ItalyGenoa - ItalyFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Ryan Nijboer #508Netherlands1Alejandro Juan Mano #623Spain2

Sets 6-4 · 3-6 · 4-6Mon 21 Sept 2026, 10:12 Predictions gradedQ3Clay

Predictions3–633%

Edges1–325%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageRyan Nijboer · 115 places

Ryan Nijboer

Netherlands

Dutch player born 28 July 1999. ITF records his preferred surface as hard and a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 371 in August 2024.

Current ranking: #508
Peak ranking: #371 · 2024
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Alejandro Juan Mano

Spain

Born 14 January 2005, Mano is listed as a right-hander. This is his first appearance at Genoa 2.

Current ranking: #623
Peak ranking: #623
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 20 Sep 2026, 19:42 · Europe/Bucharest

Nijboer arrives with six straight clay wins and two September ITF titles; Juan Mano has won nine of 14 on clay and holds the better first-set record.

Nijboer should come through, most likely in two sets. Three reviewed prices are worth taking: Nijboer to win the match at 1.6, Nijboer to win the second set at 1.6, and Nijboer to win 2-0 at 2.4. The 1.6 for Nijboer to win the opening set asks more than his 10-5 first-set record justifies.

Context

The Madrid title came from the No. 1 seed position, while the Gijón final was against Sander Jong. Those events provide the immediate competitive backdrop to this Genoa qualifying match beyond the stored win-loss totals. Both titles were won at ITF level, whereas Genoa 2 is a Challenger qualifying event, so they do not establish performance against this draw.
- Nijboer won M15 Madrid as the top seed and defeated Sander Jong for the Gijón ITF title.
ConfirmedSources checked 20 Sep 2026, 19:40 · Europe/Bucharest
Juan Mano has been a quick starter on clay, averaging 5.3 games won and 4.1 lost in first sets, with three of those 14 opening sets reaching a tiebreak.
The second set is where his clay matches level out: 4.5 games won to 4.14 lost and a 7-7 split over the same 14 matches. Nijboer has lost only two second sets in 15 clay matches, so carrying his opening-set level past the first set is the part of his game under most pressure in this matchup. One retirement is excluded from the sample.
- 10-4 first-set record and 7-7 second-set record in 14 completed clay matches (18 June–20 September 2026).
- First sets average 5.29 games won and 4.14 lost; second sets average 4.5 won and 4.14 lost.
- One retirement is excluded from the sample; three first sets reached a tiebreak.
Nijboer's clay record gets stronger as matches progress: 10-5 in first sets, then 13-2 in second sets with an average game margin of nearly three.
Second sets are the sharpest separation in this pairing: 13 wins from 15 at 5.8 games to 2.9, against Juan Mano's 7-7 second-set split over 14 clay matches. Nijboer also won nine of those 15 matches 2-0, so the second set has often been where he closes matches out rather than where he is tested.
- 13-2 second-set record and 10-5 first-set record across 15 completed clay matches (18 August–20 September 2026).
- Second sets average 5.8 games won and 2.93 lost; first sets average 5.4 won and 3.93 lost.
- Nine of the 15 matches were won 2-0.
That scoreline is the most one-sided result in the six matches most recently listed for him, and it is his only double-bagel in that group.
It is a single match against an unranked opponent, so it says more about his current clay form than about the level he will face here; his 9-5 record across 14 clay matches remains the sturdier guide to this fixture. What it does confirm is that he arrives off a win rather than a defeat.
- 20 September 2026: beat unranked Simone Agostini 6-0 6-0, 12 games to 0, in a completed clay match.
- It is the most recent of six matches listed for him, the others dating from 19 to 27 August 2026.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Nijboer has the stronger recent clay record, higher ranking and more complete serving and returning numbers.
- Nijboer is 13-2 on clay over his last 15 completed matches, with 77.1% of sets and 62.5% of games won.
- Juan Mano is 9-5 on clay over his last 14 completed matches, with no serve or return metrics available.
- Nijboer won M15 Madrid and the Gijón ITF title in September, including a 6-3 6-1 win over Sander Jong.
- Juan Mano lost to higher-ranked Alexander Ritschard in August, winning only seven games in that match.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostRyan NijboerEstimated chance68%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' second sets average fewer than nine games, making under 9.5 the more supported side.
- Nijboer's average second-set total games on clay is 8.73.
- Juan Mano's average second-set total games on clay is 8.64.
- The line is 9.5, with both averages below it.
- Nijboer has a 13-2 second-set record, suggesting he often closes sets quickly.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average just under 21.5 games, and Nijboer's frequent straight-set wins point to a slightly shorter match.
- Nijboer's average total games on clay is 21.1 across 15 matches.
- Juan Mano's average total games on clay is 21.3 across 14 matches.
- The line is 21.5, with both averages slightly below it.
- Nijboer has won 9 of 15 clay matches in straight sets, which tends to reduce total games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 21.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The first-set game averages fall just short of the 9.5 line, pointing to a slightly shorter opening set.
- Nijboer's average first-set total games on clay is 9.33.
- Juan Mano's average first-set total games on clay is 9.43.
- The line is 9.5, with both averages sitting slightly below it.
- Nijboer has played only 1 first-set tiebreak in 15 clay matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance54%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Nijboer has been far more dominant in second sets, while Juan Mano has been even in that set.
- Nijboer has a 13-2 second-set record on clay over 15 matches.
- Juan Mano has a 7-7 second-set record on clay over 14 matches.
- Nijboer's average second-set games won is 5.8 and lost is 2.9.
- Juan Mano's average second-set games won is 4.5 and lost is 4.1.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostRyan NijboerEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Recent clay matches for both players more often finish in two sets, and Nijboer in particular wins many 2-0.
- Nijboer has won 9 of his last 15 clay matches 2-0.
- Juan Mano has lost 0-2 three times in his last 14 clay matches.
- Combined, 19 of 29 recent clay matches were decided in two sets.
- Both players' average total sets sit below the 2.5 line.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Nijboer's higher ranking and strong recent form give him a slight first-set advantage, though both players start well.
- Nijboer has a 10-5 first-set record on clay over 15 matches.
- Juan Mano has a 10-4 first-set record on clay over 14 matches.
- Nijboer is ranked 482, while Juan Mano is ranked 623.
- Nijboer has won six straight completed clay matches in the recent sample.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonRyan NijboerEstimated chance58%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Recent clay matches for both players have usually finished without a tiebreak, so no is the more likely outcome.
- Nijboer has played a tiebreak in 4 of his last 15 clay matches.
- Juan Mano has played a tiebreak in 3 of his last 14 clay matches.
- Combined, 22 of 29 recent clay matches had no tiebreak.
- Nijboer has played only 1 first-set tiebreak in 15 clay matches.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance70%

Previous match context available

Ryan Nijboer

13W 2L

6-3 6-3#878Iannis Miletich

6-3 6-1#581Sander Jong

4-6 6-0 6-3#874Anas Mazdrashki

6-3 6-2—Samuel De Felipe Garcia

6-1 6-1#667Ignacio Parisca

5-7 6-2 6-2#891Alejandro Manzanera Pertusa

6-4 7-6(4)#545Martin Van Der Meerschen

7-6(2) 6-2#891Alejandro Manzanera Pertusa

6-2 4-6 6-1—Bernardo Munk Mesa

6-1 7-6(4)—Mateo Luis Alvarez Sarmiento

4-6 6-2 6-3—Mario Arce Fernandez

6-4 5-7 7-6(1)#710Carles Hernandez

6-3 6-1#895Tomas Curras Abasolo

6-3 6-2#380Tommaso Compagnucci

6-2 6-1#375Murkel Dellien

Alejandro Juan Mano

10W 5L

6-0 6-0—Simone Agostini

4-6 6-0 6-1#496Alexander Ritschard

6-4 6-4#763Alejandro Turriziani Alvarez

1-6 6-2 6-2#336Carlos Sanchez Jover

7-6(3) 6-1—Sergi Fita Juan

7-6(6) 4-6 7-5#630Pedro Rodenas

6-3 6-4#1149Alejandro Garcia

6-2 6-4#434Sergi Perez Contri

3-6 6-2 6-2—Javier Munoz Fuster

6-1 6-2#423Louis Wessels

3-6 6-3 2-0 ret.#767Jakub Nicod

6-2 5-7 6-4#581Sander Jong

6-3 6-4#821Karl Friberg

6-4 6-0—Max Van Nunen

7-6(2) 6-4#478Izan Almazan Valiente

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

RNRyan NijboerNijboer

Last 15

5–4

9 core stats · 0 even

Alejandro Juan ManoManoAM

Ryan Nijboer carries the stronger recent form — Alejandro Juan Mano's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1560.7%+18.8pp79.5%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1574.2%+15.7pp58.5%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1553.1%+7.1pp46.0%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/154.3+4.10.2

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/153.10.7 fewer2.4

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1545.9%+0.8pp46.7%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1546.4%+4.4pp50.8%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1562.7%+5.2pp57.5%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1555.5%+4.1pp51.4%

Serve · 3–2

60.7%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+18.8pp79.5%

74.2%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+15.7pp58.5%

53.1%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+7.1pp46.0%

4.3Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+4.10.2

3.1Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/150.7 fewer2.4

Return · 0–1

45.9%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+0.8pp46.7%

Pressure · 1–1

46.4%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+4.4pp50.8%

62.7%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+5.2pp57.5%

Points · 1–0

55.5%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+4.1pp51.4%

Ryan Nijboer

Alejandro Juan Mano

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Ryan Nijboer

Ryan Nijboer

Ryan Nijboer 2-0

Ryan Nijboer

Result0 of 1 landed

Games1 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Ryan Nijboer

Alejandro Juan Mano

Stat Battle