard-court matches, with no retirements included.
- He won 3 of 14 sets and 45% of games in that window.
- His scorelines in the sample: four 0-2 defeats, one 1-2 defeat and one 2-1 win.
The result sits outside Wendelken's nine-match hard-court best-of-three sample but shows the level he can reach.
He won 15 games against a top-20 opponent and took the second set 6-3, which is a stronger showing than his ranking of 178 would suggest. It came in a best-of-five format, so it does not translate directly to a best-of-three Challenger first round, but it is a useful marker of his ceiling.
- On 31 August 2026, Wendelken lost to Luciano Darderi (ranked 20) 2-6 6-3 2-6 5-7.
- He won 15 games to Darderi's 22 across the four sets.
- The match was best-of-five and therefore falls outside his nine-match hard-court best-of-three sample.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Wendelken has the better ranking and clearly the stronger recent hard-court results, while Jorda Sanchis has lost five of six on the surface.
- Wendelken: 6-4 on hard in his current-surface window (10 matches); Jorda Sanchis 1-5 on hard (6 matches).
- Wendelken ranking 178 vs Jorda Sanchis 216; recent wins over Gaubas (117), Travaglia (159), Bertola (204).
- Jorda Sanchis: 45% of games won on hard, 3 of 14 sets won in that window.
- Wendelken's most recent completed match was a straight-sets win.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostHarry WendelkenEstimated chance66%

Games0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' opening sets have averaged around ten games, and both have lost the first set often by small margins.
- Jorda Sanchis's set1 totals average 10.67 games on hard.
- Wendelken's set1 totals average 10.0 games on hard.
- Neither player's set1 sample shows more than one tiebreak in six or nine matches.
- Jorda Sanchis has lost four of six hard-court matches 0-2 with close opening sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
If the match goes to three sets, as the recent pattern suggests, the game count is likely to clear this line.
- Jorda Sanchis's hard-court matches average 24.8 total games; Wendelken's hard-court best-of-3 matches average 27.4.
- Three-set scorelines in Wendelken's sample totalled 39, 35, 32 and 28 games.
- Wendelken's totalSetsAverage is 2.78 on hard.
- Jorda Sanchis's hard-court sets average 10.67 games in set1 and 10 in set2.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 26.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-set games have hovered right around the line for both players, with tiebreaks appearing in each sample.
- Jorda Sanchis's set2 totals average 10 games on hard.
- Wendelken's set2 totals average 9.67 games on hard.
- Jorda Sanchis has two set2 tiebreaks in six hard-court matches.
- Wendelken has two set2 tiebreaks in nine hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance51%

Sets0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Wendelken's recent matches have usually gone the distance, and the pair's similar rankings point to a competitive rather than one-sided contest.
- Wendelken's hard-court best-of-3 sample: 7 of 9 matches reached a third set.
- Wendelken's scorelines: five 2-1 wins, two 1-2 losses, one 2-0 and one 0-2.
- Jorda Sanchis's hard-court scorelines: four 0-2, one 1-2, one 2-1.
- Jorda Sanchis averages 2.33 sets per match on hard, Wendelken 2.78.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Wendelken is notably stronger in second sets, while Jorda Sanchis has lost the second set in almost all of his hard-court matches.
- Wendelken's set2 record on hard is 6-3; Jorda Sanchis's is 1-5.
- Wendelken averages 5 games won and 4.67 lost in set2.
- Jorda Sanchis averages 4.33 games won and 5.67 lost in set2.
- Jorda Sanchis has lost the second set in five of six hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostHarry WendelkenEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Neither player starts well, but Jorda Sanchis has lost the opening set in five of six hard-court matches.
- Wendelken's set1 record on hard is 3-6; Jorda Sanchis's is 1-5.
- Jorda Sanchis averages 4.83 games won in set1, 5.83 lost.
- Wendelken averages 4.56 games won in set1, 5.44 lost.
- Jorda Sanchis has lost four of six hard-court matches 0-2.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostHarry WendelkenEstimated chance56%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Most of Wendelken's recent sets have been decided by breaks rather than tiebreaks, which slightly favours no tiebreak.
- Wendelken has had a tiebreak in 2 of 9 hard-court best-of-3 matches.
- Jorda Sanchis has had a tiebreak in 3 of 6 hard-court matches.
- Neither player's set1 sample shows frequent tiebreaks.
- Jorda Sanchis's recent hard-court losses have included lopsided sets.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance58%

David Jorda Sanchis

6W 9L

7-5 6-4#325Lucas Poullain

7-5 2-6 7-5#538Luca Potenza

7-5 7-6(2)#147Dusan Lajovic

6-2 2-6 7-6(2)#239Henri Squire

6-4 7-6(5)#517Alan Magadan

6-4 6-2#192Jack Pinnington Jones

7-5 7-5#225Thiago Moura Monteiro

6-0 6-4#131Pedro Martinez Portero

6-3 6-1#222Max Houkes

6-0 5-7 6-3#438Juan Cruz Martin Manzano

6-2 7-6(2)#164Juan Carlos Prado Angelo

6-4 7-6(4)#195Felix Balshaw

3-6 6-4 7-5#208Tristan Boyer

6-7(2) 6-3 6-2#330Dali Blanch

6-1 6-4#341Miguel Damas

Harry Wendelken

8W 7L

6-2 6-3—Angel Veliz

6-2 3-6 6-2 7-5#20Luciano Darderi

6-7(3) 7-6(5) 7-6(5)#117Vilius Gaubas

5-7 7-6(4) 6-4#204Remy Bertola

6-4 3-6 6-3#159Stefano Travaglia

5-7 6-2 7-5#136Lloyd Harris

2-6 6-4 6-1#292Stefan Kozlov

3-6 6-3 6-1#150Borna Gojo

6-4 6-2#148Michael Mmoh

6-2 2-6 7-5#585Keegan Rice

6-5 ret.#318Murphy Cassone

4-6 6-3 6-3 6-3#104Valentin Royer

7-5 6-3#91Aleksandar Vukic

6-4 7-6(5)#40Botic Van De Zandschulp

7-6(7) 6-1#91Aleksandar Vukic

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

DSDavid Jorda SanchisSanchis

Last 15

4–2

9 core stats · 3 even

Harry WendelkenWendelkenHW

David Jorda Sanchis carries the stronger recent form — Harry Wendelken's route runs through return.

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1557.7%+6.6pp51.1%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1571.6%+2.4pp69.2%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1549.3%+1.6pp50.9%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/154.9—4.8

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/153.50.4 fewer3.9

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1535.5%+4.0pp39.5%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1537.5%—37.7%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1563.6%+6.3pp57.3%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1549.0%—49.5%

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

57.7%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+6.6pp51.1%

71.6%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+2.4pp69.2%

49.3%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+1.6pp50.9%

4.9Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15—4.8

3.5Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/150.4 fewer3.9

Return · 0–1

35.5%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+4.0pp39.5%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

37.5%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15—37.7%

63.6%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+6.3pp57.3%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

49.0%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15—49.5%