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Predictions graded

Timo Legout #444France2Daniil Ostapenkov #554Belarus0

Sets 6-3 · 6-1Mon 21 Sept 2026, 20:00 Predictions gradedQ3Hard

Predictions9–0100%

Edges4–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageTimo Legout · 110 places

Timo Legout

France

Right-hander listed at 178 cm, currently ranked No. 444. Age, career-high ranking and preferred surface are not established here; the stored hard-court record remains the main player context.

Current ranking: #444
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Daniil Ostapenkov

Belarus

Right-hander currently ranked No. 554. Limited reliable public profile information was found; use the form section as the main player context.

Current ranking: #554
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 21 Sep 2026, 11:18 · Europe/Bucharest

Legout has won 11 of 13 hard-court matches and beat Ostapenkov 6-3 6-4 a week ago, so the likely outcome is a Legout win, probably in straight sets.

None of the quoted prices rewards that view: 1.25 on Legout needs an 80% win rate, and the 1.30 set prices and 1.65 for a 2-0 win are too short, while Ostapenkov at 3.5 is also passed over. No quoted price here is worthwhile.

Context

Legout holds the most direct recent read on this matchup, having beaten Ostapenkov in straight sets seven days before this qualifying round.
That 6-3 6-4 scoreline is the clearest single reference point for the rematch: Legout won both sets without needing a tiebreak, which fits a window in which he has taken 12 of 13 opening sets. It remains one result rather than a pattern on its own, and Ostapenkov has since won a three-set match on 20 September, so the rematch is not simply a repeat of the same day.
- 14 September 2026 hard-court match: Legout beat Ostapenkov 6-3 6-4 (12 games to 7)
- No tiebreak was played; the match totalled 19 games
Legout's first-set record is the most lopsided part of his recent hard-court form.
Opening sets in that sample averaged 8.5 games, so they have mostly been settled by a break rather than a tiebreak, with only one tiebreak appearing anywhere in the 13 matches. That points to Ostapenkov needing to survive the start rather than expecting a tight opener, though the single first-set defeat in the sample shows the pattern is not absolute.
- Hard-court set 1 record across 13 matches (16 July to 20 September 2026): 12 wins, 1 loss
- Average set 1: 6 games won, 2.5 games lost, 8.5 games total
- One tiebreak across the 13 matches, none in a first set beyond that single instance
Ostapenkov's latest completed match went the distance, decided in the third set.
He won the opener 7-5, dropped the second 4-6 and closed it out 6-3, a 17-14 games split that took the match past two sets. It is one of four three-set matches in his 14-match hard-court window, and the record does not establish what that workload costs him here — it only shows he has recent, extended court time behind him.
- 20 September 2026: Ostapenkov beat Quinn Vandecasteele 7-5 4-6 6-3 (17 games to 14)
- The match finished less than 24 hours before this scheduled kickoff

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Timo Legout

1.25fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 80%

−8.0ppshort

Legout has the better recent hard-court record and won their meeting a week ago without dropping a set.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Timo Legout

1.30fair 1.41

BetBugs 71% · Market 76.9%

−5.9ppshort

Legout has started almost every recent match strongly, including the direct meeting.

Set 2 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Timo Legout

1.30fair 1.45

BetBugs 69% · Market 76.9%

−7.9ppshort

Legout's second-set record is nearly as strong as his first and he won it in the direct meeting.

Set BettingwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Timo Legout 2-0

1.65fair 2.00

BetBugs 50% · Market 60.6%

−10.6ppshort

Legout's recent wins are overwhelmingly straight-set, including the direct meeting a week ago.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Legout has the better recent hard-court record and won their meeting a week ago without dropping a set.
- Legout hard-court record in this window: 11-2 in 13 tracked matches
- Legout won the 14 September meeting 6-3 6-4 on hard
- Ostapenkov hard-court record: 8-6 in 14 tracked matches
- Rankings: Legout 444, Ostapenkov 554
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonTimo LegoutEstimated chance72%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Legout's opening sets are usually settled with a clear break margin rather than a tiebreak.
- Legout's set1 average total is 8.5 games
- Legout concedes only 2.5 games on average in set1
- Ostapenkov's set1 average total is 10.0 games
- Their 14 September opening set had 9 games
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Legout wins sets by wide margins and the one recent meeting finished below this line.
- Legout's 13 hard matches average 18.1 total games
- Ostapenkov's 14 hard matches average 22.4 total games
- The 14 September meeting produced 19 games
- Legout's straight-set wins in the sample are typically short
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 20.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets here are typically close to the line, with Legout usually ahead by a single break.
- Legout's set2 average total is 9.1 games
- Ostapenkov's set2 average total is 9.7 games
- Legout has lost two second sets in 13 matches
- Legout's set2 games won average is 5.5
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance53%

Sets4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Legout has started almost every recent match strongly, including the direct meeting.
- Legout's set1 record on hard: 12-1 in 13 matches
- Legout averages 6 games won and 2.5 lost in set1
- Ostapenkov's set1 record: 8-6 in 14 matches
- Legout won the opening set 6-3 in their 14 September meeting
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonTimo LegoutEstimated chance71%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Legout's second-set record is nearly as strong as his first and he won it in the direct meeting.
- Legout's set2 record on hard: 11-2 in 13 matches
- Legout averages 5.5 games won and 3.5 lost in set2
- Ostapenkov's set2 record: 8-6 in 14 matches
- Legout took the second set 6-4 in their 14 September meeting
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonTimo LegoutEstimated chance69%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Most of Legout's recent wins have been completed in straight sets, including the recent head-to-head.
- Legout's scorelines in this window: 11 wins by 2-0, one 1-2 loss, one 0-2 loss
- Ostapenkov's scorelines: six 2-0 wins, two 2-1 wins, four 0-2 losses, two 1-2 losses
- Legout's matches average 2.08 sets
- Ostapenkov's matches average 2.29 sets
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 1.65
The read
Legout's recent wins are overwhelmingly straight-set, including the direct meeting a week ago.
- Legout has won 11 of 13 matches in this window by 2-0
- Legout beat Ostapenkov 6-3 6-4 on 14 September
- Legout has not dropped a set in any of his last four completed wins before this assessment
- Ostapenkov has lost four matches 0-2 in this window
BetBugs · Set BettingwonTimo Legout 2-0Estimated chance50%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Legout's recent sets are decided by clear breaks rather than reaching 6-6.
- Legout has played one tiebreak match in 13
- Ostapenkov has four tiebreak matches in 14
- Legout's set1 games lost average is 2.5
- Ostapenkov's set1 games won average is 4.9
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance74%

Previous match context available

Timo Legout

12W 3L

6-2 6-0#766Darian King

7-6(6) 6-2#711Bryce Nakashima

6-1 6-4#226Henry Searle

6-3 6-4#554Daniil Ostapenkov

6-1 6-4#743Evan Bynoe

3-6 6-4 6-1#437Garrett Johns

6-2 6-3#362Aidan Mayo

6-2 6-4#522Evan Zhu

3-4 ret.#191Clement Chidekh

6-2 6-2#782Jack Anthrop

6-2 6-4—Alexander Frusina

6-2 6-4#1243Spencer Papa

7-5 ret.#339Mees Rottgering

6-3 6-4—Alexander Frusina

6-2 6-1#859Oliver Bonding

Daniil Ostapenkov

8W 7L

7-5 4-6 6-3#468Quinn Vandecasteele

6-3 6-4#444Timo Legout

6-2 6-2—Gus Grumet

3-1 ret.#885Egor Agafonov

6-7(4) 7-6(6) 6-1#308Florent Bax

3-6 6-3 7-6(1)#436Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine

7-6(6) 6-3#467Koki Matsuda

7-6(3) 6-1#670Yurii Dzhavakian

6-2 6-4#360Tiago Torres

6-4 6-3#401Lui Maxted

6-3 7-5—Rohan Mehra

6-3 3-6 6-3#289Carl Emil Overbeck

6-4 6-4#338Tiago Pereira

6-4 6-4—Guilherme Valdoleiros

6-1 6-4#329Yanki Erel

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

TLTimo LegoutLegout

Last 15

5–2

9 core stats · 2 even

Daniil OstapenkovOstapenkovDO

Timo Legout carries the stronger recent form — Daniil Ostapenkov's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–2 · 2 even

1st Serve In62.3%+2.9pp59.4%

1st Serve Won71.3%+1.4pp72.7%

2nd Serve Won54.2%—54.5%

Aces / Match1.1+5.16.2

Double Faults / Match2.7—2.9

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won45.6%+9.7pp35.9%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted46.6%+5.4pp41.2%

Break Pts Saved66.1%+17.8pp48.3%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won54.8%+4.5pp50.3%

Serve · 1–2 · 2 even

62.3%1st Serve In+2.9pp59.4%

71.3%1st Serve Won+1.4pp72.7%

54.2%2nd Serve Won—54.5%

1.1Aces / Match+5.16.2

2.7Double Faults / Match—2.9

Return · 1–0

45.6%Return Pts Won+9.7pp35.9%

Pressure · 2–0

46.6%Break Pts Converted+5.4pp41.2%

66.1%Break Pts Saved+17.8pp48.3%

Points · 1–0

54.8%Total Pts Won+4.5pp50.3%