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Predictions graded

Moez Echargui #378Tunisia2Karl Poling #460United States0

Sets 6-4 · 7-6Mon 21 Sept 2026, 10:25 Predictions gradedQ3Hard

Predictions5–456%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMoez Echargui · 82 places

Moez Echargui

Tunisia

The right-hander reached a career-best No. 134 in 2025 and won the previous Saint-Tropez edition.

Current ranking: #378
Peak ranking: #134 · 2025
Current age: 33
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Karl Poling

United States

The left-hander won his first professional singles title in August 2026 and reached a career-best singles ranking later that month.

Current ranking: #460
Peak ranking: #452 · 2026
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 21 Sep 2026, 09:28 · Europe/Bucharest

Saint-Tropez qualifying pits the 2025 champion, Echargui, against Poling, who won his first pro title in August and has served better across their recent hard-court samples.

Poling is the slightly more likely winner, but the gap is narrow and he has also lost to players ranked 688 and 816 this window. Poling at 3.2 is the only reviewed price that pays enough; Echargui at 1.3 asks far too much.

Context

Both players return the day after qualifying, but Echargui's opener required three sets after losing the first-set tie-break whereas Poling completed a straight-sets win. That creates a concrete recovery and court-time asymmetry immediately before this fixture. Exact match durations are not available, so the scores establish differing workload without proving a physical limitation.
- Echargui beat Potenza 6-7(3), 6-4, 6-3 in the first qualifying round.
- Poling beat Ghazouani Durand 6-2, 6-1 in the first qualifying round.
ConfirmedSources checked 21 Sep 2026, 09:26 · Europe/BucharestMoez Echargui player pagewww.tennis.com · 20 Sep 2026Karl Poling player pagewww.tennis.com · 20 Sep 2026
Echargui has been a far stronger starter than finisher on hard courts in this window.
Echargui has won 8 of 14 opening sets on hard courts in this window, but only 4 of 14 second sets, where he has averaged 4.21 games won to 5.36 lost. That 4-10 second-set record is the phase of his recent matches that has hurt him most. The sample is 14 matches from 20 July to 20 September 2026, with one retirement excluded, so it is a recent pattern rather than a settled trait.
- Set 1: 8 wins, 6 losses, 5.43 games won and 5.29 games lost per match across 14 hard-court matches (20 July-20 September 2026).
- Set 2: 4 wins, 10 losses, 4.21 games won and 5.36 games lost per match across the same 14 matches.
- Three first-set tiebreaks and one second-set tiebreak in that sample; one retired match was excluded.
Poling's 15-match hard-court sample splits into four 2-0 wins, four 2-1 wins, three 0-2 losses and four 1-2 losses. His second sets have been his best phase, 9 wins against 6 losses with 5.27 games won to 5.00 lost, while his first sets sit at 7-8. That balance is why a two-set outcome for either player is a narrow call in this fixture rather than a safe expectation, and the middle set is where Poling has most often taken control.
- Eight of 15 completed hard-court matches went to a deciding set (10 July-20 September 2026), with Poling 4-4 in those matches.
- Scorelines across the 15 matches: four 2-0 wins, four 2-1 wins, three 0-2 losses and four 1-2 losses.
- Second sets: 9 wins, 6 losses, 5.27 games won and 5.00 games lost per match across the 15 matches.
The 2025 title gives this return a clear tournament-specific stake and places Echargui's presence in Saint-Tropez in context. It is a concrete prior-edition achievement rather than evidence of a current playing advantage. His 2026 route starts in qualifying, so last year's main-draw success does not provide a direct draw or seeding benefit in this match.
- Echargui defeated Dan Added 6-3, 6-4 to win the 2025 Saint-Tropez Open.
- The 2026 Saint-Tropez event is scheduled for 21-27 September.
ConfirmedSources checked 21 Sep 2026, 09:26 · Europe/Bucharest2025 Saint-Tropez Openen.wikipedia.org · 21 Sep 2025Saint-Tropez Open overviewwww.atptour.com · 7 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 3.20
The read
Poling's serve numbers and slightly better hard-court record in this window give him a narrow edge over a similarly ranked opponent.
- Poling 8-7 in his last 15 completed hard-court matches; Echargui 6-8 in 14
- Poling 69.1% first serves in and 64.1% of those points won across 1209 serve points
- Poling won his first professional singles title in August 2026
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostKarl PolingEstimated chance53%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' opening sets typically run past nine games, with tiebreaks appearing in a fair share of them.
- Echargui's first sets average 10.7 total games; Poling's average 10.1
- First-set tiebreaks: 3 for each player
- Combined first-set average is about 10.4 games
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined second-set games figure sits just above nine and a half, making the over the slightly better side.
- Echargui's second sets average 9.6 total games; Poling's average 10.3
- Second-set tiebreaks: 1 for Echargui, 3 for Poling
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The two players' average match lengths sit right on the line, with the combined figure just below 25.5.
- Echargui averages 24.7 games per tracked hard match
- Poling averages 26.0 games per tracked hard match
- Pooled average across 29 matches is about 25.4 games
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 25.5Estimated chance53%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Poling has been markedly the better second-set player recently while Echargui has struggled badly in that phase.
- Poling has won 9 of 15 second sets on hard
- Echargui has won 4 of 14 second sets on hard
- Poling's second-set games average is 5.27 won against 5.00 lost
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostKarl PolingEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Roughly half of each player's recent hard-court matches finished in two sets, leaving the straight-sets outcome marginally favoured.
- Echargui's 14 hard matches average 2.43 sets; Poling's 15 average 2.53
- Six of Echargui's 14 matches and eight of Poling's 15 went to three sets
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Echargui's first-set record in this window is clearly better than Poling's, which offsets the overall match edge.
- Echargui has won 8 of 14 first sets on hard
- Poling has won 7 of 15 first sets on hard
- Poling won his qualifying opener 6-2, 6-1
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMoez EcharguiEstimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Most of these two players' recent matches finished without a tiebreak, which is the more likely single outcome.
- Matches with at least one tiebreak: 5 of 14 for Echargui, 6 of 15 for Poling
- Combined rate is 11 of 29 matches
- Both players won their qualifying openers without a tiebreak in the final set
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance60%

Previous match context available

Moez Echargui

7W 8L

6-7(3) 6-4 6-3#538Luca Potenza

6-7(2) 7-5 6-1#146Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

7-5 1-6 7-6(2)#231Billy Harris

6-4 6-2#325Lucas Poullain

2-6 6-4 6-4#192Jack Pinnington Jones

6-4 6-4#129Hugo Dellien

6-3 6-4#46Hubert Hurkacz

6-4 2-6 7-6(5)#191Moise Kouame

6-2 5-0 ret.#75Camilo Ugo Carabelli

7-6(5) 7-6(5)#103Otto Virtanen

5-7 6-2 6-4#92Michael Zheng

6-4 6-3#449Spencer Johnson

6-2 7-5#322Andres Martin

7-5 6-1—Jordan Lee

6-4 6-4#136Lloyd Harris

Karl Poling

8W 7L

6-2 6-1#521Yanis Ghazouani Durand

7-6(5) 6-7(6) 7-6(5)#816Nikola Slavic

6-4 6-3#688Thomas Fancutt

3-6 6-3 6-2#134Stefanos Sakellaridis

5-7 7-6(5) 6-4#762Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes

6-4 4-6 7-6(4)—Nikita Filin

7-6(1) 6-4#866Axel Nefve

3-6 7-6(7) 6-1#688Thomas Fancutt

6-4 6-4#850Jesse Flores

6-2 6-4#628Aidan Kim

3-6 6-3 7-5#337Tyler Zink

6-3 6-4#634Kokoro Isomura

7-6(5) 5-7 7-5#447Kenta Miyoshi

4-6 6-3 6-3#757Matt Kuhar

6-3 6-4#447Kenta Miyoshi

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MEMoez EcharguiEchargui

Last 15

3–5

9 core stats · 1 even

Karl PolingPolingKP

Karl Poling carries the stronger recent form — Moez Echargui's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In56.8%+12.3pp69.1%

1st Serve Won67.1%+3.0pp64.1%

2nd Serve Won48.9%+3.8pp52.7%

Aces / Match4.5+2.42.1

Double Faults / Match3.10.4 fewer2.7

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won39.6%—39.2%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted41.6%+4.5pp37.1%

Break Pts Saved55.8%+2.4pp58.2%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.3%+0.8pp50.1%

Serve · 2–3

56.8%1st Serve In+12.3pp69.1%

67.1%1st Serve Won+3.0pp64.1%

48.9%2nd Serve Won+3.8pp52.7%

4.5Aces / Match+2.42.1

3.1Double Faults / Match0.4 fewer2.7

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

39.6%Return Pts Won—39.2%

Pressure · 1–1

41.6%Break Pts Converted+4.5pp37.1%

55.8%Break Pts Saved+2.4pp58.2%

Points · 0–1

49.3%Total Pts Won+0.8pp50.1%