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Predictions graded

Pierluigi Basile #553Italy1Giovanni Oradini #681Italy2

Sets 6-4 · 3-6 · 1-6Mon 21 Sept 2026, 12:00 Predictions gradedQ3Clay

Predictions4–544%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantagePierluigi Basile · 128 places

Pierluigi Basile

Italy

Right-hander with a one-handed backhand, ranked No. 553. All 15 matches in his recent stored sample were on clay, where he has 11 wins.

Current ranking: #553
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Giovanni Oradini

Italy

Left-hander ranked No. 681. All 15 matches in his recent stored sample were on clay, where he has eight wins.

Current ranking: #681
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 21 Sep 2026, 10:32 · Europe/Bucharest

Basile meets Oradini in the final qualifying round in Genoa, a week after beating him 6-4 7-6 on clay.

Basile's 11-4 clay record and his 12-of-15 first-set wins make him the likelier winner, though Oradini's serve keeps it close. The only quoted price, Basile at 1.45, asks for about 69% — no quoted price here is worth taking.

Context

Basile is the higher-ranked of the two at 553 to 681 and owns the only head-to-head result in the record.
A straight-set win on the same surface five days before this meeting gives Basile a recent reference point, but a 13-10 game split and a second-set tiebreak show the match turned on a few points, so one result settles little.
- 14 September 2026, clay: Basile won 6-4 7-6, taking 13 games to Oradini's 10
- The second set went to a tiebreak, and the match is the only meeting between the two in the supplied record
Oradini, ranked 681, is the lower-ranked player here but holds the better serve figures of the two.
Basile's advantage comes from return and total point numbers rather than his own delivery, so an efficient serving day from Oradini is the most plausible route to a closer match than the head-to-head suggests.
- Last 15 clay matches to 20 September 2026, 14 with serve data: 63.1% first serves in (594/942)
- 73.4% first-serve points won (436/594) and 5.4 aces per match (75 in 14 matches)
- 2.1 double faults per match (30 in 14 matches)
Basile's starts are the most one-sided phase in his recent clay record, with the opening set going his way four times out of five.
The first set is where his record is strongest, and those sets have mostly been short, with only two tiebreaks in the 15-match sample; an early lead would put the match on his terms rather than Oradini's.
- First sets across 15 clay matches, 19 July to 20 September 2026: 12 wins, 3 losses
- First sets average 5.7 games won to 3.3 lost, with 2 tiebreaks in the sample

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Pierluigi Basile

1.45fair 1.59

BetBugs 63% · Market 69%

−6.0ppshort

Basile holds the better clay win rate, the slightly better return and point numbers, and beat the same opponent in straight sets on this surface a week ago.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Basile holds the better clay win rate, the slightly better return and point numbers, and beat the same opponent in straight sets on this surface a week ago.
- Basile is 11-4 on clay in his last 15, winning 58.4% of games and 53.8% of points
- Oradini is 8-7 on clay, with 55.3% of games and 52.7% of points won
- Basile won their 14 September clay meeting 6-4 7-6 (13-10 on games)
- Basile has taken the opening set in 12 of 15 clay matches
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostPierluigi BasileEstimated chance63%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Opening sets in both players' recent clay matches tend to end before ten games.
- Basile's first sets average 9.0 total games, Oradini's 9.7
- First-set tiebreaks are rare in both samples (2 of 15 each)
- Basile's first sets average 5.7 games won to 3.3 lost
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Oradini's second sets are notably short, and tiebreaks are rare for both players.
- Basile's second sets average 9.7 total games, Oradini's 9.0
- Oradini's second sets average 5.4 games won to 3.6 lost
- Second-set tiebreaks are uncommon in both samples
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' clay matches sit right around this line and their head-to-head went past it.
- Basile's clay matches average 21.9 total games, Oradini's 21.3
- Basile's clay matches average 2.33 sets, Oradini's 2.27
- Their 14 September meeting produced 23 games
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Basile has started clay matches clearly better than Oradini and took the first set in the previous meeting between them.
- Basile has won 12 of 15 first sets on clay, Oradini 8 of 15
- Basile took the opening set 6-4 in their 14 September meeting
- Basile's first sets average 5.7 games won against 3.3 lost
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonPierluigi BasileEstimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set finishes dominate the recent clay records of both players.
- Basile has 10 straight-set results in 15 clay matches
- Oradini has 11 straight-set results in 15 clay matches
- Both average under 2.35 sets per clay match
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance61%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players are strong in second sets, but Basile's game and point numbers are marginally better in that phase.
- Basile has won 11 of 15 second sets on clay, Oradini 10 of 15
- Basile's second sets average 5.6 games won against 4.1 lost
- He won the second set 7-6 in their 14 September meeting
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostPierluigi BasileEstimated chance57%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Most of both players' recent clay matches finished without a tiebreak.
- Basile has had a tiebreak in 5 of 15 clay matches, Oradini in 4 of 15
- Basile has 10 straight-set results in 15 clay matches
- Oradini's latest match finished 6-2 6-2 without a tiebreak
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined double-fault rate is below the line, helped by Oradini's low count.
- Basile averages 3.0 double faults per clay match, Oradini 2.1
- The combined average of 5.1 sits below the 5.5 line
- Basile has 10 straight-set clay results, reducing service games played
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 5.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Oradini's serve produces most of the aces expected here, with the combined average marginally above the line.
- Oradini averages 5.4 aces per clay match, Basile 3.2
- Oradini's 75 aces come from 14 matches with serve data; Basile's 48 from 15
- The line sits just below the combined 8.6 average
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance51%

Pierluigi Basile

11W 4L

6-0 6-2—Unknown Player

6-2 6-1#455Juan Cruz Martin Manzano

6-4 7-6(3)#681Giovanni Oradini

6-0 7-6(4)#542Adrian Oetzbach

3-6 7-6(2) 7-6(2)—Roberto Perez Socas

6-4 6-0—David Aguiar Johansson

6-0 6-4—Filippo Valdetara

6-7(4) 6-2 6-3#613Alexander Weis

3-6 6-3 6-0#382Laurent Lokoli

6-4 6-3#738Nico Hipfl

6-2 7-5—Lorenzo Comino

6-1 6-3—Lorenzo Beraldo

6-4 1-6 7-5#209Maxim Mrva

7-6(4) 6-4—Pierre Antoine Tailleu

6-4 5-7 6-2#772Daniele Rapagnetta

Giovanni Oradini

8W 7L

6-2 6-2#862Kody Pearson

6-4 7-6(3)#553Pierluigi Basile

6-7(7) 7-5 6-2#465Matthew William Donald

7-5 7-6(4)#386Massimo Giunta

6-3 6-3#898Marcello Serafini

6-3 2-6 6-3#379Andrej Martin

7-6(5) 6-2#887Pavlos Tsitsipas

6-2 6-3—Alexander Wagner

6-2 6-0—Patrick Jozwicki

6-4 6-2#613Alexander Weis

6-2 6-0#455Juan Cruz Martin Manzano

6-3 6-1—Federico Bove

4-6 6-3 6-4#494Federico Arnaboldi

6-3 6-4—Ludovico Vaccari

6-4 3-6 7-5#470Oleg Prihodko

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

PBPierluigi BasileBasile

Last 15

3–6

9 core stats · 0 even

Giovanni OradiniOradiniGO

Giovanni Oradini carries the stronger recent form — Pierluigi Basile's route runs through return.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1558.4%+4.7pp63.1%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1571.8%+1.6pp73.4%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1554.5%+0.8pp53.7%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/153.2+2.25.4

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/153.00.9 fewer2.1

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1544.2%+5.1pp39.1%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1541.8%+8.8pp50.6%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1562.7%+4.0pp66.7%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1553.8%+1.1pp52.7%

Serve · 1–4

58.4%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+4.7pp63.1%

71.8%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+1.6pp73.4%

54.5%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+0.8pp53.7%

3.2Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+2.25.4

3.0Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/150.9 fewer2.1

Return · 1–0

44.2%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+5.1pp39.1%

Pressure · 0–2

41.8%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+8.8pp50.6%

62.7%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+4.0pp66.7%

Points · 1–0

53.8%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+1.1pp52.7%