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Predictions graded

Lanlana Tararudee #78Thailand2Moyuka Uchijima #100Japan1

Sets 6-4 · 6-7 · 6-2Mon 21 Sept 2026, 03:10 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions4–640%

Edges4–180%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageLanlana Tararudee · 22 places

Lanlana Tararudee

Thailand

WTA listed her at No. 78 in late July 2026, up from No. 131 in January. Her WTA profile recorded a 38-15 singles season at the time of the ranking update.

Current ranking: #78
Peak ranking: #78 · 2026
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 171 cm

Moyuka Uchijima

Japan

The WTA lists clay as her favourite surface. She reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 47.

Current ranking: #100
Peak ranking: #47
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 174 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 20 Sep 2026, 19:22 · Europe/Bucharest

Tararudee is the higher-ranked player with the better hard-court record, but Uchijima's seven wins from nine second sets and Tararudee's recent loss to No.

87 Maria Timofeeva keep this first round close. Expect Tararudee to win. Two quotes are worth a look — over 22.5 games at 2.2 and Uchijima with a 3.5-game start at 1.9; Tararudee at 1.44 to win, 1.5 for the first set and under 2.5 sets at 1.44 ask too much.

Context

Uchijima, ranked 104, has been steadier once a match is underway than she has been at the start of it.
The second set is where Uchijima has been most reliable in this sample, so an early Tararudee lead would not settle this first round on this evidence. It also means opening-set performance is the weaker guide to how the match ends.
- Set 1 across nine completed hard-court matches (28 July–26 August 2026): 4 wins, 5 losses, 4.22 games won and 4.33 games lost per set.
- Set 2 across the same nine matches: 7 wins, 2 losses, 5.11 games won and 4.33 games lost per set.
- One retirement was excluded from the nine-match sample; two of the nine matches included a tiebreak.
Tararudee, the No. 61, has spent a lot of recent court time in longer matches.
It is the basis for expecting a longer first round here, though six of the same 15 matches finished in straight sets, so length is a lean rather than a given. Her straight-set wins over Emerson Jones were both decided by at least four games.
- 15 completed hard-court matches, 13 July–2 September 2026: scorelines of 2-0 (six), 2-1 (five), 1-2 (one) and 0-2 (three).
- Average total games 23.07 and average 2.4 sets per match across the same sample.
- Four of the 15 matches included at least one tiebreak.
It is the clearest recent example of the No. 61 losing to an opponent ranked well below her.
This result is the main reason a first-round match against the No. 104 should not be treated as routine: Tararudee can be taken the distance and beaten by a player ranked in the 80s, which keeps Uchijima's chances open even though the ranking gap favours Tararudee.
- 22 August 2026: lost 6-7, 6-2, 6-7 to Maria Timofeeva (ranked 87) on hard courts.
- Games in that match: Tararudee 18, Timofeeva 16.
- Single-match sample; Timofeeva was ranked 87 against Tararudee's 61 at the time.
Tararudee's Chennai run makes this Seoul appearance part of a recent Thai breakthrough with a direct tournament link: the prior reference point came here in 2017. That history adds context to her place in this draw. It is a past milestone rather than a current playing condition.
- Tararudee's Chennai semifinal was identified as the first Thai tour-level semifinal since Kumkhum's Seoul run in 2017.
ConfirmedSources checked 20 Sep 2026, 19:20 · Europe/BucharestAO 2026's Grand Slam debuts: Sawangkaew, Bartunkova, Oliynykova and morewww.wtatennis.com · 17 Jan 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Lanlana Tararudee

1.50fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 66.7%

−4.7ppshort

Tararudee has been the stronger starter in her recent hard-court matches, while Uchijima has lost more opening sets than she has won.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Tararudee is the higher-ranked player and has a clearly stronger hard-court record over the last 15 matches.
- Hard-court last 15: 11-4, with 55.8% of games won (193-153)
- Ranked 61 against 104; set 1 record on hard 10-5 versus Uchijima's 4-5
- Recent losses came to Noskova (6), Timofeeva (87) and Sawangkaew (88)
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonLanlana TararudeeEstimated chance62%

Games2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.90
The read
Tararudee's typical winning margin is under four games, so Uchijima can cover even in defeat.
- Tararudee's net games across 15 hard-court matches: 193 won, 153 lost (+40, +2.67 per match)
- Four of her 15 matches were losses, several by wide margins
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonMoyuka Uchijima +3.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Uchijima's shorter opening sets pull the combined expectation just below the line.
- Uchijima's opening sets average 8.56 games
- Blended set-1 average across the two players is about 9.4 games
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets in both players' recent hard-court matches have generally finished below ten games.
- Blended second-set average is about 9.3 games across 24 hard-court matches
- Tararudee's second sets average 9.27 games
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Their combined recent hard-court matches have averaged slightly more than the 22.5 line.
- Tararudee averages 23.07 total games across 15 hard-court matches
- Uchijima averages 21.78 total games across 9 hard-court matches
- Blended average across 24 matches is about 22.6 games
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 22.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Tararudee has been the stronger starter in her recent hard-court matches, while Uchijima has lost more opening sets than she has won.
- Set 1 on hard: 10 wins from 15 matches for Tararudee
- Uchijima has won only 4 of 9 opening sets on hard
- Tararudee averages 5.4 games won and 4.53 lost in set 1
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonLanlana TararudeeEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Both players' recent hard-court records show straight-set finishes are more common than three-setters.
- Tararudee has won 6 of her 15 hard-court matches in straight sets
- Uchijima has won or lost in straight sets in 6 of 9 hard-court matches
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Tararudee is the stronger player overall, but her edge in the second set is smaller than in the first.
- Set 2 on hard: 8 wins from 15 matches for Tararudee
- Uchijima has won 7 of 9 second sets on hard
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostLanlana TararudeeEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most recent hard-court matches for both players finished without a tiebreak.
- Combined 6 tiebreak matches in 24 recent hard-court matches
- Tararudee's first sets average 9.93 games with 3 tiebreaks in 15
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance70%

Prediction history

Lanlana Tararudee: 11/12 recent winner projections matched

11 of 12 comparable winner projections favouring Lanlana Tararudee matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Lanlana Tararudee12 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

1 Aug·WTA Toronto

#78Lanlana Tararudee2-0#123Qinwen Zheng

BetBugsLanlana Tararudee to win·62%

Matched

1 Aug 2026

WTA Toronto

#78Lanlana Tararudee2-0#123Qinwen Zheng

Lanlana Tararudee to win

62%probability

Lanlana Tararudee won

Matched

23 Jul·WTA Prague

#44Nikola Bartunkova1-2#82Lanlana Tararudee

BetBugsLanlana Tararudee to win·55%

Matched

23 Jul 2026

WTA Prague

#44Nikola Bartunkova1-2#82Lanlana Tararudee

Lanlana Tararudee to win

55%probability

Lanlana Tararudee won

Matched

21 Jul·WTA Prague

#556Jana Kovackova1-2#91Lanlana Tararudee

BetBugsLanlana Tararudee to win·78%

Matched

21 Jul 2026

WTA Prague

#556Jana Kovackova1-2#91Lanlana Tararudee

Lanlana Tararudee to win

78%probability

Lanlana Tararudee won

Matched

19 Jul·WTA Istanbul

#98Hanne Vandewinkel1-2#91Lanlana Tararudee

BetBugsLanlana Tararudee to win·55%

Matched

19 Jul 2026

WTA Istanbul

#98Hanne Vandewinkel1-2#91Lanlana Tararudee

Lanlana Tararudee to win

55%probability

Lanlana Tararudee won

Matched

18 Jul·WTA Istanbul

#206Vendula Valdmannova0-2#91Lanlana Tararudee

BetBugsLanlana Tararudee to win·62%

Matched

18 Jul 2026

WTA Istanbul

#206Vendula Valdmannova0-2#91Lanlana Tararudee

Lanlana Tararudee to win

62%probability

Lanlana Tararudee won

Matched

Lanlana Tararudee

11W 4L

6-4 6-2#6Linda Noskova

6-3 6-7(4) 6-2#113Elvina Kalieva

7-6(5) 2-6 7-6(4)#87Maria Timofeeva

6-4 6-3#88Mananchaya Sawangkaew

7-5 7-5#131Emerson Jones

7-6(2) 6-2#131Emerson Jones

6-3 6-4#52Qinwen Zheng

6-0 6-3#42Daria Snigur

7-6(4) 3-6 7-6(6)#34Nikola Bartunkova

6-3 5-7 6-2#442Jana Kovackova

6-4 4-6 6-3#84Hanne Vandewinkel

6-2 6-0#153Vendula Valdmannova

6-3 6-2#285Vera Zvonareva

4-6 6-4 6-1#163Gabriela Andrea Knutson

6-2 6-1#307Kyoka Okamura

Moyuka Uchijima

6W 9L

6-2 2-6 7-6(6)#183Lucie Havlickova

6-3 6-3#225Polona Hercog

6-3 6-0#112Harriet Dart

6-3 6-3#2Aryna Sabalenka

6-3 6-4#44Cristina Bucsa

6-2 6-4#115Himeno Sakatsume

6-4 6-7(9) 6-3#140Maddison Inglis

2-6 6-4 7-5#210Hayu Kinoshita

6-1 6-4#362Miho Kuramochi

7-5 6-4#69Anna Bondar

6-2 6-4#155Elina Avanesyan

6-4 6-7(2) 7-5#216Irene Burillo

5-7 6-2 7-5#41Oleksandra Oliynykova

6-1 3-6 7-5#456Esther Adeshina

3-6 6-0 4-1 ret.#96Claire Liu

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

LTLanlana TararudeeTararudee

Last 15

7–2

9 core stats · 0 even

Moyuka UchijimaUchijimaMU

Lanlana Tararudee carries the stronger recent form — Moyuka Uchijima's route runs through serve.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In53.0%+3.1pp56.1%

1st Serve Won71.3%+5.6pp65.7%

2nd Serve Won47.0%+7.8pp39.2%

Aces / Match4.5+1.62.9

Double Faults / Match4.31.2 fewer5.5

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won45.6%+0.8pp44.8%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted45.1%+3.0pp48.1%

Break Pts Saved60.5%+6.4pp54.1%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won52.6%+3.2pp49.4%

Serve · 4–1

53.0%1st Serve In+3.1pp56.1%

71.3%1st Serve Won+5.6pp65.7%

47.0%2nd Serve Won+7.8pp39.2%

4.5Aces / Match+1.62.9

4.3Double Faults / Match1.2 fewer5.5

Return · 1–0

45.6%Return Pts Won+0.8pp44.8%

Pressure · 1–1

45.1%Break Pts Converted+3.0pp48.1%

60.5%Break Pts Saved+6.4pp54.1%

Points · 1–0

52.6%Total Pts Won+3.2pp49.4%

Lanlana Tararudee

Moyuka Uchijima

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Moyuka Uchijima +3.5

Over 22.5

Lanlana Tararudee

Lanlana Tararudee

Under 2.5

Result1 of 1 landed

Games2 of 4 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Lanlana Tararudee

Moyuka Uchijima

Stat Battle